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Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

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Drijfhout, Sybren, Bathiany, Sebastian, Beaulieu, Claudie, Brovkin, Victor, Claussen, Martin, Huntingford, Chris, Scheffer, Marten, Sgubin, Giovanni +1 more·2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1511451112PMC PMC4629371
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Abstract

Significance: One of the most concerning consequences of human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is the potential for rapid regional transitions in the climate system. Yet, despite much public awareness of how “tipping points” may be crossed, little information is available as to exactly what may be expected in the coming centuries. We assess all Earth System Models underpinning the recent 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and systematically search for evidence of abrupt changes. We do find abrupt changes in sea ice, oceanic flows, land ice, and terrestrial ecosystem response, although with little consistency among the models. A particularly large number is projected for warming levels below 2°. We discuss mechanisms and include methods to objectively classify abrupt climate change.

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  • A few global climate models indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C.

    “Nonetheless, a few global climate models3,14,71–74 indicate a broad range for a potential critical threshold in global warming between 2 and 6 °C (Fig. 3a).”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [71]

    The Discussion reports modelled abrupt regional shifts after temperature thresholds, so the paper supports the general idea that climate models indicate potential thresholds. It does not identify a critical global-warming threshold between 2 and 6 °C: 18 of 37 forced shifts occur below 2 °C, and the paper finds no compelling general relationship between the number of shifts and warming level. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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Authors
Drijfhout, S., Bathiany, S., Beaulieu, C., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Huntingford, C., Scheffer, M., Sgubin, G., & Swingedouw, D.
Affiliations
  • Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL)
  • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
  • National Oceanography Centre (GB)
  • Universität Hamburg (DE)
  • UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR)
  • Université de Bordeaux (FR)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2015-10-12
Volume
112
Issue
43
Pages
E5777-86
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1511451112
PMC
PMC4629371
OpenAlex
W1919925737
Cited by
332
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 21 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 15
FWCI
11.99
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
  • MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
  • Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F005997/1, NE/H000224/1, NE/I006702/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Keywords
abrupt climate change, tipping points, IPCC AR6, ocean circulation collapse, RCP8.5, radiative forcing

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