Biological Effects of First Birth Postponement and Assisted Reproductive Technology on Completed Fertility
Open accessAbstract
Résumé L’évolution de la fécondité dans les pays européens depuis les années 1960 a été marquée par une baisse notable de la descendance finale des générations (plus encore de l’indicateur conjoncturel) et une élévation rapide de l’âge à la première maternité, en général de 3 à 4 ans en une trentaine d’années. Dans le même temps, le recours aux méthodes d’aide médicale à la procréation (AMP) a fortement augmenté. On pourrait donc penser que cette dernière évolution est révélatrice de difficultés croissantes à concevoir, lesquelles pourraient – au moins en partie – résulter du retard dans le calendrier des naissances souhaité par les couples. Pour évaluer l’impact purement biologique du retard dans le calendrier des naissances, et le rattrapage éventuel par les méthodes d’AMP, nous utilisons un modèle de microsimulation, permettant de prendre en compte un grand nombre de paramètres, biologiques et comportementaux. Ces simulations montrent que l’effet biologique du report de 3 à 4 ans de la première naissance sur la descendance finale a été assez limité : entre 0,1 et 0,2 enfant. Quant au recours à l’AMP, il n’a compensé qu’une faible partie de cette diminution, au mieux 10 %.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A simulation of the biological consequences of a delay of first births by 3-4 years in the French context shows a rather small drop in completed cohort fertility of 0.1-0.2 children, of which about 10-20% could be compensated by assisted reproductive technologies.
“A simulation of the biological consequences of a delay of fi rst births by 3 -4 years in the French context shows a rather small drop in completed cohort fertility of 0.1 -0.2 children, of which about 10 -20% could be compensated by assisted reproductive technologies (Leridon, 2017).”
From Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline? (2023) · cites this paper as Leridon, 2017
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSo far, the direct negative impact of further fertility delay on completed fertility appears to be modest, around 0.1 to 0.2 fewer children per woman for 3-4 years of delay in the mean age of first child in France where completed fertility is around 2 children per woman.
“So far, the direct negative impact of further fertility delay on completed fertility appears to be modest, around 0.1 to 0.2 fewer children per woman for 3 -4 years of delay in the mean age of fi rst child in France where completed fertility is around 2 children per woman (Leridon, 2017).”
From Delayed Fertility as a Driver of Fertility Decline? (2023) · cites this paper as Leridon, 2017
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet
References 36 · Cited by 20
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- leRidon H., 1977, Human Fertility. The basic components, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 202 p.
- leRidon H., 2002, « Les facteurs de la fécondabilité et du 'temps mort' », in Caselli G., Vallin J., Wunsch G. (dir.), Démographie. Analyse et synthèse (Vol. 2 : La fécondité), Paris, Ined, les Manuels, p. 191-210.
- Wood J., 1989, « Fecundity and natural fertility in humans », in Milligan S. (ed.), Reviews of Reproductive Biology, Oxford, Oxford University Press, p. 61-109.
- Authors
- Leridon, H.
- Venue
- Population
- Publisher
- CAIRN.INFO
- Published
- 2017-10-24
- Volume
- Vol. 72
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 445-472
- ISSN
- 1634-2941 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2765250867
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 1.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- fr
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population (English Edition) (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Archined (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Cairn.info (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Reproductive Medicine › Reproductive Health and Technologies
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Keywords
- fertility decline, age at first birth, delayed childbearing, assisted reproduction, completed fertility, European fertility trends
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
