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Large language model validity via enhanced conformal prediction methods
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We develop new conformal inference methods for obtaining validity guarantees on the output of large language models (LLMs). Prior work in conformal language modeling identifies a subset of the text that satisfies a high-probability guarantee of correctness. These methods work by filtering claims from the LLM's original response if a scoring function evaluated on the claim fails to exceed a threshold calibrated via split conformal prediction. Existing methods in this area suffer from two deficiencies. First, the guarantee stated is not conditionally valid. The trustworthiness of the filtering step may vary based on the topic of the response. Second, because the scoring function is imperfect, the filtering step can remove many valuable and accurate claims. We address both of these challenges via two new conformal methods. First, we generalize the conditional conformal procedure of Gibbs et al. (2023) in order to adaptively issue weaker guarantees when they are required to preserve the utility of the output. Second, we show how to systematically improve the quality of the scoring function via a novel algorithm for differentiating through the conditional conformal procedure. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on biography and medical question-answering datasets.
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Recent work applying conformal prediction to LLM safety predominantly addresses single-turn interactions rather than extended trajectories where actions compound.
“Recent work has begun applying conformal prediction methods to LLM safety, controlling tail risks (Chen et al., 2025), improving factuality (Cherian et al., 2024), and mediating between helpfulness and harmlessness (Overman & Bayati, 2025), but these approaches predominantly address singleturn interactions rather than extended trajectories where actions compound.”
From Calibrating Conservatism for Scalable Oversight (2026) · cites this paper as Cherian et al., 2024
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How to build the virtual cell with artificial intelligence: Priorities and opportunities
Bunne, C., Roohani, Y., Rosen, Y., Gupta, A., Zhang, X., Roed, M., Alexandrov, T., AlQuraishi, M., Brennan, P., Burkhardt, D. B., et al. (2024) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2024.11.015 · Cited by 393
Calibrating Conservatism for Scalable Oversight
Overman, W., & Bayati, M. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.28807
Metadata
- Authors
- Cherian, J., Gibbs, I., & Candès, E.
- ORCID
- Candès, Emmanuel
- Venue
- Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 37
- Published
- 2024
- Pages
- 114812-114842
- ISSN
- 1049-5258 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4415795647
- Cited by
- 17
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 2
- FWCI
- 4.11
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- arxiv.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- neural information processing systems (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (2032014)
- Office of Naval Research (N00014)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Topic Modeling
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Natural Language Processing Techniques
- Keywords
- large language models, conformal prediction, validity, uncertainty estimation, prediction intervals
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