The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A new study provided projections of future UV-radiation for cloud-free conditions based on total column ozone and aerosol optical depth data from six CMIP6 models following four SSP scenarios, which supersede the RCP scenarios.
“A new study [9] provided projections of future UV-radiation for cloud-free conditions based on total column ozone and aerosol optical depth data from six CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models following four Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios1 [10], which supersede the RCP scenarios.”
Cites
Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis
Houghton, J., Ding, Y., Griggs, D., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. V. D., Dai, X., Maskell, K., & Johnson, C. (2001) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20033020 · Cited by 14,162 · cited 4× · see citing works
“On top of this, increased CH4 emissions are modelled to affect (alongside several other reactive gas emissions like CO, NMVOC, and NOx) tropospheric OH concentrations (as described for our modelling framework in Meinshausen et al., 2011a; based on Ehhalt et al., 2001).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialAn Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…periodically undertakes large model intercomparison exercises with the latest and most sophisticated set of climate models, to gain a better understanding of the response of the climate system to a range of potential emission or concentration scenarios (Taylor et al., 2012; Meehl et al., 2007).”
BackgroundEyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 · Cited by 11,981 · see citing works
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241 · see citing works
Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., & Pongratz, J. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.018 · Cited by 4,634 · cited 4× · see citing works
“Deep thanks goes to Christopher Holmes, who helped tremendously in providing data and code to calibrate MAGICC to abundance projections presented in Prather et al. (2012) and Holmes et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialThe RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Calvin, K., Daniel, J., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z · Cited by 3,621 · cited 9× · see citing works
“11c), and that difference is even more pronounced by 2300 due to the different extension principles followed for RCP extensions (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and those for SSPs (Sect.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationClimate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., et al. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3800.1 · Cited by 2,902 · see citing works
Self-citationTHE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research
Meehl, G., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., Mcavaney, B., Mitchell, J., Stouffer, R., & Taylor, K. E. (2007) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-88-9-1383 · Cited by 2,831 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…periodically undertakes large model intercomparison exercises with the latest and most sophisticated set of climate models, to gain a better understanding of the response of the climate system to a range of potential emission or concentration scenarios (Taylor et al., 2012; Meehl et al., 2007).”
BackgroundThe Global Methane Budget 2000–2017
Saunois, M., Stavert, A. R., Poulter, B., Bousquet, P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Raymond, P. A., Dlugokencky, E. J., Houweling, S., Patra, P. K., et al. (2019) · doi:10.5194/essd-2019-128 · Cited by 2,760 · see citing works
Self-citationHoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., et al. (2018) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018 · Cited by 2,203 · see citing works
Self-citationUncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006548 · Cited by 2,040 · see citing works
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f · Cited by 1,525 · cited 3× · see citing works
“We did not assume permanent net-negative CO2 emissions to maintain proximity to the original scenario design in the light of biophysical and economic limits of negative emissions, as well as potential side effects (Fuss et al., 2018; Smith et al., 2016). For all scenarios with net negative fossil fuel extensions, we i…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationBiophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2870 · Cited by 1,440 · see citing works
Self-citation(2019) · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019 · Cited by 1,093 · see citing works
Self-citationUncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
Friedlingstein, P., Meinshausen, M. A., Arora, V. K., JONES, C. D., Anav, A., Liddicoat, S. K., & Knutti, R. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00579.1 · Cited by 1,075 · cited 2× · see citing works
“The calibrated carbon cycle of MAGICC has previously been shown to reflect the CMIP5 ESM response range well (Friedlingstein et al., 2014).”
MethodSelf-citationEtminan, M., Myhre, G., Highwood, E. J., & Shine, K. P. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl071930 · Cited by 1,027 · cited 7× · see citing works
“The simplified formula results by Etminan et al. (2016) are shown as orange lines.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMeinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876 · see citing works
Self-citationAtmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
Keeling, C. D., Bacastow, R. B., Bainbridge, A. E., Ekdahl, C. A., Guenther, P. R., Waterman, L. S., & Chin, J. F. S. (1976) · Tellus · doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x · Cited by 794 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Back then in 1992, CO2 concentrations were at 356 ppm (Keeling et al., 1976; Keeling and Whorf, 2004).”
