The DOI matches its Crossref record; 51 of the 51 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Open accessAbstract
Abstract. The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
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Cites
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Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record
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Heat flow from the Earth's interior: Analysis of the global data set
Pollack, H. N., Hurter, S. J., & Johnson, J. R. (1993) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/93rg01249 · Cited by 1,593
Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis
Schoof, C. (2007) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface · doi:10.1029/2006jf000664 · Cited by 1,356
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., & Schewe, J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312330110 · Cited by 1,253
Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming
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Self-citationOn the Structure and Origin of Major Glaciation Cycles 1. Linear Responses to Milankovitch Forcing
Imbrie, J., Boyle, E. A., Clemens, S. C., Duffy, A., Howard, W. R., Kukla, G., Kutzbach, J., Martinson, D. G., McIntyre, A., Mix, A. C., et al. (1992) · Paleoceanography · doi:10.1029/92pa02253 · Cited by 1,042
Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data
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Self-citationMorlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., et al. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl074954 · Cited by 993
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Metadata
- Authors
- Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Leguy, G., Little, C., Lowry, D. P., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Quiquet, A., Rückamp, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Slater, D. A., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Tarasov, L., van de Wal, R., & van den Broeke, M.
- Venue
- The Cryosphere
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-09-17
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 3071-3096
- ISSN
- 1994-0416 (ISSN-L)
- 1994-0424
- OpenAlex
- W3002782576
- Cited by
- 398
- References
- 51
- FWCI
- 21.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., . . . van den Broeke, M. (2020). The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
