The DOI matches its Crossref record; 189 of the 189 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 99 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence
Abstract
Do oil prices and stock markets move in tandem or in opposite directions? The complex and time varying relationship between oil prices and stock markets has caught the attention of the financial press, investors, policymakers, researchers, and the general public in recent years. In light of such attention, this paper reviews research on the oil price and stock market relationship. The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists. Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectorial indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices. Finally, efind that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, and that including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility. Several important avenues for further research are identified.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This paper reviews theoretical channels and empirical evidence on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets. It concludes that the relationship is complex and time-varying, depending on data level, country type, shock type, and asymmetry, while oil price volatility generally transmits to stock market volatility and stock market information can improve oil price and volatility forecasts.
Key findings
- The causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research uses aggregate stock market indices, sectoral indices, or firm-level data, and on whether markets are in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. For example, the review cites Nandha and Faff (2008) analyzing 35 Datastream global industry indices, Scholtens and Yurtsever (2012) considering 38 industrial sectors from 15 European countries, and Arouri and Nguyen (2010) using 12 pan-European industrial sectors.
- Higher oil prices generally lead to lower stock market returns for oil-importing economies, while oil-exporting economies tend to respond positively. At sector level, oil-related and oil-substitute sectors are positively affected, whereas oil-user and non-oil-related or financial sectors are negatively affected.
- Oil price shocks produce heterogeneous responses: stock markets generally do not respond to supply-side shocks, respond positively to aggregate demand shocks, and respond negatively to precautionary demand shocks, though later studies such as Basher et al. (2012) find emerging markets respond positively to precautionary demand shocks. The review also notes time-varying evidence, including Kang et al. (2015b) finding aggregate demand shocks had a positive effect and precautionary demand shocks a negative effect over 1973–2012, with effects diminishing later.
- Most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, while the reverse holds only in the case of the US market. Including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility, although the forecasting literature is small: only three studies examine stock market information for oil price forecasting and only three for oil price volatility forecasting.
Methods
- Design: narrative literature review and synthesis, not a primary empirical study; the paper states it maps and synthesizes the literature and draws insights that might not emerge from individual papers.
- Data/sample: reviewed studies covering aggregate stock market indices, sectoral indices, and firm-level data; oil-importing and oil-exporting countries; symmetric and asymmetric oil price changes; oil price shocks; volatility linkages; and forecasting of oil prices and oil price volatility.
- Main analysis: organizes evidence by theoretical transmission channels—stock valuation, monetary, output, fiscal, and uncertainty—and by empirical themes, summarizing common econometric methods such as VAR, GARCH, Kilian’s SVAR, DCC/BEKK, MIDAS, HAR, and time-varying parameter VAR.
Limitations
- The paper states that most surveyed research studies impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas little research exists in the reverse direction; theoretical transmission channels by which stock markets affect oil prices should be developed.
- It states that only a small number of studies evaluate the information content of stock markets for forecasting oil prices and oil price volatility, and that no studies focus on firm-level data when considering volatility interconnectedness between the two markets.
- Evident from the text: as a narrative review, no systematic search protocol, inclusion criteria, or meta-analysis is described, and conclusions depend on heterogeneous specifications, samples, and data frequencies across the surveyed studies.
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Claims the paper makes
86 Not checked yet · 42 Own interpretation · 27 No basis given · 1 Own result
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Finally, we find that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The picture painted from the aforementioned studies suggests that positive oil price changes lead to negative stock market returns.”
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In the paper
“Their findings lend support to the previously reported evidence, i.e. that firms' response to oil price changes is heterogeneous and depends on the sector and the size of the firm.”
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In the paper
“Nevertheless, there are studies which do not offer support to the aforementioned findings, concluding that there are no asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns (see, for instance, Bachmeier, 2008; Nandha and Faff, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bachmeier, 2008
- Not checked yetcites Nandha and Faff, 2008
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In the paper
“The evidence provided by the empirical literature is that there are indeed heterogeneous responses to oil price changes by different industrial sectors”
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In the paper
“The majority of the studies that concentrate on the asymmetric effects of oil prices focus on macroeconomic variables rather than financial variables”
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In the paper
“In any case we do not find heterogeneous results depending on the use of real or nominal data. This also applies for studies which examine either the asymmetric effects of oil prices or the effects of oil prices for oil-exporting and oil-importing economies.”
