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The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
Open accessAbstract
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 48 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.
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Cites
Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza
Mills, C. E., Robins, J. M., & Lipsitch, M. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03063 · Cited by 796
Frost, W. H. (1920) · Public Health Reports (1896-1970) · doi:10.2307/4575511 · Cited by 118
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How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey
Bartik, A., Bertrand, M., Cullen, Z., Glaeser, E., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w26989 · Cited by 760
Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
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COVID-19 Artificial Intelligence Diagnosis Using Only Cough Recordings
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Metadata
- Authors
- Barro, R., Ursúa, J., & Weng, J.
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2020-03
- OpenAlex
- W3011183947
- Cited by
- 800
- References
- 2
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Barro, R., Ursúa, J., & Weng, J. (2020). The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26866
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Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
