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Projected changes in snowfall extremes and interannual variability of snowfall in the western United States
Open accessAbstract
Projected warming will have significant impacts on snowfall accumulation and melt, with implications for water availability and management in snow‐dominated regions. Changes in snowfall extremes are confounded by projected increases in precipitation extremes. Downscaled climate projections from 20 global climate models were bias‐corrected to montane Snowpack Telemetry stations across the western United States to assess mid‐21st century changes in the mean and variability of annual snowfall water equivalent (SFE) and extreme snowfall events, defined by the 90th percentile of cumulative 3 day SFE amounts. Declines in annual SFE and number of snowfall days were projected for all stations. Changes in the magnitude of snowfall event quantiles were sensitive to historical winter temperature. At climatologically cooler locations, such as in the Rocky Mountains, changes in the magnitude of snowfall events mirrored changes in the distribution of precipitation events, with increases in extremes and less change in more moderate events. By contrast, declines in snowfall event magnitudes were found for all quantiles in warmer locations. Common to both warmer and colder sites was a relative increase in the magnitude of snowfall extremes compared to annual SFE and a larger fraction of annual SFE from snowfall extremes. The coefficient of variation of annual SFE increased up to 80% in warmer montane regions due to projected declines in snowfall days and the increased contribution of snowfall extremes to annual SFE. In addition to declines in mean annual SFE, more frequent low‐snowfall years and less frequent high‐snowfall years were projected for every station.
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“As in the simple theory and in global climate-model simulations, there is a strong link in regional simulations [88] and downscaled global simulations [52] between the changes in snowfall extremes and the local climatological temperature in the control climate.”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [52]
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Cites
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- Collins M., 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Items 101–121 of 121
Lute, A. C. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-ac1
Self-citationLute, A. C. (2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-ac3
Self-citation(2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-rc1
(2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-cec1
(2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-cec2
Lute, A. C. (2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-ac2
Self-citation(2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-rc2
Lute, A. C. (2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-ac4
Self-citationLute, A. C. (2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-407-ac5
Self-citationAragon, C. M. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-596-ac1
Aragon, C. M. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-596-ac2
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Climate Projection Models and Data
Giovannettone, J., AghaKouchak, A., Ayyub, B. M., Chen, Z., Devineni, N., Lader, R. T., Sun, F., Tye, M. R., & Wu, T. (2024) · American Society of Civil Engineers eBooks · doi:10.1061/9780784485804.ch2
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Strong human fingerprint on low snowpack amid increasing volatility
Swain, D. L. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2620765123
Climate change both increases and decreases winter snowmelt across North America
Hatami, S., Zaerpour, M., Ballarin, A. S., Barzegar, R., Papalexiou, S. M., Pietroniro, A., & Adamowski, J. (2026) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136410
Metadata
- Authors
- Lute, A. C., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Hegewisch, K. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- Venue
- Water Resources Research
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-02
- Volume
- 51
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 960-972
- ISSN
- 0043-1397 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-7973
- OpenAlex
- W2159333012
- Cited by
- 121
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 2
- FWCI
- 7.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- Locations
- Water Resources Research (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- NOAA Climate Impacts Research Consortium (RISA for the Northwest) under (NA10OAR4310218)
- Avista Utilities
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Precipitation Measurement and Analysis
- Keywords
- climate change projections, heavy rainfall, interannual variability, snowfall days, global climate model downscaling, bias correction, Rocky Mountains, American West, water availability, snowmelt
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