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In the paper
“The second most common model that is employed for the identification of oil price effects on stock market performance is a GARCH (1,1); see, inter alia , Broadstock et al ., (2014), Elyasiani et al . (2011) and Arouri and Nguyen (2010).”
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For all its fanfare, the oil/stock market relationship does not necessarily exhibit a stable pattern over time. Figure 1 shows there are periods of coupling and decoupling between the two markets.”
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectoral indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries.”
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Interestingly enough, the literature has not extensively focused on the effects of oil price changes on firm-level stock returns, which would allow for an even more in-depth analysis, given that firms within the same sector may well exhibit heterogeneous responses to oil price changes.”
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In the paper
“Thus, there are periods when the two markets exhibit a positive relationship, whereas in other periods a negative relationship prevails.”
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In the paper
“These studies corroborate that the relationship between oil prices and stock market is time-varying and mainly driven by economic or geopolitical developments.”
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In the paper
“A recent strand in this line of research acknowledges the fact that the relationship between oil and stock markets may not be stable over time. On the contrary, a time-varying relationship may prevail.”
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In the paper
“On the other hand, there are authors who maintain that oil price changes do not impact stock returns (see, inter alia , Al Janabi et al ., 2010; Jammazi and Aloui, 2010; Apergis and Miller, 2009; Cong et al ., 2008; Henriques and Sadorsky, 2008).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Al Janabi et al., 2010
- Not checked yetcites Jammazi and Aloui, 2010
- Not checked yetcites Apergis and Miller, 2009
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In the paper
“Park and Ratti (2008) uses all three asymmetric specifications and conclude that while the US stock market responds heterogeneously to positive and negative oil price changes, such evidence is not apparent for European stock markets.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Park and Ratti (2008)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Summarizing the evidence from the industrial sectors, we maintain that oilrelated and oil-substitute sectors are positively affected by changes in oil prices, whereas the reverse holds for oil-user and non-oil-related (or financial) sectors.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“By contrast, authors such as Narayan and Sharma (2011) find evidence that sectors such as Supply, Manufacturing, Food, Chemical, Medical, Computer, Transportation, Real Estate and General Services respond negatively to positive oil price changes, whereas inconclusive findings are reported for the Electricity, Engineering and Financial sectors.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Narayan and Sharma (2011)
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In the paper
“More specifically, Tsai (2015) finds that before the GFC, oil prices were negatively influencing firms' stock returns. However, since the GFC the effects have become positive.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Tsai (2015)
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In the paper
“They conclude that increased oil price changes lead to appreciation of oil producer stock prices, whereas the reverse holds true for oil consumers.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Phan et al. (2015)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Their findings suggest that there is indeed an asymmetric effect of oil prices, given that some markets exhibit greater responses to positive changes in oil prices”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Broadstock et al. (2014)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“On the other hand, studies that investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and stock markets (either for aggregate stock market or sectoral indices) use monthly data and employ multivariate GARCH models, such as the Dynamic Conditional Correlation by Engle (2002) or the BEKK model of Baba et al . (1991) and Engle and Kroner (1995).”
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, authors who consider firm-level data primarily use daily data. In these studies the most common approaches are the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) or the Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model, which are augmented to incorporate oil price changes”
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In the paper
“Overall, we observe that the literature (although scarce) points to the fact that stock market responses are heterogeneous to the different oil shocks, and also country-specific, depending on whether the country is an oil-importer or oil-exporter.”
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In the paper
“Intuitively, we expect oil-users to exhibit bearish behaviour during periods of oil price increase, whereas the reverse holds true for oilproducing firms.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“As mentioned in section 2.1, rising oil prices result in increased production costs. However, these costs will be transferred to consumers, leading to higher retail prices and thus higher expected inflation (see Abel and Bernanke 2001; Hamilton 1996, 1988; Barro 1984, among others).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Abel and Bernanke 2001
- Not checked yetcites Hamilton 1996, 1988
- Not checked yetcites Barro 1984
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In the paper
“Furthermore, the increased borrowing costs lead to fewer positive NPV projects (lower cash flows).”
