Colorectal Cancer Screening: An Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force
Open accessAbstract
Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Objective: To provide updated model-based estimates of the benefits, burden, and harms of colorectal cancer screening strategies and to identify strategies that may provide an efficient balance of life-years gained (LYG) from screening and colonoscopy burden to inform the USPSTF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Comparative modeling study using 3 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer screening in a hypothetical cohort of 40-year-old US individuals at average risk of colorectal cancer. Exposures: Screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 years to ages 70, 75, 80, or 85 years with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), multitarget stool DNA testing, flexible sigmoidoscopy alone or with FIT, computed tomography colonography, or colonoscopy. All persons with an abnormal noncolonoscopy screening test result were assumed to undergo follow-up colonoscopy. Screening intervals varied by test. Full adherence with all procedures was assumed. Main Outcome and Measures: Estimated LYG relative to no screening (benefit), lifetime number of colonoscopies (burden), number of complications from screening (harms), and balance of incremental burden and benefit (efficiency ratios). Efficient strategies were those estimated to require fewer additional colonoscopies per additional LYG relative to other strategies. Results: Estimated LYG from screening strategies ranged from 171 to 381 per 1000 40-year-olds. Lifetime colonoscopy burden ranged from 624 to 6817 per 1000 individuals, and screening complications ranged from 5 to 22 per 1000 individuals. Among the 49 strategies that were efficient options with all 3 models, 41 specified screening beginning at age 45. No single age to end screening was predominant among the efficient strategies, although the additional LYG from continuing screening after age 75 were generally small. With the exception of a 5-year interval for computed tomography colonography, no screening interval predominated among the efficient strategies for each modality. Among the strategies highlighted in the 2016 USPSTF recommendation, lowering the age to begin screening from 50 to 45 years was estimated to result in 22 to 27 additional LYG, 161 to 784 additional colonoscopies, and 0.1 to 2 additional complications per 1000 persons (ranges are across screening strategies, based on mean estimates across models). Assuming full adherence, screening outcomes and efficient strategies were similar by sex and race and across 3 scenarios for population risk of colorectal cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: This microsimulation modeling analysis suggests that screening for colorectal cancer with stool tests, endoscopic tests, or computed tomography colonography starting at age 45 years provides an efficient balance of colonoscopy burden and life-years gained.
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The sensitivity of colonoscopy for the detection of intestinal adenomas larger than 1 cm and colorectal cancer is estimated at 95%.
“The sensitivity of colonoscopy for the detection of intestinal adenomas larger than 1 cm and CRC is estimated at 95%[22,68].”
From Risk factors, prevention and screening of colorectal cancer: A rising problem (2025) · cites this paper as [68]
The Methods (Screening Component; page unavailable) says lesion detection depends on test sensitivity and refers to Table 1, but the passages available from our copy do not give a 95% estimate for colonoscopy. Searches for 95%, 0.95, large adenomas, and colorectal cancer did not locate the claimed sensitivity for either lesion type. (LLM, conf=0.70)
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Chiu, H., Chen, S. L., Su, C., Yen, A. M.-F., Hsu, W., Hsu, C.-Y., Lin, T.-Y., Lee, Y., Wu, M., & Chen, T. H.-H. (2025) · JAMA Oncology · doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2025.1433 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations for Colorectal Cancer Screening
Ng, K., May, F. P., & Schrag, D. (2021) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2021.4133 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Vahdat, V., Alagöz, O., Chen, J. V., Saoud, L., Borah, B. J., & Limburg, P. J. (2023) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x231184175 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Colon, colorectal, and all cancer incidence increase in the young due to appendix reclassification
Bleyer, A., Ries, L. A. G., Cameron, D. B., Mansfield, S. A., Siegel, S. E., & Barr, R. D. (2025) · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/djaf038 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Barry, M. J., Wolff, T., Pbert, L. A., Davidson, K. W., Fan, T. M., Krist, A. H., Lin, J. S., Mabry-Hernandez, I. R., Mangione, C. M., Mills, J., et al. (2023) · The Annals of Family Medicine · doi:10.1370/afm.2946 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationColorectal Cancer Screening in a Changing World
Bresalier, R. S. (2022) · Gastroenterology Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.gtc.2022.05.002 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
de Lima, P. N., van den Puttelaar, R., Hahn, A. I., Harlass, M., Collier, N. T., Ozik, J., Zauber, A. G., Lansdorp‐Vogelaar, I., & Rutter, C. M. (2023) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.85264 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationColonoscopy vs the Fecal Immunochemical Test: Which is Best?
