Cited by 41Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement AnalysisMonetary Policy and Economic ImpactBanking stability, regulation, efficiency

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

How Individuals Respond to a Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown

Open access
Gelman, Michael, Kariv, Shachar, Shapiro, Matthew, Silverman, Dan, Tadelis, Steven·2015·National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract

Using comprehensive account records, this paper examines how individuals adjusted spending and saving in response to a temporary drop in liquidity due to the 2013 U.S. government shutdown.The shutdown cut paychecks by 40% for affected employees, which was recovered within 2 weeks.Because the shutdown affected only the timing of payments, it provides a distinctive experiment allowing estimates of the response to a liquidity shock holding income constant.Spending dropped sharply, implying a naïve estimate of 58 cents less spending for every dollar of lost liquidity.This estimate overstates the consumption response.While many individuals had low liquid assets, they used multiple sources of short-term liquidity to smooth consumption.Sources of short-term liquidity include delaying recurring payments such as for mortgages and credit card balances.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3386/w21025

Cites

2 of 2 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • A number of recent papers document marginal propensities to consume out of transitory income that cannot be explained by reasonably-parameterized standard incomplete markets models without severe liquidity constraints.

    “A number of recent papers document marginal propensities to consume out of transitory income that cannot be explained by reasonablyparameterized standard incomplete markets models without severe liquidity constraints.”

    From Buy Now, Pay Later Credit: User Characteristics and Effects on Spending Patterns (2022) · cites this paper as Gelman, Kariv, Shapiro, Silverman, and Tadelis (2015)

    The paper’s “Paycheck Income and Total Spending” section estimates a substantial spending response to the temporary paycheck reduction, and its Conclusion discusses households with low liquid assets. But the cited paper does not establish that reasonably parameterized standard incomplete-markets models cannot explain such responses without severe liquidity constraints; it studies a brief delay in pay and ways workers smooth consumption through it. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 18

  1. Agarwal, Sumit, Chunlin Liu, and Nicholas S. Souleles (2007) "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates: Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, 115(6): 986-1019.
  2. Agarwal, Sumit, and Wenlan Qian (2014) "Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore," American Economic Review, 104(12): 4205-30.
  3. Baker, Scott (2018) "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming.
  4. Baker, Scott, and Constantine Yannelis (2017) "Income changes and consumption: Evidence from the 2013 federal government shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics 23: 99- 124.
  5. Bertrand, Marianne, and Adair Morse (2009) "Indebted Households and Tax Rebates," American Economic Review, 99(2): 418-23.
  6. Browning, Martin, and Thomas F. Crossley (2001) "Unemployment insurance benefit levels and consumption changes," Journal of Public Economics, 80(1): 1-23.
  7. Caner, Asena, and Edward N. Wolff (2004) "Asset poverty in the United States, 1984-99: Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Review of Income and Wealth, 50(4): 493-518.
  8. Chetty, Raj and Adam Szeidl (2007) "Consumption Commitments and Risk Preferences," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(2): 831-877.
  9. Gelman, Michael, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis (2014) "Harnessing Naturally Occurring Data to Measure the Response of Spending to Income," Science, 345(6193): 212-215.
  10. Grossman, Sanford J. and Guy Laroque (1990) "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Econometrica, 58(1): 25-51.
  11. Johnson, David S., Jonathan A. Parker and Nicholas S. Souleles (2006) "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001" American Economic Review 96(5) 1589-1610.
  12. Lusardi, Annamaria, Daniel Schneider, and Peter Tufano (2011) "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 42(1): 83-134.
  13. Olafsson, Arna and Michaela Pagel (2018) "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Forthcoming.
  14. Parker, Jonathan (2017) "Why Don't Households Smooth Consumption? Evidence from a 25 Million Dollar Experiment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(4): 153- 83.
  15. Parker, Jonathan A., Nicholas S. Souleles, David S. Johnson, and Robert McClelland (2013) "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, 103(6): 2530-53.
  16. Postlewaite, Andrew, Larry Samuelson, and Dan Silverman (2008) "Consumption Commitments and Employment Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, 75(2): 559-578.
  17. Shapiro, Matthew D., and Joel Slemrod (1995) "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding." American Economic Review, 85(1): 274- 283.
  18. Shapiro, Matthew D., and Joel Slemrod (2003) "Consumer Response to Tax Rebates," American Economic Review 93: 381-396

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
Gelman, M., Kariv, S., Shapiro, M., Silverman, D., & Tadelis, S.
Affiliations
National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2015-03
OpenAlex
W2807290823
Cited by
41
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 8 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1131500)
  • Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
Keywords
liquidity shocks, household expenditure, household savings, consumption smoothing, short-term liquidity, liquid assets, mortgage payments, credit card balances, household accounts

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review