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In the paper
“Thus, either due to increased discount rates and/or lower cash flows, stock prices decrease in value.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Assuming a highly credible central bank, we maintain that inflation expectations will remain stable, despite an oil price increase, and thus close to the inflation target.”
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In the paper
“By contrast, in the case of a low credibility central bank, inflation expectations will be volatile and this results in a larger change of inflation expectation, following an oil price increase, leading to an even worse impact on stock price levels.”
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In the paper
“By contrast, if consumption and government purchases are regarded as substitutes then the opposite impact will be evident, due to the crowding out effects. Stock markets will respond negatively to such developments, as the substitution effect will drive out the most productive private capital of the economy.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Consumption and government purchases are substitutes.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Lower income leads to lower consumption and thus aggregate output, which further leads to lower labour demand.”
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In the paper
“According to this channel, positive oil price changes are expected to have both an income and a production cost effect, which will lead to changes in aggregate output.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“They show that oil price changes affect the time-varying stock market correlations among oil-importing countries, whereas no effects are reported for the correlations among oil-exporting countries.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Antonakakis and Filis (2013)
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In the paper
“Finally, Narayan and Gupta (2015) suggest that there is evidence of asymmetric oil price effects, given that negative changes in oil prices allow for superior prediction of stock price returns, compared to positive changes.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Narayan and Gupta (2015)
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In the paper
“For instance Filis et al . (2011) focus on both oil importing and oil exporting countries, and show that during geopolitical events (i.e. unrest in the Middle East) the relationship between oil price changes and stock returns is negative, whereas during recessions or economic booms the relationship turns positive. Even more, the authors do not find any significant relationships between oil Export”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Filis et al. (2011)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Put differently, an increase in oil prices will worsen the terms-of-trade for an oilimporting economy, which will result in lower income and a negative wealth effect on consumption, and in turn to lower aggregate demand (Svensson, 2005 and 2006).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Svensson, 2005 and 2006
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“reports that oil price increases tend to trigger negative responses in stock markets, which are of a higher magnitude compared to the positive responses of the latter when oil prices decrease.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jiménez-Rodríguez (2015)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Assuming that consumption and government purchases are considered complements, then the latter will lead to higher household consumption.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Consumption and government purchases are complements.
In the paper
“By contrast, Al Janabi et al . (2010) report that oil prices do not tend to affect the stock markets of the Gulf Corporation Council countries (GCC). Thus oil prices cannot be used as predictors for GCC stock markets.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Al Janabi et al. (2010)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“In such a case, private firms are expected to increase their cash flows and thus their profitability. Such developments will push stock prices to higher levels and the stock market will exhibit a bullish period.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Rather, Mohanty et al . (2011) maintains that oil price effects are different in countries that are oil-exporters, compared to these that are oil-importers.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Mohanty et al. (2011)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, increased oil prices will reduce firms' demand for irreversible investments, which in turn, reduce expected cash flows.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“It is worth noting here that as uncertainty rises due to increased oil prices, the value of postponing both investment and consumption decisions increases and thus, a decrease in the incentive to invest or consume is observed, which thereby dampens economic growth prospects (Chuku et al. , 2010) and thus stock market returns.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chuku et al., 2010
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Increased oil prices tend to lead to a transfer of wealth from oil-importing economies to oil-exporting ones (Dohner, 1981), which allow for increased government purchases.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Dohner, 1981
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, even though an oil-exporting economy will also experience negative production cost effects, it will benefit from a positive income effect, due to increased oil revenues (the value of export demand for oil rises), leading to higher aggregate demand and thus higher output.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“More specifically, the results indicate that before the GFC there was no evidence of asymmetric effects. By contrast, during and after the GFC, firm-level stock returns are more reactive to negative changes in oil prices.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Tsai's (2015)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Furthermore, uncertainty is also propagated to households which reduce their consumption of durable goods (Bernanke 1983; Pindyck 2003).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Bernanke 1983
- Not checked yetcites Pindyck 2003
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“More specifically, the authors claim that a negative relationship holds during the 70s and the 90s. By contrast, in the 80s the authors cannot report any significant effects of oil prices on stock returns. Finally, they find evidence that the negative effects of oil prices on stock markets are reversed into positive effects after 1999.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Miller and Ratti (2009)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In particular, lower aggregate demand leads to lower expected cash flows for firms, which further leads to lower stock prices.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The aggregate demand shocks , according to Kilian's studies are related to oil price changes which are influenced by movements in the global business cycle.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2008b, 2009)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“To put it simply, increasing (decreasing) freight rates may indicate higher (lower) global demand.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2009)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Finally, Awartani and Maghyereh (2013) show that the effects between oil and stock markets are time-varying and bidirectional. However, it is evident that the oil market exercises greater effects on stock markets rather than the reverse. In addition, they show that these bidirectional effects are more prominent after the GFC of 200709.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Awartani and Maghyereh (2013)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Hamilton (2009a, 2009b) maintains that oil prices change in response to either geopolitical or economic events, which suggests that oil prices change due to supply disruptions ( supply-side shocks) or economic growth/downturns ( demand-side shocks).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Hamilton (2009a, 2009b)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, positive aggregate demand shocks seem to be regarded as positive news for stock markets (hence the positive response), even though they create an upward movement in oil prices. This is expected, as positive aggregate demand shocks reflect periods of economic growth, which are positive news for financial markets.”