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A Practical Overview of the Stool DNA Test for Colorectal Cancer Screening
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Comprehensive Analysis of Early-onset Colorectal Cancer: A Review
Takada, K., Hotta, K., Kishida, Y., Ito, S., Imai, K., & Ono, H. (2023) · Journal of the Anus Rectum and Colon · doi:10.23922/jarc.2023-032 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“Other mi-crosimulation models have also indicated that initiating CRC screening at the age of 45 years could be cost-effective[89,90].”
BackgroundCharacteristics of a cost-effective blood test for colorectal cancer screening
de Lima, P. N., van den Puttelaar, R., Knudsen, A. B., Hahn, A. I., Kuntz, K. M., Ozik, J., Collier, N. T., Alarid‐Escudero, F., Zauber, A. G., Inadomi, J. M., et al. (2024) · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/djae124 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“…used the 3 CRC models part of the CISNET-Colon group: the Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model (MISCAN-Colon) (15,16), the Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer (SimCRC) (17), and the Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history (CRC-SPIN) model (18).”
MethodResultInfluentialSelf-citationUtility of Stool-Based Tests for Colorectal Cancer Detection: A Comprehensive Review
Gómez-Molina, R., Suárez, M., Martínez, R., Chilet, M., Bauçà, J. M., & Mateo, J. (2024) · Healthcare · doi:10.3390/healthcare12161645 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“For instance, in the USA, options for screening include annual FIT, annual gFOBT, and mt-sDNA tests every 3 years [78].”
BackgroundCost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Colorectal Cancer Screening in Community Clinics
de Lima, P. N., Matrajt, L., Coronado, G. D., Escaron, A. L., & Rutter, C. M. (2025) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.54938 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
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A sex-specific propensity-adjusted analysis of colonic adenoma detection rates in a screening cohort
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Advances in Imaging of Inflammation, Fibrosis, and Cancer in the Gastrointestinal Tract
Harold, K. M., MacCuaig, W. M., Charkrabarty, J. H., Williams, K. M., Hill, K. B., Arreola, A. X., Sekhri, M., Carter, S., Gómez-Gutiérrez, J. G., Salem, G., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms232416109 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“Both colorectal cancer and adenomas ≥10 mm can be detected by colonoscopy with a sensitivity of approximately 95% [121].”
BackgroundEtzioni, R., Gulati, R., Patriotis, C., Rutter, C. M., Zheng, Y., Srivastava, S., & Feng, Z. (2023) · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/djad227 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationJiang, J., Xie, Z., Wang, Q., Wang, B., Huang, R., Xu, W., Shang, C., & Chen, Y. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-024-21192-3 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Bershteyn, A., Richard, E., Zhou, Q., Khan, M. R., Scheidell, J. D., Manandhar-Sasaki, P., Ban, K. F., Crystal, S., Gordon, A. J., Justice, A. C., et al. (2023) · The Lancet HIV · doi:10.1016/s2352-3018(22)00361-7 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Zauber, A. G., Winawer, S. J., O’Brien, M. J., Mills, G. M., Allen, J. I., Feld, A. D., Jordan, P., Fleisher, M., Orlow, I., Meester, R. G. S., et al. (2023) · Gastroenterology · doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2023.03.206 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationGranata, V., Fusco, R., Muzio, F. D., Cutolo, C., Setola, S. V., Dell’Aversana, F., Belli, A., Romano, C., Ottaiano, A., Nasti, G., et al. (2022) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm11082221 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Shih, Y. T., Sabik, L. M., Stout, N. K., Halpern, M. T., Lipscomb, J., Ramsey, S. D., & Ritzwoller, D. P. (2022) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/jncimonographs/lgac008 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Age at Initiation of Lower Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and Colorectal Cancer Risk Among US Women
Ma, W., Wang, M., Wang, K., Cao, Y., Hertzmark, E., Ogino, S., Ng, K., Willett, W. C., Giovannucci, E. L., Song, M., et al. (2022) · JAMA Oncology · doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2022.0883 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Abbes, S., Baldi, S., Sellami, H., Amedei, A., & Keskes, L. (2023) · World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology · doi:10.4251/wjgo.v15.i3.425 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Brenner, H., Heisser, T., Cardoso, R., & Hoffmeister, M. (2023) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-023-01031-2 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Patient perspectives on a proposed pharmacy-based colorectal cancer screening program
Ferrari, R. M., Atkins, D. L., Wangen, M., Rohweder, C. L., Waters, A. R., Correa, S. Y., Richmond, J., van Rensburg, D., Ittes, A., Odebunmi, O. O., et al. (2023) · Translational Behavioral Medicine · doi:10.1093/tbm/ibad057 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
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Jayasekera, J. C., Elkefi, S., Fernandez, J. R., Wojcik, K. M., Woo, J. M. P., Ezeani, A., Ish, J. L., Bhattacharya, M., Ogunsina, K., Chang, C.-J., et al. (2023) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/jncimonographs/lgad020 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Impact of racial disparities in follow-up and quality of colonoscopy on colorectal cancer outcomes
Alagöz, O., May, F. P., Doubeni, C. A., Fendrick, A. M., Vahdat, V., Estes, C. R., Ellis, T., Limburg, P. J., & Brooks, D. D. (2024) · JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/djae140 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Similarly, the screening performance characteristics were derived from the modeling work that informed the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines (see Table 1) (26,27).”
