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Empirical evidence of design-related bias in studies of diagnostic tests.
Abstract
CONTEXT: The literature contains a large number of potential biases in the evaluation of diagnostic tests. Strict application of appropriate methodological criteria would invalidate the clinical application of most study results. OBJECTIVE: To empirically determine the quantitative effect of study design shortcomings on estimates of diagnostic accuracy. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational study of the methodological features of 184 original studies evaluating 218 diagnostic tests. Meta-analyses on diagnostic tests were identified through a systematic search of the literature using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and DARE databases and the Cochrane Library (1996-1997). Associations between study characteristics and estimates of diagnostic accuracy were evaluated with a regression model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative diagnostic odds ratio (RDOR), which compared the diagnostic odds ratios of studies of a given test that lacked a particular methodological feature with those without the corresponding shortcomings in design. RESULTS: Fifteen (6.8%) of 218 evaluations met all 8 criteria; 64 (30%) met 6 or more. Studies evaluating tests in a diseased population and a separate control group overestimated the diagnostic performance compared with studies that used a clinical population (RDOR, 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-4.5). Studies in which different reference tests were used for positive and negative results of the test under study overestimated the diagnostic performance compared with studies using a single reference test for all patients (RDOR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5-3.3). Diagnostic performance was also overestimated when the reference test was interpreted with knowledge of the test result (RDOR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9), when no criteria for the test were described (RDOR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5), and when no description of the population under study was provided (RDOR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSION: These data provide empirical evidence that diagnostic studies with methodological shortcomings may overestimate the accuracy of a diagnostic test, particularly those including nonrepresentative patients or applying different reference standards.
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“Despite their apparent simplicity, such studies are at risk of bias.6 7”
From STARD 2015: an updated list of essential items for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies (2015) · cites this paper as [6]
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“Knowledge of the predictors might influence outcome assessment, resulting in a biased estimation of the predictor effects for the outcome [6],[17],[39].”
From Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review (2012) · cites this paper as [17]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lijmer, J. G.
- Affiliations
- Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Lijmer, Jeroen G.
- ORCID
- Lijmer, Jeroen G.
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 1999-09-15
- Volume
- 282
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1061
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- OpenAlex
- W1971348077
- Cited by
- 1,861
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2026: 56 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 48 · 2020: 74 · 2019: 50 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 66 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 73 · 2013: 78 · 2012: 79
- FWCI
- 92.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Keywords
- diagnostic accuracy, study design bias, methodological quality, diagnostic odds ratio, reference materials
- MeSH terms
- Diagnostic Tests, Routine, Evaluation Studies as Topic, Quality Control, Reference Standards, Regression Analysis, Research Design, Sensitivity and Specificity, Bias, Odds Ratio
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