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Huang et al. (1996) opine that oil and stock market linkages could potentially be realized through their volatilities.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Huang et al. (1996)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“One of the early findings in this line of research is by Filis et al. (2011), who show that the correlation between oil and stock markets is time-varying and responds to the various oil price shocks. In particular, they show that precautionary demand ( aggregate demand ) shocks lead to lower (higher) correlations between oil and stock market returns and though the magnitude of”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Filis et al. (2011)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Their findings show that supplyside shocks do not exercise any effects, whereas negative responses are observed for the two demand-side shocks. In particular, positive aggregate demand and precautionary demand shocks lead to lower covariability between the returns and volatility of the US market.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kang et al. (2015a)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Degiannakis et al. (2014), who focus on the European stock market, show evidence that stock market volatility responds negatively (i.e. reduces) to positive aggregate demand shocks, whereas no significant response is evident to supply-side and precautionary demand shocks. Their findings hold true for aggregate stock market indices, as well as for ten industrial sectors.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Degiannakis et al. (2014)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Overall, the argument behind the development of oil price shocks as a mechanism to explain the effects of the oil market on stock market performance stems from the fact that oil price changes are not necessarily exogenous, as it was the common approach of previous studies. On the contrary, reverse causality, between macro-finance variables and oil prices, does”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Barsky and Kilian (2002)
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The authors report similar findings with Kilian and Park (2009), nevertheless, they maintain that these effects are small in magnitude and, thus, they conclude that international financial markets do not really value oil shocks.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Apergis and Miller (2009)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Kilian (2008b, 2009) maintain that there are three types of oil price shocks, namely, the supply-side , aggregate demand and precautionary demand shocks.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2008b, 2009)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Kilian (2009) suggests that the most plausible explanation is that these innovations can be explained by changes in the precautionary demand for oil and, thus, these are named precautionary demand shocks (also named as the oil-specific demand shocks or the idiosyncratic oil demand shocks).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2009)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This is the first study to explicitly show that the relationship between each of the three shocks and stock markets returns is indeed time-varying, and fluctuates between both positive and negative correlations. The only exemption is the correlation between the US stock returns and aggregate demand shocks, which always exhibit a positive correlation. The authors also proceed”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Broadstock and Filis (2014)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“The authors focus on both US stock market returns and volatility and their findings reveal that, indeed, disentangling oil price changes according to the individual shocks provides significantly incremental predictive information for the regime of US stock returns and volatility. In particular, they show that positive supply-side and aggregate demand shocks push the US”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Angelidis et al. (2015)
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“Kilian and Park (2009) utilize Kilian's (2009) definitions of oil price shocks for the US stock market, and show that the different oil price shocks trigger different responses from the stock market. In particular, they find that stock market returns do not really respond to supply-side shocks, whereas positive (negative) responses are observed during aggregate demand ( precautionary”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian and Park (2009)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The index does not measure global output, but rather is a measure for global industrial commodities demand, as a result of worldwide economic activity (i.e. the global business cycle).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2009)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Increasing freight rates suggests that the shipping industry operates closer to full capacity and this is true only during times of economic booms.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2009)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“As far as volatility is concerned, Jung and Park (2011) show that the responses are different between the two countries and among the three shocks. More specifically, they maintain that Norwegian stock market volatility responds favorably (i.e. reduces) to positive aggregate demand shocks, whereas insignificant effects are reported to supply-side and precautionary demand shocks. By contrast, it”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jung and Park (2011)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They show that in almost the whole study period (1973-2012) the aggregate demand ( precautionary demand ) shocks exercise a positive (negative) effect, although the magnitude of the effects diminish towards the latter part of the study. The supply-side shocks seem to have a significant negative effect in the early years (1973-1980), whereas marginal or insignificant effects”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kang et al. (2015b)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such findings might be justified by the fact that OPEC decisions are somewhat anticipated and, thus, they are discounted by market participants.”
