Cited by 121Climate variability and modelsCryospheric studies and observationsPrecipitation Measurement and Analysis

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Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

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Lute, A. C., Abatzoglou, J. T., Hegewisch, K. C.·2015·Water Resources Research

DOI 10.1002/2014wr016267

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Abstract

Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow‐dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias‐corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid‐21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low‐snowfall years and less frequent high‐snowfall years were projected for every station.

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Comment on gmd-2021-407
(2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-cc1

Authors: Lute, A. C., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Hegewisch, K. C.
Affiliations: University of Idaho (US)
ORCID: Lute, A. C.
Abatzoglou, J. T.
Hegewisch, K. C.
Venue: Water Resources Research
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2015-02
Volume: 51
Issue: 2
Pages: 960-972
ISSN: 0043-1397 (ISSN-L)
1944-7973
DOI: 10.1002/2014wr016267
OpenAlex: W2159333012
Cited by: 121
References: 50
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 2
FWCI: 7.38
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
repository.library.noaa.gov
Licence: public-domain
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 17 d)
Locations: Water Resources Research (publishedVersion)
NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
Funders: NOAA Climate Impacts Research Consortium (RISA for the Northwest) under (NA10OAR4310218)
Avista Utilities
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
Keywords: climate change projections, heavy rainfall, interannual variability, snowfall days, global climate model downscaling, bias correction, Rocky Mountains, American West, water availability, snowmelt

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Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States

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