The DOI matches its Crossref record; 23 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Tobacco Control and the Reduction in Smoking-Related Premature Deaths in the United States, 1964-2012
Open accessAbstract
IMPORTANCE: January 2014 marks the 50th anniversary of the first surgeon general's report on smoking and health. This seminal document inspired efforts by governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to reduce the toll of cigarette smoking through reduced initiation and increased cessation. OBJECTIVE: To model reductions in smoking-related mortality associated with implementation of tobacco control since 1964. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Smoking histories for individual birth cohorts that actually occurred and under likely scenarios had tobacco control never emerged were estimated. National mortality rates and mortality rate ratio estimates from analytical studies of the effect of smoking on mortality yielded death rates by smoking status. Actual smoking-related mortality from 1964 through 2012 was compared with estimated mortality under no tobacco control that included a likely scenario (primary counterfactual) and upper and lower bounds that would capture plausible alternatives. EXPOSURES: National Health Interview Surveys yielded cigarette smoking histories for the US adult population in 1964-2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of premature deaths avoided and years of life saved were primary outcomes. Change in life expectancy at age 40 years associated with change in cigarette smoking exposure constituted another measure of overall health outcomes. RESULTS: In 1964-2012, an estimated 17.7 million deaths were related to smoking, an estimated 8.0 million (credible range [CR], 7.4-8.3 million, for the lower and upper tobacco control counterfactuals, respectively) fewer premature smoking-related deaths than what would have occurred under the alternatives and thus associated with tobacco control (5.3 million [CR, 4.8-5.5 million] men and 2.7 million [CR, 2.5-2.7 million] women). This resulted in an estimated 157 million years (CR, 139-165 million) of life saved, a mean of 19.6 years for each beneficiary (111 million [CR, 97-117 million] for men, 46 million [CR, 42-48 million] for women). During this time, estimated life expectancy at age 40 years increased 7.8 years for men and 5.4 years for women, of which tobacco control is associated with 2.3 years (CR, 1.8-2.5) (30% [CR, 23%-32%]) of the increase for men and 1.6 years (CR, 1.4-1.7) (29% [CR, 25%-32%]) for women. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Tobacco control was estimated to be associated with avoidance of 8 million premature deaths and an estimated extended mean life span of 19 to 20 years. Although tobacco control represents an important public health achievement, efforts must continue to reduce the effect of smoking on the nation's death toll.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Effective implementation and enforcement of tobacco control policies and interventions can both increase healthy life expectancy and decrease health-care costs.”
From Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (2021) · cites this paper as [5]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Tanoue, L. T. (2007) · Yearbook of Medicine · doi:10.1016/s0084-3873(08)70176-7 · Cited by 1,413
50-Year Trends in Smoking-Related Mortality in the United States
Thun, M. J., Carter, B. D., Feskanich, D., Freedman, N. D., Prentice, R., Lopez, A. D., Hartge, P., & Gapstur, S. M. (2013) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmsa1211127 · Cited by 1,177 · cited 1×
“1974-1983 54 216 68 870 14 654 (21) 68 759 14 543 (21) 68 966 14 750 (21)”
The Mortality of Doctors in Relation to Their Smoking Habits
Doll, R., & Hill, A. B. (1954) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.1.4877.1451 · Cited by 924
Glover, J. W. (2010) · Cited by 917
Wynder, E., & Graham, E. A. (1950) · Journal of the American Medical Association · doi:10.1001/jama.1950.02910390001001 · Cited by 906
Vidrine, J. I., Shete, S. S., Cao, Y., Greisinger, A. J., Harmonson, P., Sharp, B., Miles, L., Zbikowski, S. M., & Wetter, D. W. (2013) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2013.3751 · Cited by 270 · cited 1×
“1984-1993 1148 1590 442 (28) 1584 436 (28) 1591 442 (28)”
United States Life Tables, 2021.
Arias, E., Xu, J., & Kd, K. (2010) · PubMed · Cited by 224
Patterns of Birth Cohort–Specific Smoking Histories, 1965–2009
Holford, T. R., Levy, D. T., McKay, L. A., Clarke, L. D., Racine, B., Meza, R., Land, S. R., Jeon, J., & Feuer, E. J. (2014) · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.022 · Cited by 199
Self-citationImpact of Reduced Tobacco Smoking on Lung Cancer Mortality in the United States During 1975–2000
Moolgavkar, S. H., Holford, T. R., Levy, D. T., Kong, C. Y., Foy, M., Clarke, L. D., Jeon, J., Hazelton, W. D., Meza, R., Schultz, F. W., et al. (2012) · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/djs136 · Cited by 184
Self-citationTobacco smoking as a possible etiologic factor in bronchiogenic carcinoma.
Wynder, E. L., & GRAHAM, E. A. (2005) · PubMed Central · Cited by 161
Effectiveness of the 5-As Tobacco Cessation Treatments in Nine HMOs
Quinn, V. P., Hollis, J. F., Smith, K., Rigotti, N. A., Solberg, L. I., Hu, W., & Stevens, V. J. (2008) · Journal of General Internal Medicine · doi:10.1007/s11606-008-0865-9 · Cited by 114 · cited 4×
“1974-1983 9876 13 391 3515 (26) 13 333 3457 (26) 13 447 3572 (27)”
InfluentialEffects of the antismoking campaign: an update.