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to these studies supply-side shocks are related to restrictions in oil supply by OPEC, via cartel behavior, as a strategy to inflate oil prices.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2008b, 2009)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Ross (1989) maintains that volatilities from different assets can affect each other.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ross (1989)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“They find that emerging stock markets do not seem to react to supply-side shocks, whereas a positive response is observed for both aggregate demand and precautionary demand shocks.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Basher et al. (2012)
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“innovations to real oil prices that are not explained by either supply-side or aggregate demand oil price shocks should reflect changes in the demand for oil for reasons other than demand for industrial commodities or production changes by OPEC.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2009)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“On the other hand, geopolitical unrest, primarily observed in the Middle-East region, does not lead to supply-side oil price shocks. On the contrary, they posit that these events trigger precautionary demand shocks, which result due to the uncertainty that the geopolitical turbulence imposes on economic agents about the future availability of oil.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2008b, 2009)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Kang et al. (2015a), on the other hand, concentrate on the US market and find that both demand-side shocks (i.e. aggregate demand and precautionary demand shocks) lead to lower stock market volatility.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kang et al. (2015a)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“To put it simply, Kilian and co-authors maintain that economic agents expect a shortage in oil supply soon after initiation of geopolitical unrest and, thus, they increase their demand for oil instantly, driving oil prices to higher levels.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian (2008b, 2009)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“They find that both the origin of the oil price shock as well as the type of the industry influence the time-varying correlation between oil and sectoral stock returns.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Degiannakis et al. (2013)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“He reports that the time-varying correlation between these two sectors and oil price changes fluctuates in both positive and negative regions for both sectors.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Sadorsky (2012)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Their findings for the aggregate industry's returns corroborate those of the previous studies. Additionally, they also show that even negative supply-side shocks trigger negative responses from the oil and gas sector's returns. Concerning the individual oil and gas companies, we notice that the effects are not company specific but they are industryspecific, as all shocks trigger positive responses”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kang et al. (2017)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
In the paper
“Kilian and Park (2009) also provide evidence that the effects of oil price shocks are industry-specific. In particular, they show that the Automobile & Trucks and Retail industries only respond (negatively) to precautionary demand shocks, whereas Petroleum & Natural Gas and Precious Metals only respond (positively) to aggregate demand shocks.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kilian and Park (2009)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Regarding the difference in stock market responses to precautionary demand shocks, this stems from the fact that even though such shocks are related to geopolitical tensions, the oilexporting economy can have some short-term benefits from the increase in the price of oil.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Finally, given that the oil market has become more financialized in recent years due to the increased participation of hedge funds studies should investigate further the role of the speculative activity in the oil market and how this financialization has altered its nature.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Büyüksahin and Robe, 2014
- Not checked yetcites Silvennoinen and Thorp, 2013
- Not checked yetcites Fattouh et al., 2012
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More recent evidence shows that the relationship between the two markets is timevarying.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are only three studies that examine the informational content of stock markets when forecasting oil prices.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of data, it is typical for authors to use WTI or Brent crude oil prices to measure oil price returns and volatility.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is evident from the aforementioned studies that several different methods have been employed, as well as different sets of data.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus far, the evidence reported in the previous sections does not capture possible heterogeneous relationships between oil price and stock market volatilities over different time periods.”
