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Cited by 42Extraction and Separation ProcessesMining and Resource ManagementGeology and Environmental Impact Studies

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Mineral Policy within the Framework of Limited Critical Resources and a Green Energy Transition

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Nate, Silviu, Bilan, Yuriy, Kurylo, Mariia, Lyashenko, Olena, Napieralski, Piotr, Kharlamova, Ganna·2021·Energies
DOI 10.3390/en14092688
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Abstract

The green energy transition is associated with the use of a wide range of metals and minerals that are exhaustible. Most of these minerals are limited in access due to small resource fields, their concentration in several locations and a broader scale of industry usage which is not limited exclusively to energy and environmental sectors. This article classifies 17 minerals that are critical in the green energy transition concerning the 10 main technologies. The following classification signs of metal resources were used: (1) the absolute amount of metals used in the current period for energy; (2) projected annual demand in 2050 from energy technologies as a percentage of the current rate; (3) the number of technologies where there is a need for an individual metal; (4) cumulative emissions of CO2, which are associated with metal production; (5) period of reserves availability; (6) the number of countries that produced more than 1% of global production; (7) countries with the maximum annual metal productivity. The ranking of metals according to these characteristics was carried out using two scenarios, and the index of the availability of each mineral was determined. The lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The calculation of the availability index for each mineral was enhanced with linear trend modelling and the fuzzy logic technique. There are two scenarios of demand–supply commodity systems with a pre-developed forecast up to 2050: basic independent parameter probability and balanced fuzzy sum. Both scenarios showed comparable results, but the second one highlighted supply chain importance. Generally, the lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The fuzzy logic model helped to reveal two scenarios up to 2050. The two scenarios presented in the current research expose a high level of uncertainty of the projected 2050 forecast.

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Kumar, 2020, National Mineral Policy 2019: A Remedy as Bad as the Disease?, Ecol. Econ. Soc. INSEE J., 3, 111
  2. Mirman, L.J., and Spulber, D.F. (1982). Essays in the Economics of Renewable Resources, Elsevier Science Pub. Co.
  3. An, 1991, Application of fuzzy set theory for integration of geological, geophysical and remote sensing data, Can. J. Explor. Geophys., 27, 1

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Metadata

Authors
Nate, S., Bilan, Y., Kurylo, M., Lyashenko, O., Napieralski, P., & Kharlamova, G.
Affiliations
  • Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu (RO)
  • Rzeszów University of Technology (PL)
  • Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (UA)
  • Lodz University of Technology (PL)
Corresponding author
Bilan, Yuriy
ORCID
Venue
Energies
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2021-05-07
Volume
14
Issue
9
Pages
2688
ISSN
1996-1073 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/en14092688
OpenAlex
W3159956070
Cited by
39
References
51
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 2
FWCI
2.56
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Energies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • Universitatea "Lucian Blaga" din Sibiu
  • Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Materials Science › Metals and Alloys › Extraction and Separation Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Mining and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Geology and Environmental Impact Studies
Keywords
critical minerals, mineral policy, clean energy transition, cobalt, lithium, graphite, battery minerals, energy storage, fuzzy logic, supply chain, mineral reserves

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