Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia
Open accessAbstract
Fire risk is influenced by a number of factors – including fuels, terrain, land management, suppression and weather. This study assesses potential changes to one of these factors, fire-weather risk, associated with climate change. Fire-weather risk relates to how a combination of weather variables influences the risk of a fire starting or its rate of spread, intensity or difficulty of suppression. The study is based in south-east Australia, an area projected to become hotter and drier under climate change. The study uses fire danger indices, such as the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI), to provide an indication of fire risk based on various combinations of weather variables. It also indicates that the window available for prescribed burning may shift and narrow. It is likely that higher fire-weather risk in spring, summer and autumn will increasingly shift periods suitable for prescribed burning toward winter.
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Recent warming trends have been associated with an increase in fire activity in some regions.
“Recent warming trends have been associated with an increase in fire activity in some regions (Hennessy et al., 2005; Westerling et al., 2006; Flannigan et al., 2009; Spracklen et al., 2009), but whether or not this is a manifestation of global climate change remains controversial.”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Hennessy et al., 2005
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References 23 · Cited by 172
- Authors
- Hennessy, K. J., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J. M., Suppiah, R., & Ricketts, J. H.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Venue
- Aspendale, Vic., CSIRO
- Publisher
- Aspendale, Vic., CSIRO
- Published
- 2005
- OpenAlex
- W2282319524
- Cited by
- 172
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2024: 14 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 5.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- CSIRO
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, fire weather, fire risk, fire danger index, Forest Fire Danger Index, prescribed burning, seasonal shifts, south-eastern Australia, fire spread, fire suppression
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