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, G7 countries and aggregate European stock market indices have been also considered.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There are various channels that impact firm cash flow and/or their discount rates.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, there is not much consistency in the measurement of oil price volatility given that authors use both conditional and realized oil price volatilities.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, studies which consider the time-varying relationship between the two market volatilities also consider the newly developed Spillover Index and Connectedness Index by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012 and 2014).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Diebold and Yilmaz (2012 and 2014)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of stock market data, the existing literature primarily uses aggregate stock markets for the US and GCC countries.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, a small number of studies consider sectoral indices, but only for the US and Europe.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The reverse applies for oil-exporting countries.”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More specifically, studies use both Brent and WTI crude oil prices, although the latter is more commonly employed.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, despite the importance of oil prices for the global economy, the linkages between oil and stock markets (either in returns or in volatilities), as well as the fact that these markets exhibit a dynamic relationship, there is a small number of studies that have evaluated the information content of stock markets in forecasting both oil prices and oil price volatility.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, the volatility measure that is most commonly used in the studies is conditional volatility, rather than the realized volatility.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The authors state this as an assumption.
There are no perfect substitution effects between production factors for oil-consuming firms.
“assuming that there are no perfect substitution effects between production factors, see Basher and Sadorsky, 2006”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A central bank follows some type of rule.
“Assuming that a central bank follows some type of rule”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A central bank is highly credible.
“Assuming a highly credible central bank”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Consumption and government purchases are complements.
“Assuming that consumption and government purchases are considered complements”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Consumption and government purchases are substitutes.
“if consumption and government purchases are regarded as substitutes”
The paper relies on this without support.
The income effect is generally larger than the production effect in oil-exporting economies.
“The income effect is generally larger than the production effect in oil exporting economies”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The monetary authority tries to counteract potential increases in inflation by reducing the supply of money.
“Assuming that the monetary authority tries to counteract potential increases in inflation by reducing the supply of money”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The monetary authority of the oil-exporting economy responds with contractionary monetary policy.
“Assuming that the monetary authority of the oilexporting economy responds with contractionary monetary policy”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Some studies, starting with [32] and [33], say that when oil prices go up, the stock market goes down.”
From Dynamics of economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries: a panel ARDL approach (2024) · cites this paper as [32]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 4.2.2. Oil-importing countries and oil-exporting countries · p. 21
“Norway is an oil-exporter, whereas Korea is an oilimporting country.”
§ 4.2.2. Oil-importing countries and oil-exporting countries · p. 21
“the effects are more prevalent for the Norwegian stock market, given the oilimporting character of the country.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 6.1. Oil price forecasting · p. 29
“There are only three studies that examine the informational content of stock markets when forecasting oil prices.”
§ 6.3. Econometric methods and data used · p. 31
“Chen (2014) and Yin and Yang (2016) use predictive regression models 10 , whereas Baumeister et al . (2015) and Degiannakis and Filis (2017b) employ a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 7. Conclusions and ideas for further study · p. 33
“Oil price volatility exercises a significant effect on stock market volatility, whereas the reverse holds true only in the case of the US market.”
§ 5.2. Time-varying relationship between oil and stock market volatility · p. 27
“Similarly, stock market volatility positively affects oil price volatility, although these effects disappear during tranquil periods.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ 5.1.1. Relationship between oil and stock market volatility · p. 25
“six US sectoral stock market indices”
§ 5.1.1. Relationship between oil and stock market volatility · p. 25
“Financials, Industrials, Consumer Services, Health Care and Technology”
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Degiannakis, S., Filis, G., & Arora, V.
- Affiliations
- Panteion University (GR)
- Venue
- The Energy Journal
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-09
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 85-130
- ISSN
- 0195-6574 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9089
- OpenAlex
- W2888423870
- Semantic Scholar
- 1ae4b04fbe0665784503a2407b6fecfb68c611d6
- Cited by
- 298
- References
- 179
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 48 · 2022: 48 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 28.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Energy Journal (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Keywords
- oil prices, stock market, oil price shocks, oil price volatility, stock market volatility, oil-importing countries, oil-exporting countries, asymmetric price effects, oil price forecasting, stock market indices, sectoral stock indices, firm-level data
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-06, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-06 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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