Analysing the China Factor in the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the EU and India

Abstract

This paper examines how the China factor shapes the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the European Union (EU) and India, particularly in the post-Russia-Ukraine War. The EU and India share the common strategic interests of a free, open, inclusive, and rule-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific region. India and the EU have acknowledged that China’s assertive stance and strategic ambitions present significant security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region. Recognising India’s strategic weight in the region, the EU intended to boost cooperation with India to build a robust maritime order, mitigating the disruptive and destabilising role of China. However, the unprovoked Russia–Ukraine War since 2022 has changed its strategic priorities and significantly altered its threat perception toward China. India’s long-standing ties with Russia contrast with the EU’s sanction-driven stance, necessitating nuanced approaches to bilateral and multilateral engagements. This paper maps the increasingly complex interactions between India and the EU in the Indo-Pacific as they navigate the multifaceted impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war. The paper explores how the Russia–China strategic partnership has intensified regional power struggles, compelling both India and the EU to reassess their policies toward Moscow. This study also analyses how India and the EU, each with its unique set of challenges and opportunities, can leverage their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific through stability, economic resilience, and sustainable security architecture amid escalating global geopolitical challenges. Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, Indo-Pacific Strategy, China, EU, India, Geopolitics