How and why do we screen for colorectal cancer?
Chetroiu, D., Pop, C.-S., Filip, P. V., & Beuran, M. (2021) · Journal of Medicine and Life · doi:10.25122/jml-2021-0192 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
de Paula, T. R., Haas, E. M., & Keller, D. S. (2021) · Surgical Endoscopy · doi:10.1007/s00464-021-08929-6 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Commencing colorectal cancer screening at age 45 years in U.S. racial groups
Carethers, J. M. (2022) · Frontiers in Oncology · doi:10.3389/fonc.2022.966998 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Black-White disparities in colorectal cancer outcomes: a simulation study of screening benefit
Rutter, C. M., de Lima, P. N., Maerzluft, C., May, F. P., & Murphy, C. C. (2023) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/jncimonographs/lgad019 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationReducing the Burden of Colorectal Cancer: AGA Position Statements
Lieberman, D. A., Ladabaum, U., Brill, J. V., May, F. P., Kim, L. S., Murphy, C. C., Wender, R. C., & Teixeira, K. (2022) · Gastroenterology · doi:10.1053/j.gastro.2022.05.011 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Patient Navigation to Improve Colonoscopy Completion After an Abnormal Stool Test Result
Coronado, G. D., Petrik, A. F., Thompson, J. H., Leo, M. C., Slaughter, M. T., Gautom, P., Hussain, S. A., Mosso, L., Gibbs, J. T., Yadav, N., et al. (2025) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/annals-24-01885 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Kaminski, M. F., Kalager, M., Løberg, M., Emilsson, L., Macios, A., Samy, F., Shi, J., Fielding, S., Hernán, M. Á., Garborg, K. K., et al. (2026) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(26)00508-8 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk Factors for Early-onset Sporadic Colorectal Cancer in Male Veterans
Imperiale, T. F., Myers, L. J., Barker, B. C., Larson, J. C., Stump, T. E., & Daggy, J. (2023) · Cancer Prevention Research · doi:10.1158/1940-6207.capr-22-0506 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Cancer of colon, rectum and anus: the rising burden of disease worldwide from 1990 to 2019
Ilić, M., & Ilić, I. (2023) · Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdad197 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Escaron, A. L., Garcia, J., Petrik, A. F., Ruiz, E., Nyongesa, D. B., Thompson, J. H., & Coronado, G. D. (2022) · Journal of Primary Care & Community Health · doi:10.1177/21501319221138423 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Liang, Q., Mukama, T., Sundquist, K., Sundquist, J., Brenner, H., Kharazmi, E., & Fallah, M. (2024) · JAMA Oncology · doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2024.0827 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
CST: A Multitask Learning Framework for Colorectal Cancer Region Mining Based on Transformer
Sui, D., Zhang, K., Liu, W., Chen, J., Ma, X., & Tian, Z. (2021) · BioMed Research International · doi:10.1155/2021/6207964 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“In the past decades, imaging approaches such as computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have become an effective way for colorectal cancer diagnosis; doctors can get an overall scheme of the tumour region in a comprehensive way without invasion [2, 6].”
