The Effect of Convicton on Income Through the Life Cycle
Open accessAbstract
Existing studies of the impact of conviction on income and employment do not consider life cycle issues.We postulate that conviction reduces access to career jobs offering stable, long-term employment.Instead, conviction relegates offenders to spot market jobs, which may have higher pay at the outset of the career but do not offer stable employment or rapidly rising wages.Thus, first-time Conviction may increase the wages of young workers while decreasing the wages of older workers.We test our theory with data on federal offenders and find that first-time conviction has a positive and significant effect on income for offenders under age 25 and an increasingly negative and significant impact for offenders over age 30.These results imply that the present value of income lost as a result of conviction varies over the life cycle, reaching a maximum in the middle of the career.We find that the gains sought by these offenders follow similar profiles, suggesting that prospective offenders are deterred by the possibility of lost future income.Because the discounted loss in future income facing young offenders may be small, our results may provide part of an explanation of youth crime.
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Using longitudinal survey data, researchers have found a strong and consistent negative effect of incarceration on employment probabilities and income after release from prison.
“Using longitudinal survey data, researchers have studied the employment probabilities and income of individuals after release from prison and have found a strong and consistent negative effect of incarceration (Western and Beckett 1999; Freeman 1987; Nagin and Waldfogel 1993).”
From The Mark of a Criminal Record (2003) · cites this paper as Nagin and Waldfogel 1993
The Data section describes before-and-after income records for men convicted of federal fraud, and the First-Time Conviction and Employment section reports a decline in the proportion with positive income. But the records are administrative, not survey data; the study examines conviction and probationary supervision, not incarceration followed by prison release. The First-Time Conviction and Income section also finds a positive income effect for workers under 30, so the income effect is not consistently negative. (LLM, conf=0.90)
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Research works printed but not linked: 10
- G. Becker, Human Capital, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1964.
- Y. Ben-Porath, "The Production of Human Capital and the Life-Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, 75, (1967):352-363.
- R. Boshier and 3. Derek, "Does Conviction Affect Employment Opportunities?", British Journal Criminology, 14, (1974):264-268.
- W. Buikhuisen and F.P.H. Dijksterhuis, "Delinquency and Stigmatisation," British Journal Criminology, 11, (1971):185-187.
- J. Grogger, "Arrests, Persistent Youth Joblessness, and Black/White Employment Differentials," Review of Economics and Statistics, (1992): 100-106.
- B. Harrison, Education. Training, and the Urban Ghetto, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Un. Press, 1972.
- S.W. Polachek and W.S. Siebert, The Economics of Earnings, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
- J. Waldfogel, "The Effect of Criminal Conviction on Income and the 'Trust Reposed in the Workmen'," forthcoming, Journal of Human Resources, Winter 1994a.
- J. Waldfogel, "Does Conviction Have a Persistent Effect on Income and Employment?," forthcoming, International Review of Law and Economics, March 1994b.
- A. Witte and P.A. Reid, "An Exploration of the Determinants of Labor Market Performance for Prison Releasees," Journal of Urban Economics, 8, (1980):313-329.
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- Authors
- Nagin, D., & Waldfogel, J.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 1993-11
- OpenAlex
- W2901448684
- Cited by
- 34
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 1 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 1
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- criminal conviction, income effects, life cycle, federal offenders, juvenile delinquency, deterrence, employment
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