Cited by 5Insurance and Financial Risk ManagementProbability and Risk ModelsCustomer churn and segmentation

Machine Learning Methods to Perform Pricing Optimization: A Comparison with Standard Generalized Linear Models

Open access
Spedicato, Giorgio, Dutang, Christophe, Petrini, Leonardo·2018·Variance

Abstract

As the level of competition increases, pricing optimization is gaining a central role in most mature insurance markets, forcing insurers to optimize their rating and consider customer behavior; the modeling scene for the latter is one currently dominated by frameworks based on generalized linear models (GLMs). In this paper, we explore the applicability of novel machine learning techniques, such as tree-boosted models, to optimize the proposed premium on prospective policyholders. Given their predictive gain over GLMs, we carefully analyze both the advantages and disadvantages induced by their use.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.66573/001c.116043

Cites

21 of 21 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Competitive policies are not priced too expensively at other insurers, so it is relatively attractive to switch insurers.

    “Similarly, competitive policies are not priced too expensively at other insurers, so it is relatively attractive to switch insurers (De la Llave et al., 2019;Leiria et al., 2021;Spedicato et al., 2018).”

    From Customer price sensitivities in competitive insurance markets (2022) · cites this paper as Spedicato et al., 2018

    The Introduction (page unavailable) says web aggregators make competing insurers’ quotes easier to compare and that customers may accept competitors’ deals. It does not establish that those policies are generally inexpensive or that switching insurers is relatively attractive. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 14

  1. Frees, E. W., G. Meyers, and R. A. Derrig, Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science: Volume 2, Case Studies in Insurance, International Series on Actuarial Science, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2016 .
  2. Guven, S., and M. McPhail, "Beyond the Cost Model: Under- standing Price Elasticity and Its Applications," Casualty Actuarial Society EForum, Spring 2013, pp. 1-29.
  3. Kuhn, M., "Optimization Methods for Tuning Predictive Models," paper presented to Cambridge (UK) R User Group, 2016.
  4. LeDell, E., S. Sapp, and M. van der Laan, "Subsemble: An Ensemble Method for Combining Subset-Specific Algorithm Fits," Journal of Applied Statistics, 41:6, 2014, pp. 1247-1259.
  5. Liaw, A., and M. Wiener, "Classification and Regression by Random Forest," R News 2:3, 2002, pp. 18-22. References
  6. Baribeau, A. G., "Price Optimization and the Descending Confusion," Actuarial Review, September/October 2015, pp. 30-33.
  7. Dal Pozzolo, A., G. Moro, and G. Bontempi, "Comparison of Data Mining Techniques for Insurance Claim Prediction," Master's thesis, University of Bologna, 2011.
  8. Dutang, C., "The Customer, the Insurer and the Market," Bulletin Français d'Actuariat 12:24, 2012, pp. 35-85.
  9. Wiley, J. F., 2016, R Deep Learning Essentials, Birmingham, UK: Packt Publishing Ltd.
  10. Marin, A., and T. Bayley, "Price Optimization for New Business Profit and Growth," Emphasis 2010 (1), pp. 18-22.
  11. Milhaud, X., S. Loisel, and V. Maume-Deschamps, "Surrender Trigger in Life Insurance: What Main Features Affect the Surrender Behaviors in a Classical Economic Context?," Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, 11:22, pp. 5-48, 2011.
  12. Nykodym, T., T. Kraljevic, N. Hussami, A. Rao, and A. Wang, Generalized Linear Modeling with H2O (5th ed.), Mountain View, CA: H2O.ai, 2016, https://h2o-release.s3.amazonaws. com/h2o/rel-turing/10/docs-website/h2o-docs/booklets/ GLMBooklet.pdf.
  13. Nykodym, T., A. Rao, A. Wang, T. Kraljevic, J. Lanford, and N. Hussami, Generalized Linear Modeling with H2O (3rd ed.), Mountain View, CA: H2O.ai, 2015, https://h2o-release.s3. amazonaws.com/h2o/rel-slater/9/docs-website/h2o-docs/ booklets/GLM_Vignette.pdf.
  14. Rish, I., 2001, "An Empirical Study of the Naive Bayes Clas- sifier," Proceedings of IJCAI 2001 Workshop on Empirical Methods in Artificial Intelligence, 3, pp. 41-46.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Spedicato, G., Dutang, C., & Petrini, L.
Affiliations
  • Unipol Group, Italy
  • Université Paris Dauphine-PSL (FR)
  • Virality
Venue
Variance
Published
2018-01-01
Volume
12
Issue
1
ISSN
1940-6452 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W7154608141
Cited by
5
References
21
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2022: 1
FWCI
0.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Variance (publishedVersion)
Funders
Society of Actuaries
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Insurance and Financial Risk Management
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Probability and Risk Models
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Marketing › Customer churn and segmentation
Keywords
price optimization, insurance rating, generalized linear models, customer behavior modeling, model comparison

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review