BackgroundAtmospheric CO 2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network
Keeling, C. D., & Whorf, T. (1994) · Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Datasets · doi:10.3334/cdiac/atg.012 · Cited by 753 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Back then in 1992, CO2 concentrations were at 356 ppm (Keeling et al., 1976; Keeling and Whorf, 2004).”
BackgroundHistorical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)
Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D., Fraser, P., Montzka, S., Rayner, P., Trudinger, C., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017 · Cited by 590 · see citing works
Self-citationPrather, M., Holmes, C., & Hsu, J. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl051440 · Cited by 588 · cited 6× · see citing works
“Prather et al. (2012) suggested that the RCP projections for N2O concentrations performed with MAGICC6 were somewhat too low for the lower RCP2.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialLawrence, D. M., HURTT, G. C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V. A., Calvin, K., Jones, A. D., JONES, C. D., Lawrence, P., de Noblet‐Ducoudré, N., Pongratz, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016 · Cited by 568 · see citing works
CO2-forced climate thresholds during the Phanerozoic
Royer, D. (2006) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.gca.2005.11.031 · Cited by 536 · cited 1× · see citing works
“4 in Royer, 2006) – i.e. before the current Antarctic and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets formed.”
BackgroundRising atmospheric methane: 2007–2014 growth and isotopic shift
Nisbet, E. G., Dlugokencky, E. J., Manning, M., Lowry, D. C., Fisher, R., France, J. L., Michel, S., Miller, J. B., White, J. W. C., Vaughn, B. H., et al. (2016) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2016gb005406 · Cited by 517 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Also, we updated the partial soil-related lifetime of CH4 (150 years rather than 160 years), following Prather et al. (2012). The net effect of the newly calibrated MAGICC is that Holmes et al.”
MethodThe importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate
Velders, G., Andersen, S., Daniel, J., Fahey, D., & Mcfarland, M. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.0610328104 · Cited by 515 · cited 2× · see citing works
“For example, some of the scenarios could include ODS emission futures that reflect lower or even noncompliance with the Montreal Protocol to allow studies on the “world avoided” (Morgenstern et al., 2008; Velders et al., 2007).”
BackgroundSelf-citationA 21st-century shift from fossil-fuel to biogenic methane emissions indicated by 13 CH 4
Schaefer, H., Fletcher, S. E. M., Veidt, C., Lassey, K. R., Brailsford, G., Bromley, T. M., Dlugokencky, E. J., Michel, S., Miller, J. B., Levin, I., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad2705 · Cited by 512 · cited 2× · see citing works
“…(Rigby et al., 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006, but large uncertainties remain, particularly related to natural wetland…”
BackgroundLimiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S. D., & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1674 · Cited by 485 · cited 2× · see citing works
“, 2018) and the likely demise of coral reefs (Frieler et al., 2013).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationEnhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems
Forkel, M., Carvalhais, N., Rödenbeck, C., Keeling, R., Heimann, M., Thonicke, K., Zaehle, S., & Reichstein, M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aac4971 · Cited by 465 · see citing works
Solar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1)Preprint
Matthes, K., Funke, B., Anderson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M., de Wit, T. D., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., et al. (2016) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-91 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO 2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960
Graven, H., Keeling, R. F., Piper, S. C., Patra, P. K., Stephens, B. B., Wofsy, S. C., Welp, L. R., Sweeney, C., Tans, P. P., Kelley, J. J., et al. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1239207 · Cited by 415 · see citing works
JONES, C. D., Arora, V. K., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V. A., Dunne, J. P. P., Graven, H., Hoffman, F. M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016 · Cited by 397 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The climate models that have this ability to project CO2 concentrations from emissions are often referred to as Earth system models (ESMs) (Lawrence et al., 2016; Jones et al., 2016).”
