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Attitudinal Market Segmentation Approach to Mode Choice and Ridership Forecasting: Structural Equation Modeling
Abstract
The San Francisco Bay Area Water Transit Authority is evaluating expanded ferry service, as required by the California Legislature. As part of this process, Cambridge Systematics developed forecasts using a combination of market research strategies and the addition of nontraditional variables into the mode choice modeling process. The focus of this work was on expanding the mode choice model to recognize travelers' attitudes and different market segments. Structural equation modeling was used to simultaneously identify the attitudes of travel behaviors and the causal relationships between traveler's socioeconomic profile and traveler attitudes. Six attitudinal factors were extracted, and three of these were used to partition the ferry-riding market into eight segments. These market segments were used to estimate stated preference mode choice models for 14 alternative modes, which separated the travelers' reactions to time savings by market segment and which recognized that mode choices are different for market segments that are sensitive to travel stress or the desire to help the environment. The new mode choice models were applied within the framework of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission's regional travel model and calibrated to match modal shares, modes of access to each ferry terminal, ridership by route and time period, and person trips by mode at screening line crossings. Additional validation tests of significant changes in ferry service in recent years were us…
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“These tools identify distinct risk groups and reveal how interconnected beliefs, emotions, ideologies, and digital engagement cultivate susceptibility (Bhatnagar & Ghose, 2004;Kang et al., 2020;Outwater et al., 2003;Verma, 2013;Yan et al., 2018).”
From Deepfakes, Democracy, and the Ethics of Synthetic Media: A Synthesis of the SOLARIS Project (2026) · cites this paper as Outwater et al., 2003
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References 13 · Cited by 112
Research works printed but not linked: 24
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Metadata
- Authors
- Outwater, M. L., Castleberry, S., Shiftan, Y., Ben-Akiva, M., Shuang Zhou, Y., & Kuppam, A.
- Affiliations
- Cambridge Systematics (United States) (US)
- Systems Planning, San Francisco Bay Area Water Transit Authority, 120 Broadway Street, San Francisco, CA 94111
- Technion – Israel Institute of Technology (IL)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Cambridge Systematics, 1300 Clay Street, Suite 1010, Oakland, CA 94612
- Venue
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2003-01
- Volume
- 1854
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 32-42
- ISSN
- 0361-1981 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-4052
- OpenAlex
- W2013256532
- Cited by
- 112
- References
- 13
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 10.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Keywords
- market segmentation, traveler attitudes, stated preference, travel stress, environmental concern, time savings
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