Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses
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Abstract
This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.
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The bias may have arisen from vaccinated persons having a higher social contact rate or adhering less to safety measures than unvaccinated persons.
“This bias may have risen from vaccinated persons having a higher social contact rate or adhering less to safety measures than unvaccinated persons31–33.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [31]
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References 53 · Cited by 107
- Authors
- Makhoul, M., Ayoub, H. H., Chemaitelly, H., Seedat, S., Mumtaz, G. R., Al-Omari, S., & Abu-Raddad, L. J.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Qatar University (QA)
- American University of Beirut (LB)
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut 11-0236, Lebanon
- Corresponding author
- Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Vaccines
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2020-11-09
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 668
- ISSN
- 2076-393X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7712303
- OpenAlex
- W3099181581
- Cited by
- 107
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 6
- FWCI
- 3.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Vaccines (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP grant number 9-040-3-008, NPRP grant number 12S-0216-190094)
- UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, grant number ES/P010873/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine efficacy, herd immunity, vaccine impact, infection averted, disease severity, contact rate reduction, outbreak probability, long-term protection, vaccine development
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