BackgroundFor insights into the real world, consider real-world data
Raoof, S., & Kurzrock, R. (2022) · Science Translational Medicine · doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.abn6911 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Thiruvengadam, N. R., Gupta, S., Buller, S., Awad, I., Gandhi, D., Ibarra, A. N., Latorre, G., Riquelme, A. J., Kochman, M. L., Coté, G. A., et al. (2023) · Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.cgh.2023.05.028 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Comparison of Simulated Outcomes Between Stool- and Blood-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Tests
Fendrick, A. M., Vahdat, V., Chen, J. V., Lieberman, D. A., Limburg, P. J., Ozbay, A. B., & Kisiel, J. B. (2023) · Population Health Management · doi:10.1089/pop.2023.0037 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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Alagöz, O., Zhang, Y., Arroyo, N., Fernandes‐Taylor, S., Yang, D., Krebsbach, C., Venkatesh, M., Hsiao, V., Davies, L., & Francis, D. O. (2023) · Value in Health · doi:10.1016/j.jval.2023.12.007 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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Chinese consensus on prevention of colorectal neoplasia (2021, S hanghai)
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Lew, J., Feletto, E., Worthington, J., Roder, D. M., Canuto, K. J., Miller, C. L., D’Onise, K., & Canfell, K. (2022) · Journal of Cancer Policy · doi:10.1016/j.jcpo.2022.100325 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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“…CTC as an alternative screening tool for CRC, but other guidelines stated that CTC should not be considered as a primary screening tool for CRC. 27,30,31 The major concerns include common extracolonic findings, uncertain serious harm from follow-up colonoscopy after an abnormal CTC test…”
InfluentialPatient preferences for the design of a pharmacy-based colorectal cancer screening program
Brenner, A. T., Waters, A. R., Wangen, M., Rohweder, C. L., Odebunmi, O. O., Marciniak, M. W., Ferrari, R. M., Wheeler, S. B., & Shah, P. D. (2023) · Cancer Causes & Control · doi:10.1007/s10552-023-01687-x · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Overdiagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Cancer
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Explainable Machine Learning Models for Colorectal Cancer Prediction Using Clinical Laboratory Data
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Screening for Colorectal Cancer: The Role of Clinical Laboratories
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Emerging trends in the global burden of colorectal cancer
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“For example, identifying the optimal screening strategy for a specific region involves assessing regional incidence trends and considering them alongside projected clinical benefits, harms and costs of potential interventions — in summary, strategies must be informed by the local context 167,168 .”
Data gaps and opportunities for modeling cancer health equity
Trentham‐Dietz, A., Corley, D. A., Vecchio, N. J. D., Greenlee, R. T., Haas, J. S., Hubbard, R. A., Hughes, A. E., Kim, J. J., Kobrin, S. C., Li, C. I., et al. (2023) · JNCI Monographs · doi:10.1093/jncimonographs/lgad025 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
- Authors
- Knudsen, A. B., Rutter, C. M., Peterse, E. F. P., Lietz, A. P., Seguin, C. L., Meester, R. G. S., Perdue, L. A., Lin, J. S., Siegel, R. L., Doria-Rose, V. P., Feuer, E. J., Zauber, A. G., Kuntz, K. M., & Lansdorp-Vogelaar, I.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- Massachusetts General Hospital (US)
- Kaiser Permanente (US)
- American Cancer Society (US)
- National Cancer Institute (US)
- Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Corresponding author
- Knudsen, Amy B.
- ORCID
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2021-05-18
- Volume
- 325
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1998
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- PMC
- PMC8409520
- OpenAlex
- W3162019711
- Cited by
- 327
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 70 · 2024: 76 · 2023: 63 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 16 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 19.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
- Kaiser Permanente
- Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
- National Cancer Institute (U01CA199335, U01CA253913, P30CA008748)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Surgical Treatments
- Keywords
- colorectal cancer screening, screening guidelines, life-years gained, fecal immunochemical test, flexible sigmoidoscopy, computed tomography colonography, screening frequency, screening age, efficiency ratio, USPSTF recommendations, average-risk population, microsimulation model, cost-effectiveness, colorectal cancer incidence
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Colonoscopy, Female, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Occult Blood, Risk, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sex Factors, Sigmoidoscopy, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Colorectal Neoplasms, Models, Statistical, Cohort Studies, Early Detection of Cancer
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