Time to publication among completed clinical trials
Open accessAbstract
Prior studies have shown that 25% to 50% of clinical trials are never published.[1][2][3][4] However, among those published, we know little about the length of time required for publication in the peer-reviewed biomedical literature after study completion.Ioannidis previously demonstrated that a sample of randomized phase 2 and 3 trials conducted between 1986 and 1996 required nearly 2.5 years for publication, 5 while our more recent study of National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded trials found that average time to publication was almost two years.4 We sought to determine time to publication for a recent and representative sample of trials published in 2009. METHODSWe examined clinical trials published during the 2009 calendar year that were indexed via MEDLINE and linked to a ClinicalTrials.govidentifier (NCT Number).6 We excluded articles that were not the first publication reporting on the clinical trial by reviewing article text for citations to and searching MEDLINE for earlier trial publications.We imputed completion dates based on the subject enrollment dates and the longest period of follow-up required for any outcome measure reported in the article.For trials without enrollment dates, we used the completion date provided on ClinicalTrials.gov;
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Clinical trial registries have been used to measure publication bias and outcome reporting bias.
“Clinical trial registries are an important source of information for tracking clinical trials from their inception through to their reporting, and have been used to measure publication bias and outcome reporting bias.”
From Systematic review protocol assessing the processes for linking clinical trial registries and their published results (2016) · cites this paper as [13]
The estimated time to publication of covid-19 preprints is different from estimates made from before covid-19.
“our estimated time to publication of covid-19 preprints is different from estimates made from before covid-19.”
From Consistency of covid-19 trial preprints with published reports and impact for decision making: retrospective review (2022) · cites this paper as [48]
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Salinaro, J. R., Rossi, E. C., Penvose, K. N., Zhang, Y., & Darling, A. J. (2024) · Gynecologic Oncology · doi:10.1016/j.ygyno.2024.03.018 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Pool, L., Luyten, C. R. D. P., van der Pluijm, R. W., Soentjens, P. H. P., Hänscheid, T., Grobusch, M. P., & Visser, B. J. (2024) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-024-05115-6 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Ross, J. S., Mocanu, M., Lampropulos, J. F., Tse, T., & Krumholz, H. M.
- Affiliations
- Yale New Haven Hospital (US)
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ross, Joseph S.
- Venue
- JAMA Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2013-05-13
- Volume
- 173
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 825
- ISSN
- 2168-6106 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3691813
- OpenAlex
- W1995839006
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 5
- FWCI
- 16.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JAMA Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (K08 AG032886)
- National Institutes of Health
- U.S. Public Health Service (HHSN276201000788P)
- National Institute on Aging (K08AG032886)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (U01HL105270)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Pharmacology › Pharmaceutical industry and healthcare
- Keywords
- time to publication, clinical trials, trial completion, randomized controlled trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, biomedical literature
- MeSH terms
- Clinical Trials as Topic, Humans, Periodicals as Topic, Publishing, Time Factors, Research Report
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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