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Cited by 255Psychology Research and BibliometricsMeta-analysis and systematic reviewsMemory Processes and Influences

Underpowered samples, false negatives, and unconscious learning

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Vadillo, Miguel A., Konstantinidis, Emmanouil, Shanks, David R.·2016·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
DOI 10.3758/s13423-015-0892-6PMC PMC4742512
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Abstract

The scientific community has witnessed growing concern about the high rate of false positives and unreliable results within the psychological literature, but the harmful impact of false negatives has been largely ignored. False negatives are particularly concerning in research areas where demonstrating the absence of an effect is crucial, such as studies of unconscious or implicit processing. Research on implicit processes seeks evidence of above-chance performance on some implicit behavioral measure at the same time as chance-level performance (that is, a null result) on an explicit measure of awareness. A systematic review of 73 studies of contextual cuing, a popular implicit learning paradigm, involving 181 statistical analyses of awareness tests, reveals how underpowered studies can lead to failure to reject a false null hypothesis. Among the studies that reported sufficient information, the meta-analytic effect size across awareness tests was d z = 0.31 (95 % CI 0.24-0.37), showing that participants' learning in these experiments was conscious. The unusually large number of positive results in this literature cannot be explained by selective publication. Instead, our analyses demonstrate that these tests are typically insensitive and underpowered to detect medium to small, but true, effects in awareness tests. These findings challenge a widespread and theoretically important claim about the extent of unconscious human cognition.

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Authors
Vadillo, M. A., Konstantinidis, E., & Shanks, D. R.
Affiliations
  • King's College London (GB)
  • Carnegie Mellon University (US)
  • University College London (GB)
Corresponding author
Vadillo, Miguel A.
ORCID
Venue
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2015-06-30
Volume
23
Issue
1
Pages
87-102
ISSN
  • 1069-9384 (ISSN-L)
  • 1531-5320
DOI
10.3758/s13423-015-0892-6
PMC
PMC4742512
OpenAlex
W825910535
Cited by
255
References
7
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 3
FWCI
2.88
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Psychonomic Bulletin & Review (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (acceptedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J007196/1)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Keywords
false-negative results, underpowered studies, unconscious learning, implicit learning, contextual cuing, null hypothesis testing, statistical power, unconscious cognition, selective publication, meta-analysis of effect sizes
MeSH terms
Adult, Awareness, Cues, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Female, Humans, Learning, Male, Unconscious, Psychology, Meta-Analysis as Topic

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