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New Algorithms for Aircraft Intent Inference and Trajectory Prediction
Abstract
Aircraft tracking, intent inference, and trajectory predictions are important tools for enhanced capacity in air traffic control operations. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that performs these three tasks accurately. The algorithm uses a hybrid estimation algorithm to estimate the aircraft's state and flight mode. These estimates are combined with knowledge about air traffic control regulations, the aircraft's flight plan, and the environment to infer the pilot's intent. Trajectory predictions are computed as a function of the aircraft's motion (state and mode estimates) and the inferred intent The result is an algorithm that provides, in real-time, accurate intent and trajectory predictions for aircraft. We analyze and test the performance of the proposed algorithm with various scenarios representative of current and future aircraft operations within the National Airspace System.
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“Many efforts have been done in the past for improving the performances of the operation prediction even by Machine Learning ( Yepes et al., 2007 ), but trajectory prediction remains one main challenge for improving the performances of the air traffic management system.”
From Status quo and challenges in air transport management research (2024) · cites this paper as Yepes et al., 2007
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Cited by
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Status quo and challenges in air transport management research
Wandelt, S., Antoniou, C., Birolini, S., Delahaye, D., Dresner, M., Fu, X., Gössling, S., Hong, S.-J., Odoni, A. R., Zanin, M., et al. (2024) · Journal of the Air Transport Research Society · doi:10.1016/j.jatrs.2024.100014 · Cited by 67
“Many efforts have been done in the past for improving the performances of the operation prediction even by Machine Learning ( Yepes et al., 2007 ), but trajectory prediction remains one main challenge for improving the performances of the air traffic management system.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Yepes, J. L., Hwang, I., & Rotea, M.
- Affiliations
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics
- Published
- 2007-03
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 370-382
- ISSN
- 0731-5090 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-3884
- OpenAlex
- W2169030242
- Cited by
- 162
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 6.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Guidance Control and Dynamics (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Purdue University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Air Traffic Management and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Target Tracking and Data Fusion in Sensor Networks
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Aerospace Engineering and Control Systems
- Keywords
- trajectory prediction, aircraft tracking, hybrid estimation, air traffic control, flight plan, real-time prediction, National Airspace System
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: New Algorithms for Aircraft Intent Inference and Trajectory Prediction. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.2514/1.26750
- The paper
- Yepes, J. L., Hwang, I., & Rotea, M. (2007). New Algorithms for Aircraft Intent Inference and Trajectory Prediction. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.26750