The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
Open accessAbstract
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state‐of‐the‐science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse‐gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO 2 mitigation.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G., & Swingedouw, D. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1511451112 · Cited by 332
Self-citation
Cited by
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., & Saba, V. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 · Cited by 1,078
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
Golledge, N. R., Keller, E. D., Gomez, N., Naughten, K. A., Bernales, J., Trusel, L. D., & Edwards, T. L. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-0889-9 · Cited by 486
The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1
Brady, E., Stevenson, S., Bailey, D., Liu, Z., Noone, D., Nusbaumer, J., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Tabor, C., Tomas, R., Wong, T., et al. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001663 · Cited by 313
Metadata
- Authors
- Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den Broeke, M. R., Chan, W. ‐., Hu, A., Beadling, R. L., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., & Yin, J.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2016-12-13
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 23
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2556251739
- Cited by
- 256
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 10.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1002/2016gl070457
- The paper
- Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den Broeke, M. R., Chan, W. ‐., Hu, A., Beadling, R. L., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., & Yin, J. (2016). Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070457
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
