Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing
Open accessAbstract
New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well‐mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m −2 to 0.61 W m −2 ) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO 2 and N 2 O; for N 2 O forcing, the CO 2 overlap can be as important as the CH 4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO 2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO 2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.
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The NOx treatment in Lee et al. (2009) did not include the negative forcing contributions of the long-term O3 decrease or the SWV decrease, the updated treatment of CH4 of Etminan et al. (2016), nor an equilibrium-to-transient correction.
“The NOx treatment in Lee et al. (2009) did not include the negative forcing contributions of the long-term O3 decrease or the SWV decrease, the updated treatment of CH4 of Etminan et al. (2016), nor an equilibrium-to-transient correction.”
From The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018 (2021) · cites this paper as Etminan et al., 2016
The inclusion of shortwave forcing in the simplified expression increases CH4 RF from aviation NOx emissions by 23%.
“The inclusion of shortwave forcing in the simplified expression increases CH4 RF from aviation NOx emissions by 23% (based on MOZART-3 CTM runs driven for all the aircraft emission inventories represented in the model ensemble) (Table D.1).”
From The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018 (2021) · cites this paper as Etminan et al., 2016
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The HITRAN2016 molecular spectroscopic database
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“The simplified formula results by Etminan et al. (2016) are shown as orange lines.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018
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- Authors
- Etminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., & Shine, K. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Reading (GB)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Shine, K. P.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2016-12-27
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 24
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2564065614
- Cited by
- 1,027
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 100 · 2025: 118 · 2024: 155 · 2023: 117 · 2022: 148 · 2021: 137 · 2020: 118 · 2019: 70 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 33.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance (225814)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- radiative forcing, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases, shortwave forcing, global warming potential, RCP8.5, climate change projections
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