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Cited by 1,500Atmospheric and Environmental Gas DynamicsClimate variability and modelsMarine Plankton and Biogeochemistry

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 298 of the 298 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Global Carbon Budget 2023

Open access
Friedlingstein, Pierre, O'Sullivan, Michael, Jones, Matthew W., Andrew, Robbie M., Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Hauck, Judith, Landschützer, Peter, Le Quéré, Corinne, Luijkx, Ingrid T., Peters, Glen P., Peters, Wouter, Pongratz, Julia, Schwingshackl, Clemens, Sitch, Stephen, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Jackson, Robert B., Alin, Simone R., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bates, Nicholas R., Becker, Meike, Bellouin, Nicolas, Decharme, Bertrand, Bopp, Laurent, Brasika, Ida Bagus Mandhara, Cadule, Patricia, Chamberlain, Matthew A., Chandra, Naveen, Chau, Thi-Tuyet-Trang, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Cronin, Margot, Dou, Xinyu, Enyo, Kazutaka, Evans, Wiley, Falk, Stefanie, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Liang, Ford, Daniel J., Gasser, Thomas, Ghattas, Josefine, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Grassi, Giacomo, Gregor, Luke, Gruber, Nicolas, Gürses, Özgür, Harris, Ian, Hefner, Matthew, Heinke, Jens, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George C., Iida, Yosuke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jacobson, Andrew R., Jain, Atul, Jarníková, Tereza, Jersild, Annika, Jiang, Fei, Jin, Zhe, Joos, Fortunat, Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Kennedy, Daniel, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Knauer, Jürgen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Körtzinger, Arne, Lan, Xin, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Li, Hongmei, Liu, Junjie, Liu, Zhiqiang, Ma, Lei, Marland, Greg, Mayot, Nicolas, McGuire, Patrick C., McKinley, Galen A., Meyer, Gesa, Morgan, Eric J., Munro, David R., Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, Niwa, Yosuke, O'Brien, Kevin M., Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Paulsen, Melf, Pierrot, Denis, Pocock, Katie, Poulter, Benjamin, Powis, Carter M., Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rödenbeck, Christian, Rosan, Thais M., Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Smallman, T. Luke, Smith, Stephen M., Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel, Sun, Qing, Sutton, Adrienne J., Sweeney, Colm, Takao, Shintaro, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tsujino, Hiroyuki, Tubiello, Francesco, van der Werf, Guido R., van Ooijen, Erik, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Michio, Wimart-Rousseau, Cathy, Yang, Dongxu, Yang, Xiaojuan, Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Xu, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Jiye, Zheng, Bo·2023·Earth System Science Data
DOI 10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023

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Abstract

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements and Earth System Models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 1.0 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 10.2 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 1.2 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1 (40.7 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr-1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.18 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2.8 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 3.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of -0.1 GtC yr-1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023, suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.2 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set.

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Authors
Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Bakker, D. C. E., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, I. T., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Alin, S. R., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bates, N. R., Becker, M., Bellouin, N., Decharme, B., Bopp, L., Brasika, I. B. M., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Chandra, N., Chau, T.-T.-T., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Cronin, M., Dou, X., Enyo, K., Evans, W., Falk, S., Feely, R. A., Feng, L., Ford, D. J., Gasser, T., Ghattas, J., Gkritzalis, T., Grassi, G., Gregor, L., Gruber, N., Gürses, Ö., Harris, I., Hefner, M., Heinke, J., Houghton, R. A., Hurtt, G. C., Iida, Y., Ilyina, T., Jacobson, A. R., Jain, A., Jarníková, T., Jersild, A., Jiang, F., Jin, Z., Joos, F., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kennedy, D., Klein Goldewijk, K., Knauer, J., Korsbakken, J. I., Körtzinger, A., Lan, X., Lefèvre, N., Li, H., Liu, J., Liu, Z., Ma, L., Marland, G., Mayot, N., McGuire, P. C., McKinley, G. A., Meyer, G., Morgan, E. J., Munro, D. R., Nakaoka, S.-I., Niwa, Y., O'Brien, K. M., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Paulsen, M., Pierrot, D., Pocock, K., Poulter, B., Powis, C. M., Rehder, G., Resplandy, L., Robertson, E., Rödenbeck, C., Rosan, T. M., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Smallman, T. L., Smith, S. M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Sun, Q., Sutton, A. J., Sweeney, C., Takao, S., Tans, P. P., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Tsujino, H., Tubiello, F., van der Werf, G. R., van Ooijen, E., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, M., Wimart-Rousseau, C., Yang, D., Yang, X., Yuan, W., Yue, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, J., & Zheng, B.
Affiliations
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
  • École Polytechnique (FR)
  • Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
ORCID
Venue
Earth System Science Data
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2023-12-05
Volume
15
Issue
12
Pages
5301-5369
ISSN
  • 1866-3508 (ISSN-L)
  • 1866-3516
DOI
10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
OpenAlex
W4389195056
Cited by
1,500
References
298
Citations by year
2026: 391 · 2025: 685 · 2024: 420 · 2023: 3
FWCI
168.43
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Earth system science data (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Earth System Science Data Discussions (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
  • UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
  • CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
  • Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion)
  • Institutional Archive of Ifremer (French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) (submittedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ETH Zürich Research Collection
Funders
  • Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (I001821N)
  • Tula Foundation (n.a.)
  • National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0607504)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (42141020, 42275128, 41921005)
  • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (CAMS2 55)
  • Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (821003, 101003536, 862626, 101094716, 871153)
  • Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (n.a.)
  • Bundesministerium für Forschung, Technologie und Raumfahrt (03F0885AL1, 03F0877A)
  • Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung (200020-200511)
  • Helmholtz Association (ATMO, MOSES)
  • Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan (JP-MEERF21S20800, E2252)
  • Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (090414380031)
  • Japan Meteorological Agency (n.a.)
  • Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (JPMXD0722680395, JPMXD0722681344, JPMEERF21S20810, JPMXD1420318865, JPMEERF21S20800)
  • Norges Forskningsråd (296012)
  • National Centre for Atmospheric Science (n.a.)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/V01417X/1, NE/R016518/1)
  • Royal Society (RP\R1\191063)
  • UK Research and Innovation (10040851)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC21K1059, 80NM0018F0583)
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (1852977)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA22OAR4320151, NA20OAR4320278, NA20OAR4320271, NA20OAR4320472, 100018302, 100007298, NA03AR4320179)
  • National Science Foundation (NSF- 831361857, OPP-1922922)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Plankton and Biogeochemistry
Keywords
carbon balance, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, deforestation, ocean carbon sink, terrestrial carbon sink, carbon cycle, cement carbonation, dynamic global vegetation models, ocean biogeochemistry models, temperature inversion, Earth system models, uncertainty quantification

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