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Cited by 37Social Policies and FamilyFamily Dynamics and RelationshipsDemographic Trends and Gender Preferences

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The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility, Their Contribution, and Policy Pathways to Fertility Improvement in OECD Countries

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Zhang, Ting-Ting, Cai, Xiu-Yun, Shi, Xiao-Hui, Zhu, Wei, Shan, Shao-Nan·2023·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
DOI 10.3390/ijerph20064790PMC PMC10049131
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Abstract

The cost of childbirth has been confirmed as a vital factor in families’ fertility decision-making, and family welfare policies are capable of compensating for the increase in household living expenses regarding childbirth, such that the country’s fertility situation can be optimized. In this study, the fertility promotion effects of family welfare policies in OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries are investigated through regression analysis, grey correlation (GRA), and the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis fsQCA method. As indicated by the results: (1) Family welfare policies notably boost fertility, and the boosting effect is long-lasting. However, this boost will be weakened in countries where fertility rates remain below 1.5. (2) The contribution of welfare policy measures to the fertility-promotion effect varies by country. The contribution of cash benefits is highest in over half of the countries worldwide, the contribution of relevant services and in-kind expenditure is highest in 29% of the countries, and that of tax incentive expenditure is highest in 14% of the countries. (3) The policy mix to boost fertility also varies according to the social context, with three policy groups derived using the fsQCA method. To be specific, the core antecedent conditions comprise cash benefits, relevant services, and in-kind expenditure. On that basis, China should pay attention to the following three points when formulating family welfare policies to tackle their demographic challenges. First, a system of family welfare policies should be developed as early as possible in the context of increasingly severe demographic issues since the incentive effect of family welfare policies will be weakened in countries with chronically low fertility rates. Second, the effects of improvements vary by country, and China should comprehensively consider its national circumstances when formulating and dynamically adjusting the mix of government fertility support policies in accordance with its social development. Third, employment is the main means of securing family income and takes on critical significance to sustaining families. Unemployment exerts a significant disincentive effect, such that it is imperative to reduce youth unemployment and enhance the quality of youth employment. On that basis, the disincentive effect of unemployment on fertility can be reduced.

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Crossref · 10.3390/ijerph20064790

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Figures

Figure 1 Countries in the OECD with fertility rates below 1.5 for the first time. Data source: OECD family database.
Figure 1 Countries in the OECD with fertility rates below 1.5 for the first time. Data source: OECD family database.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 2 Family welfare policies in OECD countries.
Figure 2 Family welfare policies in OECD countries.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 3 Fertility trends of different countries.
Figure 3 Fertility trends of different countries.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 4 Number of births in China, 2011–2021 (10,000). Data source: China National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, 2011–2021.
Figure 4 Number of births in China, 2011–2021 (10,000). Data source: China National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, 2011–2021.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 5 Modified “New Home Economics” framework diagram.
Figure 5 Modified “New Home Economics” framework diagram.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 6 Total fertility rates in the selected OECD countries, 2001 and 2015.
Figure 6 Total fertility rates in the selected OECD countries, 2001 and 2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 7 Average expenditure on total family welfare and average expenditure on three items in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.
Figure 7 Average expenditure on total family welfare and average expenditure on three items in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 8 Average unemployment rate in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.
Figure 8 Average unemployment rate in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 9 Number of weeks’ maternity leave and paternity leave of in the selected OECD countries, 2015.
Figure 9 Number of weeks’ maternity leave and paternity leave of in the selected OECD countries, 2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 10 Average urbanization rate and child-rearing ratio in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.
Figure 10 Average urbanization rate and child-rearing ratio in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 11 Average GDP per capita and medical expenditure in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.
Figure 11 Average GDP per capita and medical expenditure in the selected OECD countries, 2001–2015.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 12 Gross enrolment ratio in higher education for women and the income of minimum wage-earning couples without children in the selected OECD countries in 2015.
Figure 12 Gross enrolment ratio in higher education for women and the income of minimum wage-earning couples without children in the selected OECD countries in 2015.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Citations

Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Ellingsaeter, 2013, The Ffoundation of Fertility in the Norwegian Welfare State, Tidsskr. Samf., 54, 3
  2. Kim, 2012, A Reflective Discussion of Birth Encouragement Policy and Child Welfare in Korea, J. Child Welf. Dev., 10, 67
  3. Chen, 2021, Research progress on the theory and practice of fertility support abroad, Popul. J., 43, 54
  4. Ragin, C.C. (2000). Fuzzy-Set Social Science, University of Chicago Press.

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Metadata

Authors
Zhang, T.-T., Cai, X.-Y., Shi, X.-H., Zhu, W., & Shan, S.-N.
Affiliations
  • School of Public Finance and Taxation, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
  • Capital University of Economics and Business (CN)
  • Shanxi Normal University (CN)
  • Institute of Industrial and Economic Policy, Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (BDA), Beijing 100070, China
  • School of Business, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110064, China
ORCID
Venue
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2023-03-08
Volume
20
Issue
6
Pages
4790
ISSN
1660-4601 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/ijerph20064790
PMC
PMC10049131
OpenAlex
W4323664921
Cited by
37
References
28
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 1
FWCI
15.90
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Social Science Fund Project of Liaoning Province (L20BZZ006)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social Policies and Family
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
Keywords
family welfare policy, fertility rate, low fertility, cash benefits, in-kind benefits, tax incentives, policy mix, youth unemployment, OECD countries
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Demography, Developing Countries, Economics, Fertility, Humans, Population Dynamics, Public Policy, Socioeconomic Factors, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development

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