Warner, K. E. (1989) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.79.2.144 · Cited by 111 · cited 1×
“1974-1983 3545 4357 811 (19) 4353 808 (19) 4359 814 (19)”
Self-citationModeling the Impact of Smoking-Cessation Treatment Policies on Quit Rates
Levy, D. T., Graham, A. L., Mabry, P. L., Abrams, D. B., & Orleans, C. T. (2010) · American Journal of Preventive Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2009.11.016 · Cited by 74 · cited 2×
“Total 13 141 18 460 5319 (29) 17 986 4845 (27) 18 678 5537 (30)”
Self-citationChapter 2: Birth‐Cohort‐Specific Estimates of Smoking Behaviors for the U.S. Population
Anderson, C. M., Burns, D., Dodd, K. W., & Feuer, E. J. (2012) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01703.x · Cited by 68 · cited 3×
“1964-1973 2751 2973 222 (7) 2973 222 (7) 2973 222 (7)”
InfluentialChapter 3: Cohort Life Tables by Smoking Status, Removing Lung Cancer as a Cause of Death
Rosenberg, M. A., Feuer, E. J., Yu, B., Sun, J., Henley, S. J., Shanks, T. G., Anderson, C. M., McMahon, P. M., Thun, M. J., & Burns, D. (2012) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01662.x · Cited by 58 · cited 1×
“1964-1973 3009 3393 384 (11) 3393 384 (11) 3393 384 (11)”
Jeon, J., Meza, R., Krapcho, M. F., Clarke, L. D., Byrne, J. P., & Levy, D. T. (2012) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01775.x · Cited by 56
Self-citationRichardson, A., Rath, J. M., Ganz, O., Xiao, H., & Vallone, D. (2013) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1093/ntr/ntt053 · Cited by 54 · cited 3×
“1974-1983 9876 13 391 3515 (26) 13 333 3457 (26) 13 447 3572 (27)”
Impact of Tobacco Control on Adult per Capita Cigarette Consumption in the United States
Warner, K. E., Sexton, D. W., Gillespie, B. W., Levy, D. T., & Chaloupka, F. J. (2013) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.2013.301591 · Cited by 45
Self-citationHolford, T. R., & Clark, L. A. (2012) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01759.x · Cited by 21
Self-citationTemporal Trends in Smokeless Tobacco Use Among US Middle and High School Students, 2000-2011
Agaku, I. T., Vardavas, C. I., Ayo-Yusuf, O. A., Alpert, H. R., & Connolly, G. N. (2013) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2013.4412 · Cited by 21
E-cigarette use doubles among US middle and high school students
McCarthy, M. C. (2013) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.f5543 · Cited by 15 · cited 3×
“1974-1983 1214 1615 400 (25) 1612 398 (25) 1618 403 (25)”
(2013) · PubMed
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Siegel, R. L., Miller, K. D., & Jemal, A. (2016) · CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians · doi:10.3322/caac.21332 · Cited by 16,003
“1964 have resulted in 8 million fewer premature smokingrelated deaths, one-third of which are due to cancer.(55,56)”
BackgroundSiegel, R. L., Miller, K. D., & Jemal, A. (2017) · CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians · doi:10.3322/caac.21387 · Cited by 14,712
“Tobacco control efforts adopted in the wake of the first Surgeon General’s report on smoking and health in 1964 have resulted in an estimated 8 million fewer premature smokingrelated deaths, one-third of which are due to cancer.(42,43) Despite this progress, in much of the Southern United States, 40% of cancer deaths…”
BackgroundHeart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Benjamin, E. J., Blaha, M. J., Chiuve, S. E., Cushman, M., Das, S. R., Deo, R., de Ferranti, S. D., Floyd, J., Fornage, M., Gillespie, C., et al. (2017) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000485 · Cited by 12,591
Siegel, R. L., Miller, K. D., & Jemal, A. (2015) · CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians · doi:10.3322/caac.21254 · Cited by 11,854
“trol efforts adopted in the wake of the first Surgeon General’s report on smoking and health in 1964 have resulted in 8 million fewer premature smoking-related deaths, one-third of which are due to cancer.(50,51) Death rates for female breast”
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Virani, S. S., Alonso, A., Benjamin, E. J., Bittencourt, M. S., Callaway, C. W., Carson, A. P., Chamberlain, A. M., Chang, A. R., Cheng, S., Delling, F. N., et al. (2020) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000757 · Cited by 9,175
Metadata
- Authors
- Holford, T. R., Meza, R., Warner, K. E., Meernik, C., Jeon, J., Moolgavkar, S. H., & Levy, D. T.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Fred Hutch Cancer Center (US)
- Georgetown University (US)
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2014-01-08
- Volume
- 311
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 164
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- PMC
- PMC4056770
- OpenAlex
- W1990025032
- Cited by
- 317
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 36 · 2014: 23
- FWCI
- 26.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5u01ca152956-05)
- National Cancer Institute (U01-CA-152956, R01-CA-152956)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- tobacco control, smoking-related mortality, premature mortality, life-years saved, counterfactual analysis, life expectancy, smoking cessation, smoking initiation, birth cohort, gender differences in smoking, mortality rate ratio, National Health Interview Survey
- MeSH terms
- Smoking Prevention, Adult, Aged, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Medical Records, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Smoking, Social Control, Formal, United States, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Smoking Cessation, Government Regulation, Mortality, Premature
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