BackgroundAn unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11
Montzka, S., Dutton, G., Yu, P., Ray, E., Portmann, R., Daniel, J., Kuijpers, L., Hall, B., Mondeel, D., Siso, C., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2 · Cited by 360 · cited 13× · see citing works
“As for the historical concentrations, we provide 43 greenhouse gas future concentration projections, namely CO2, CH4, N2O, 17 ozone-depleting substances (namely CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114, CFC-115, HCFC-22, HCFC141b, HCFC-142b, CH3CCl3, CCl4, CH3Cl, CH2Cl2, CHCl3, CH3Br, Halon-1211, Halon-1301, and Halon-2402) a…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationRole of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth
Rigby, M., Montzka, S., Prinn, R. G., White, J. W. C., Young, D., O'Doherty, S., Lunt, M., Ganesan, A., Manning, A. J., Simmonds, P., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616426114 · Cited by 355 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Available literature suggests that changes in natural and anthropogenic sources and OH-related sinks are involved (Rigby et al., 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the…”
BackgroundSelf-citationAtmospheric emissions and trends of nitrous oxide deduced from 10 years of ALE–GAGE data
Prinn, R., Cunnold, D., Rasmussen, R., Simmonds, P., Alyea, F., Crawford, A., Fraser, P., & Rosen, R. (1990) · doi:10.1029/jd095id11p18369 · Cited by 337
Prinn, R., Weiss, R., Arduini, J., Arnold, T., DeWitt, H., Fraser, P., Ganesan, A., Gasore, J., Harth, C., Hermansen, O., et al. (2018) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-10-985-2018 · Cited by 321 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…being available for 2015, 2016, and 2017, the previously used observational data sources from the AGAGE and NOAA networks (Dlugokencky, 2015a, b; Prinn et al., 2018), including multiple NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory (https://www. esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/, last access: 14 July 2020) flask…”
MethodSelf-citationAerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6
Collins, W., Lamarque, J., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Eyring, V., Hegglin, M., Maycock, A., Myhre, G., Prather, M., Shindell, D., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017 · Cited by 319 · cited 7× · see citing works
“, 2016) and AerChemMIP (Collins et al., 2017), that require concentration-driven runs (see search.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationButchart, N., & Scaife, A. A. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35071047 · Cited by 299 · cited 6× · see citing works
“The Brewer– Dobson circulation is assumed to increase by 15 % per degree of warming beyond 1980, derived from Butchart and Scaife’s finding of an approximately 3 % increase per decade (Butchart and Scaife, 2001) and assuming a 0.2 C warming per decade (Meinshausen et al., 2011a). Calibrating our gas cycle models to th…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialThe PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series
Gütschow, J., Jeffery, M. L., Gieseke, R., Gebel, R., Stevens, D., Krapp, M., & Rocha, M. (2016) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-8-571-2016 · Cited by 297 · cited 2× · see citing works
“To set up this calibration, we complement RCP emission pathways by historical N2O emissions from PRIMAP-hist (Gütschow et al., 2016).”
MethodWorden, J., Bloom, A., Pandey, S., Jiang, Z., Worden, H., Walker, T., Houweling, S., & Röckmann, T. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02246-0 · Cited by 249 · cited 2× · see citing works
“…changes in natural and anthropogenic sources and OH-related sinks are involved (Rigby et al., 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006,…”
BackgroundUnderstanding rapid adjustments to diverse forcing agents
Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Soden, B. J., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., et al. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079826 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Holmes, C. D., Prather, M. J., Søvde, O. A., & Myhre, G. (2013) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-13-285-2013 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations
Rigby, M., Park, S., Saito, T., Western, L., Redington, A., Fang, X., Henne, S., Manning, A., Prinn, R. G., Dutton, G., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4 · Cited by 220 · cited 5× · see citing works
“…it was also concluded that the additional CFC-11 emissions – roughly a 25 % increase since 2012 – originate in part from the eastern Asian region (Rigby et al., 2019; Montzka et al., 2018), and an updated study has identified that about half of the global increase can be attributed to two…”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming
von Deimling, T. S., Meinshausen, M. A., Levermann, A., Huber, V., Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., & Brovkin, V. A. (2012) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-9-649-2012 · Cited by 192 · cited 2× · see citing works
“…used for this study (version 7.0) is calibrated to closely represent C4MIP carbon cycle responses and includes a permafrost module (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2012) and updated radiative forcing and non-CO2 gas cycle parameterizations (in particular for CH4 and N2O) that represent recent…”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationStevens, B., Fiedler, S., Kinne, S., Peters, K., Rast, S., Müsse, J., Smith, S. J., & Mauritsen, T. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017 · Cited by 188 · cited 2× · see citing works
“…in terms of radiative forcing, there is a wide range of other forcers, including anthropogenic aerosols (Hoesly et al., 2018), land use patterns, aerosol optical properties (Stevens et al., 2017), and natural forcers like solar (Matthes et al., 2017) and volcanic effects (Toohey et al., 2016).”
