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Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion

Freeman, Richard, Rodgers, William·1999

Abstract

The current expansion has shattered the length of the previous longest peace-time boom and brought unemployment rates below four percent in 44 percent of metropolitan areas. We estimate the expansion's impact on the labor market outcomes of less-educated men. We find that young men, especially young African American men in tight labor markets experienced a boost in employment and earnings. Adult men had no gains, and their earnings barely changed even in areas with unemployment rates below 4 percent. Youths have higher earnings and employment in low crime states and poorer labor market outcomes in states where incarcerations are high.

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Research works printed but not linked: 14

  1. 7 Sources and Definitions: Average Nominal Hourly Earnings come from the Economic Report of the President: February 1998, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. To create average Real Hourly Earnings we deflate Nominal Hourly Earnings using the CPI-U-X1, also from the Economic Report of the President: February 1998. The monthly values are seasonally adjusted. Crime Rate per 100,000 inhabitants comes from the Uniform Crime Reports: 1996. Release Date Sunday, September 28, 1997, and the volumes from 1992, 1989, 1987, and 1983. The 1997 value is computed by using the 4 percent decline from 1996 reported in the Uniform Crime Reports: 1997 Preliminary Annual Release. Release Date May 17, 1998. The incarceration Rate per 100,000 inhabitants for 1983, 1987, 1989 and 1992 come from Table 6.22 in the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistic: 1996. The data for 1997 come from the Web site titled "Bureau of Justice Statistics Prisoners in 1997" <http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/p96.htm. The "na" indicates not available. The unemployment rates and employment population ratios for the 1980's, 1992, 1996, and 1997 come from the Economic Report of the President 1998. The unemployment rates and employment population ratios for 1998 come from "Selective Access" <http://www.bls.gov. Table A1 cont.: Selected Aggregate Summary Statistics of the U.S. Economy Panel C: U.S. Incarceration Rates per 100,000 by Race and Age, 1990 and 1996 White African American 1990 1996 1996-1990 1990 1996 1996-1990 Total 139 193 54 1,067 1,571 504 18-19 90 143 53 1,084 1,337 253 20-24 295 406 111 2,296 3,385 1,089 25-29 354 442 88 2,949 4,131 1,182 30-34 336 469 133 2,640 3,671 1,031 35-39 245 412 167 1,973 3,398 1,425 40-44 196 322 126 1,433 2,431 998 45-54 137 198 61 590 1,347 757 55+ 32 44 12 168 218 50 Source: Table 14: Number of sentenced prisoners under State or Federal jurisdiction per 100,000 residents, by sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, 1996. Prisoners in 1997, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Bulletin, August 1998, NCJ 170014. Table A3: State and Metropolitan Frequency Distributions of Unemployment Rates State 1983 1987 1989 1992 1996 1998 Less than 4 0 7 9 2 7 21 4-5 0 9 15 3 14 17 5-6 4 8 15 8 19 9 6-7 8 10 6 13 6 3 Greater than 7 40 18 7 26 6 2 Metropolitan 1983 1987 1989 1992 1996 1998 Less than 4 0 39 52 19 98 146 4-5 0 37 56 32 79 94 5-6 6 46 55 52 69 31 6-7 4 37 21 62 34 24 Greater than 7 34 53 28 167 54
  2. Blanchflower, David and Andrew Oswald. 1999, forthcoming. "Youth Unemployment, Wages and Wage Inequality in the UK and the U.S.", in David Blanchflower and Richard B. Freeman (eds) Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries (Chicago: Univ of Chicago Press for NBER).
  3. DeFreitas, Greg. 1986. "A Time Series Analysis of Hispanic Employment," Journal of Human Resources.
  4. -----------. 1991. Inequality at Work: Hispanics in the US Labor Force. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  5. Freeman, Richard B. 1999 (forthcoming). "The Economics of Crime," in Orley Ashenfelter and David Card, eds. Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol 3. (General Series Editors, K. Arrow and M.D.Intriligator) Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier Science B.V. Publishers..
  6. -------------. 1995. "The Labor Market". Ch. 8 in James Q. Wilson and Joan Petersilia (eds) Crime and Public Policy (2nd edition),. San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies. Pages 171-192.
  7. -------------. 1990. "Labor Market Tightness and the Declining Economic Position of Young Less Educated Male Workers in the United States" in Fiorella Padoa-Schioppa (ed) Mismatch and Labour Mobility. NY: Cambridge University Press.
  8. Freeman, Richard B. and Harry Holzer. 1986. The Black Youth Employment Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER.
  9. Glaeser Edward, Bruce Sacerdote and José Sheinkman. 1995. "Crime and Social Interactions," Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol 111(445) (issue 2)(May): 507-548.
  10. Hipple, Steven. 1997. "Worker Displacement in an Expanding Economy," Monthly Labor Review 120(12) (December): 26-39.
  11. Myers, Samuel. 1989. "How Voluntary is Black Unemployment and Black Labor Force Withdrawal?" in Steven Shulman and William Darity, Jr. (eds), The Question of Discrimination: Racial Inequality in the U.S. Labor Market. Middletown, CT: Wesleyan University Press, pp 1-6.
  12. Stratton, Leslie S. 1993. "Racial Differences in Men's Unemployment," Industrial Labor Relations Review 46(3)(April): 451-63.
  13. Topel, Robert H. 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, Supplement, 94: 111-143.
  14. U.S.Bureau of the Census. Various Editions. Current Population Surveys, for the years 1983, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1996, 1998. Washington, DC: Bureau of the Census.

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Metadata

Authors
Freeman, R., & Rodgers, W.
Published
1999-04
Cited by
45
References
4

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Freeman, R., & Rodgers, W. (1999). Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7073

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