What Do Changes in State Test Scores Imply for Later Life Outcomes?
Open accessAbstract
In the three decades before the pandemic, mean achievement of U.S. 8th graders in math rose by more than half a standard deviation on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).Between 2019 and 2022, U.S. students had forfeited 40 percent of that rise.To anticipate the consequences of the recent decline, we investigate the past relationship between NAEP scores and students' later life outcomes by year and state of birth.We find that a standard deviation improvement in a birth cohort's 8th grade math achievement was associated with an 8 percent rise in income, as well as improved educational attainment and declines in teen motherhood, incarceration and arrest rates.If allowed to become permanent, our findings imply that the recent losses would represent a 1.6 percent decline in present value of lifetime earnings for the average K-12 student (or $19,400), totaling $900 billion for the 48 million students enrolled in public schools during the 2020-21 school year.
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References 16 · Cited by 11
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Bloomberg Philanthropies (2021) "Bloomberg Philanthropies Launches Historic $750 Million National Effort to Advance Public Charter Schools As Traditional District Schools Fail Children During COVID-19 Pandemic" Press Release, December 1, 2021.
- Murnane, Richard J., John B. Willett, Yves Duhaldeborde, John H. Tyler (2000) "How important are the cognitive skills of teenagers in predicting subsequent earnings?" Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 19, No. 4, 547-568 https://doi.org/10.1002/1520- 6688(200023)19:4%3C547::AID-PAM2%3E3.0.CO;2-%23 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2022) A Pragmatic Future for NAEP: Containing Costs and Updating Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26427. · DOI
- Ruggles, Stephen, Sarah Flood, Ronald Goeken, Megan Schouweiler and Matthew Sobek. IPUMS USA: Version 12.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: IPUMS, 2022. https://doi.org/10.18128/D010.V12. · DOI
- Authors
- Doty, E., Kane, T., Patterson, T., & Staiger, D.
- Affiliations
- Dartmouth College (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2022-12
- OpenAlex
- W4310713225
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 2
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Walton Family Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › Educational Outcomes and Influences
- Keywords
- later life outcomes, income, educational attainment, adolescent motherhood, incarceration, arrest rates, lifetime earnings, COVID-19 pandemic, birth cohort, public schools
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