BackgroundSelf-citationEfficiency of short-lived halogens at influencing climate through depletion of stratospheric ozone
Hossaini, R., Chipperfield, M., Montzka, S., Rap, A., Dhomse, S., & Feng, W. (2015) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2363 · Cited by 187 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The similarly short-lived methylene chloride (CH2Cl2) also had almost stagnant atmospheric concentrations around the year 2000, but high growth has been observed in subsequent years, almost doubling atmospheric global-average concentrations from around 20 to 40 ppt by 2017 (Hossaini et al., 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationCommitted sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
Mengel, M., Nauels, A., Rogelj, J., & Schleussner, C. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 · Cited by 179 · cited 2× · see citing works
“5 C of warming could come with multi-metre sea level rise by 2300 (Mengel et al., 2018) and the likely demise of coral reefs (Frieler et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationMeinshausen, M. A., Wigley, T. M. L., & Raper, S. C. B. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011 · Cited by 179 · cited 9× · see citing works
“11c), and that difference is even more pronounced by 2300 due to the different extension principles followed for RCP extensions (Meinshausen et al., 2011b) and those for SSPs (Sect.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationDeimling, T. S. V., Grosse, G., Strauss, J., Schirrmeister, L., Morgenstern, A., Schaphoff, S., Meinshausen, M., & Boike, J. (2014) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Self-citationBuizert, C., Martinerie, P., Petrenko, V. V., Severinghaus, J. P., Trudinger, C. M., Witrant, E., Rosén, J., Orsi, A., Rubino, M., Etheridge, D. M., et al. (2012) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-12-4259-2012 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Cunnold, D., Steele, L., Fraser, P., Simmonds, P., Prinn, R., Weiss, R., Porter, L. W., O'Doherty, S., Langenfelds, R., Krummel, P., et al. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd001226 · Cited by 164 · cited 1× · see citing works
“mop”) (Cunnold et al., 2002) & NOAA ESRL monthly station data (Dlugokencky et al., 2015a); Version 2017-0728; Calculated based on observational data source as described in Meinshausen et al. (2017). Mean over 1985–2013 period.”
MethodSelf-citationVelders, G., Fahey, D., Daniel, J., Andersen, S., & Mcfarland, M. (2015) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.071 · Cited by 161 · cited 6× · see citing works
“For the emissions of fluorinated gases that are listed in the Kyoto Protocol and considered here (PFCs, HFCs, and SF6), namely C2F6, CF4, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-227ea, HFC-23, HFC-245fa, HFC-43-10mee, and SF6, MAGICC7 takes the global and aggregated SSP emissions of the gas baskets as inputs, as provided by…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationDirect human influence on atmospheric CO2 seasonality from increased cropland productivity
Gray, J., Frolking, S., Kort, E. A., Ray, D. K., Kucharik, C. J., Ramankutty, N., & Friedl, M. A. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13957 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Disentangling the effects of CO 2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation
Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M. A., Shindell, D. T., Hare, B., Klimont, Z., Velders, G. J. M., Amann, M. C., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1415631111 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Self-citationEasy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations
Toohey, M., Stevens, B., Schmidt, H., & Timmreck, C. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016 · Cited by 132 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…in terms of radiative forcing, there is a wide range of other forcers, including anthropogenic aerosols (Hoesly et al., 2018), land use patterns, aerosol optical properties (Stevens et al., 2017), and natural forcers like solar (Matthes et al., 2017) and volcanic effects (Toohey et al., 2016).”
BackgroundRapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China
Fang, X., Park, S., Saito, T., Tunnicliffe, R., Ganesan, A., Rigby, M., Li, S.-L., Yokouchi, Y., Fraser, P., Harth, C., et al. (2018) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Self-citationRay, E., Moore, F., Elkins, J. W., Rosenlof, K., Laube, J., Röckmann, T., Marsh, D., & Andrews, A. (2017) · doi:10.1002/2016jd026198 · Cited by 117
Perverse incentives under the CDM: an evaluation of HFC-23 destruction projects
Schneider, L. (2011) · doi:10.3763/cpol.2010.0096 · Cited by 115 · cited 4×
“Here, we include a representation of permafrost feedbacks based on the MAGICC permafrost (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2012), leading to additional cumulative CO2 emissions of 25 to 88 GtC by 2100, 42 to 378 GtC by 2200, and 51 to 542 GtC by 2300 for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) scenario, respectivel…”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialMontzka, S., Mcfarland, M., Andersen, S., Miller, B., Fahey, D., Hall, B., Hu, L., Siso, C., & Elkins, J. (2015) · Journal of Physical Chemistry A · doi:10.1021/jp5097376 · Cited by 113 · cited 3×
“This study’s northern hemispheric averages (orange lines), southern hemispheric averages (blue lines), and global averages (black lines) are shown in comparison with recent measurements of the NOAA and/or AGAGE networks (grey dots), the global averages derived by Montzka et al. (2018), and the projections by Velders a…”
ResultInfluentialSelf-citationThe World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol
Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., Hurwitz, M., O'Connor, F., Bushell, A., Johnson, C. E., & Pyle, J. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl034590 · Cited by 111 · cited 1× · see citing works
“For example, some of the scenarios could include ODS emission futures that reflect lower or even noncompliance with the Montreal Protocol to allow studies on the “world avoided” (Morgenstern et al., 2008; Velders et al., 2007).”
BackgroundBeckley, B., Zelensky, N., Holmes, S., Lemoine, F., Ray, R., Mitchum, G., Desai, S., & Brown, S. (2010) · Marine Geodesy · doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491029 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Impact of short-lived non-CO 2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. A., Schaeffer, M., Knutti, R., & Riahi, K. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 · Cited by 90 · cited 1× · see citing works
“(i) Firstly, discussions about the benefit of the mitigation of short-lived forcers often accounts for CH4 as a short-lived forcer, which usually contributes most of the climate benefits of any shortlived forcer mitigation strategy (Rogelj et al., 2015, 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500Preprint
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Lewis, J., Gidden, M., Vogel, E., Freund, M. B., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., et al. (2019) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-222 · Cited by 77 · cited 3× · see citing works
“, 2019; Montzka et al., 2018), and an updated study has identified that about half of the global increase can be attributed to two provinces in eastern China (Rigby et al., 2019). Although less pronounced, CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations have also not declined as expected since 2013, although for neither of these ga…”
ResultInfluentialSelf-citationPerverse effects of carbon markets on HFC-23 and SF6 abatement projects in Russia
Schneider, L., & Kollmuss, A. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2772 · Cited by 74 · cited 1× · see citing works
“It has been shown that so-called “perverse incentives” likely resulted in additional production – in order to broaden the magnitude of claimable abatement credits (Schneider and Kollmuss, 2015).”
