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Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic
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Abstract
The climate impact of air traffic is to a large degree caused by changes in cirrus cloudiness resulting from the formation of contrails. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing is expected to increase significantly over time due to the large projected increases in air traffic. We use ECHAM5-CCMod, an atmospheric climate model with an online contrail cirrus parameterization including a microphysical two-moment scheme, to investigate the climate impact of contrail cirrus for the year 2050. We take into account the predicted increase in air traffic volume, changes in propulsion efficiency and emissions, in particular soot emissions, and the modification of the contrail cirrus climate impact due to anthropogenic climate change. Global contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases by a factor of 3 from 2006 to 2050, reaching 160 or even 180 mW m −2 , which is the result of the increase in air traffic volume and a slight shift in air traffic towards higher altitudes. Large increases in contrail cirrus radiative forcing are expected over all of the main air traffic areas, but relative increases are largest over main air traffic areas over eastern Asia. The projected upward shift in air traffic attenuates contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases in the midlatitudes but reinforces it in the tropical areas. Climate change has an insignificant impact on global contrail cirrus radiative forcing, while regional changes are significant. Of the emission reductions it is the soot number emission reductions by 50 % that lead to a significant decrease in contrail cirrus optical depth and coverage, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing by approximately 15 %. The strong increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in air traffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial ice crystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements in propulsion efficiency.
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“The surface warming of contrail cirrus is expected to further increase in the future with some projections suggesting a 3 -4-fold increase by the year 2050 14,15 .”
From Cleaner burning aviation fuels can reduce contrail cloudiness (2021) · cites this paper as [14]
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Quante, G., Voß, S., Bullerdiek, N., Voigt, C., & Kaltschmitt, M. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4748187 · Cited by 1
The Potential Climatic Significance of the Global Reduction in Aviation During the PandemicPreprint
Cairns, S. (2020) · Preprints.org · doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0266.v1
Reply to reviewers on acp-2021-210
Gettelman, A. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-210-ac1
Verma, P., & Burkhardt, U. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-497-rc1
Bräuer, T., Voigt, C., Sauer, D., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-582-rc1
Bier, A. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-361-ac2
Verma, P. (2021) · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-497-ac3
Verma, P. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-497-ac5
Verma, P. (2021) · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-497-ac2
Metadata
- Authors
- Bock, L., & Burkhardt, U.
- Affiliations
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Bock, Lisa
- Venue
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2019-06-27
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 8163-8174
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- 1680-7324
- OpenAlex
- W2913725748
- Cited by
- 132
- References
- 43
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 8
- FWCI
- 9.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- elib (German Aerospace Center) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Federal Aviation Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Aerospace Engineering › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Keywords
- contrail cirrus, radiative forcing, air traffic, aviation climate impact, soot emissions, ice crystal number concentration, propulsive efficiency, two-moment microphysics, climate feedbacks
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