BackgroundVelders, G., & Daniel, J. (2013) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014 · Cited by 62 · cited 15× · see citing works
“With the 2016 Kigali Amendment, however, a select number of HFCs have been included in the Montreal Protocol and GWPweighted emissions of these particular HFCs will have to be phased-down globally in coming decades.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationVollmer, M., Young, D., Trudinger, C., Mühle, J., Henne, S., Rigby, M., Park, S., Li, S.-L., Guillevic, M., Mitrevski, B., et al. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-18-979-2018 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationWelp, L., Patra, P., Rödenbeck, C., Nemani, R., Bi, J., Piper, S., & Keeling, R. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-9047-2016 · Cited by 46 · cited 3× · see citing works
“, 2017), for example reduced biomass burning emissions (Worden et al., 2017) or reduced thermogenic fossilfuel-related emissions (Schaefer et al., 2016) to explain the plateau of concentrations until 2006, but large uncertainties remain, particularly related to natural wetland and inland water sources (Saunois et al.,…”
BackgroundInfluentialGidden, M., Fujimori, S., van den Berg, M., Klein, D., Smith, S. J., van Vuuren, D., & Riahi, K. (2018) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002 · Cited by 44 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Land-use-related CH4 and fossil and industrial CO2 and CH4 emissions were already harmonized with historical emissions and also regionally available (Gidden et al., 2019, 2018). N2O emissions were only available as a global total from the SSP database based on PRIMAP (Gütschow et al., 2016), which is why we assume to…”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
11 of the 78 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931 · see citing works
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
Rennert, K., Errickson, F., Prest, B. C., Rennels, L., Newell, R. G., Pizer, W., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R., Parthum, B., et al. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9 · Cited by 1,067 · see citing works
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897 · see citing works
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A., Elliott, J., Balkovič, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I. T., Folberth, C., Franke, J., et al. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y · Cited by 903 · see citing works
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., et al. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021 · Cited by 736 · see citing works
“11 in Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationAbram, N., Henley, B., Gupta, A. S., Lippmann, T., Clarke, H., Dowdy, A., Sharples, J., Nolan, R., Zhang, T.-R., Wooster, M., et al. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8 · Cited by 673 · see citing works
Global Methane Budget 2000–2020
Saunois, M., Martinez, A., Poulter, B., Zhang, Z., Raymond, P. A., Regnier, P. A. G., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Patra, P. K., Bousquet, P., et al. (2025) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025 · Cited by 495 · see citing works
Self-citationKikstra, J., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lewis, J., Lamboll, R., Byers, E., Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M., Gidden, M., Rogelj, J., et al. (2022) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022 · Cited by 409 · see citing works
“A full description of MAGICC can be found in Meinshausen et al. (2011b), with updates as described in Meinshausen et al. (2020) and Nicholls et al. (2022a, 2021).”
MethodSelf-citationForster, P. M., Smith, C. J., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M. D., et al. (2023) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023 · Cited by 366 · see citing works
CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2)
Lovato, T., Peano, D., Butenschön, M., Materia, S., Iovino, D., Scoccimarro, E., Fogli, P., Cherchi, A., Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002814 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
“At the end of the historical simulation in year 2014, the scenario simulations are initiated prescribing the pertaining forcing derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
MethodChanges in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
Li, C., Zwiers, F., Zhang, X.-B., Li, G.-L., Sun, Y., & Wehner, M. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1013.1 · Cited by 309 · see citing works
Resilience of renewable power systems under climate risks
Xu, L., Feng, K.-R., Lin, N., Perera, A., Poor, H., Xie, L., Ji, C.-Y., Sun, X., Guo, Q.-L., & O'Malley, M. (2024) · Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering · doi:10.1038/s44287-023-00003-8 · Cited by 303 · see citing works
Forster, P. M. D. F., Smith, C., Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Hall, B. D., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N. P., et al. (2024) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024 · Cited by 349 · see citing works
Self-citationTropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations
Griffiths, P. T., Murray, L. T., Zeng, G., Shin, Y. M., Abraham, N. L., Archibald, A. T., Deushi, M., Emmons, L. K., Galbally, I. E., Hassler, B., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Global nitrous oxide budget (1980–2020)
Tian, H., Pan, N., Thompson, R. L., Canadell, J. G., Suntharalingam, P., Regnier, P. A. G., Davidson, E. A., Prather, M. J., Ciais, P., Muntean, M., et al. (2024) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-16-2543-2024 · Cited by 324 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests
del Castillo, E. M., Zang, C. S., Buras, A., Hacket-Pain, A., Esper, J., Serrano-Notivoli, R., Hartl, C., Weigel, R. F. B., Klesse, S., de Dios, V. R., et al. (2022) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-022-03107-3 · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Xu, H., Yue, C., Zhang, Y., Liu, D., & Piao, S. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.2304988120 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system
Moore, F., Lacasse, K., Mach, K., Shin, Y., Gross, L., & Beckage, B. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Neale, R. E., Barnes, P. W., Robson, T. M., Neale, P. J., Williamson, C. E., Zepp, R. G., Wilson, S. R., Madronich, S., Andrady, A. L., Heikkilä, A. M., et al. (2021) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-020-00001-x · Cited by 225 · see citing works
Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Byrne, B., Liu, J.-J., Bowman, K., Pascolini-Campbell, M., Chatterjee, A., Pandey, S., Miyazaki, K., van der Werf, G. R., Wunch, D., Wennberg, P., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07878-z · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Kikstra, J., Byers, E., & Rogelj, J. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Self-citationCheng, W., Dan, L., Deng, X.-Z., Feng, J.-M., Wang, Y.-L., Peng, J.-B., Tian, J., Qi, W., Liu, Z., Zheng, X., et al. (2022) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01196-7 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
Implementation of the CMIP6 Forcing Data in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Model
Lurton, T., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Contoux, C., Cozic, A., et al. (2020) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001940 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
“The differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 for CO2, CH4, and N2O are negligible for the historical period but are noticeable for the scenario levels that are common, for example, the RCP85 (Pathway 8.5) and SSP585 (Pathway 5-8.5) scenarios (see Figures 1a–1c) (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialUnintended consequences of combating desertification in China
Wang, X., Ge, Q., Geng, X., Wang, Z.-S., Gao, L., Bryan, B. A., Chen, S., Su, Y., Cai, D., Ye, J., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36835-z · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulationsPreprint
Griffiths, P. T., Murray, L., Zeng, G., Shin, Y. M., Abraham, N. L., Archibald, A., Deushi, M., Emmons, L., Galbally, I., Hassler, B., et al. (2020) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2019-1216 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
“The prescribed methane lower boundary concentrations are described in Meinshausen et al. (2020).”
BackgroundFuture emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat
Bosson, J. B., Huss, M., Cauvy-Fraunié, S., Clément, J. C., Costes, G., Fischer, M., Poulenard, J., & Arthaud, F. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06302-2 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Simulations for CMIP6 With the AWI Climate Model AWI‐CM‐1‐1
Semmler, T., Danilov, S. D., Gierz, P., Goessling, H., Hegewald, J., Hinrichs, C., Koldunov, N., Khosravi, N., Mu, L., Rackow, T., et al. (2020) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms002009 · Cited by 243 · see citing works
Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming
Li, L., Zhang, Y., Zhou, T., Wang, K., Wang, C., Wang, T., Yuan, L., An, K., Zhou, C., & Lü, G. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Vegetation-based climate mitigation in a warmer and greener World
Alkama, R., Forzieri, G., Duveiller, G., Grassi, G., Liang, S., & Cescatti, A. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28305-9 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
Keeble, J., Hassler, B., Banerjee, A., Checa-Garcia, R., Chiodo, G., Davis, S., Eyring, V., Griffiths, P. T., Morgenstern, O., Nowack, P., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Leach, N., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., & Allen, M. (2020) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
“1.0-beta (Meinshausen et al., 2020), highlighting any differences.”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationAsymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions
Zickfeld, K., Azevedo, D., Mathesius, S., & Matthews, H. D. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01061-2 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Gieseke, R., Dommenget, D., Dorheim, K., Fan, C.-S., Fuglestvedt, J., Gasser, T., Golüke, U., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Martine, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century
Scafetta, N. (2024) · Geoscience Frontiers · doi:10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101774 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
“5 requires a more plausible 602 ppm level by 2100 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundStratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions
Bernhard, G. H., Bais, A. F., Aucamp, P. J., Klekociuk, A. R., Liley, J. B., & McKenzie, R. L. (2023) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y · Cited by 138 · see citing works
“The models were run in the framework of CMIP610 simulations and follow a new set of future emissions scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP11) [55], which assume compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments.”
MethodOperationalizing the net-negative carbon economy
Bednar, J., Obersteiner, M. H., Baklanov, A., Thomson, M. J., Wagner, F., Geden, O., Allen, M. R., & Hall, J. W. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03723-9 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
Stokes, C., Abram, N., Bentley, M., Edwards, T., England, M., Foppert, A., Jamieson, S., Jones, R. S., King, M. A., Lenaerts, J., et al. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0 · Cited by 131
Barnes, P. W., Robson, T. M., Neale, P. J., Williamson, C. E., Zepp, R. G., Madronich, S., Wilson, S. R., Andrady, A. L., Heikkilä, A. M., Bernhard, G. H., et al. (2022) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-022-00176-5 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
“In addition to protecting the biosphere from harmful increases in UV radiation, the Montreal Protocol is helping to reduce global warming as many ODSs are also potent GHGs [61].”
InfluentialOpportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy
Matthews, H. D., Tokarska, K. B., Nicholls, Z., Rogelj, J., Canadell, J. G., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Forster, P. M. D. F., Gillett, N. P., Ilyina, T., et al. (2020) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change research and action must look beyond 2100
Lyon, C., Saupe, E. E., Smith, C., Hill, D. J., Beckerman, A. P., Stringer, L. C., Marchant, R., McKay, J., Burke, A. M., O’Higgins, P., et al. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15871 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
“However, no complex climate model results from CMIP5 or CMIP6 are available beyond 2300.”
BackgroundTemporary nature-based carbon removal can lower peak warming in a well-below 2 °C scenario
Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Dickau, M., MacIsaac, A., Mathesius, S., Nzotungicimpaye, C.-M., & Luers, A. L. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z · Cited by 121 · see citing works
“…succeed in lowering global radiative forcing to 1.9 W/m 2 at the year 2100; this scenario represents a highly ambitious mitigation scenario with peak CO 2 emissions at the year 2020 that decrease to net-zero at the year 2056 and then become net-negative throughout the remainder of the century 53 .”
BackgroundInfluentialHysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing
Kug, J., Oh, J., An, S., Yeh, S., Min, S.-K., Son, S., Kam, J., Ham, Y., & Shin, J.-W. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01211-6 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS‐E2.1
Nazarenko, L. S., Tausnev, N., Russell, G. L., Rind, D., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A., Bauer, S. E., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Ackerman, A. S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2021ms002871 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
“It is attributable to the interplay of both higher ERFs by 2100 and higher climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models (Meehl et al., 2020; Meinshausen et al., 2020; Nicholls et al., 2020; Seferian et al., 2020).”
InfluentialZanis, P., Akritidis, D., Turnock, S., Naik, V., Szopa, S., Georgoulias, A., Bauer, S., Deushi, M., Horowitz, L., Keeble, J., et al. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Sun, M., Li, X., Xu, H., Wang, K., Anniwaer, N., & Hong, S. (2023) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16998 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
“5 scenario corresponds to a very high level of carbon emissions (Cook et al., 2020 ; Meinshausen et al., 2020 ; O'Neill et al., 2016).”
BackgroundBrogli, R., Heim, C., Mensch, J., Sørland, S. L., & Schär, C. (2023) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-16-907-2023 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
A climate risk index for marine life
Boyce, D., Tittensor, D., Garilao, C., Henson, S., Kaschner, K., Kesner-Reyes, K., Pigot, A., Reyes, R. B., Reygondeau, G., Schleit, K., et al. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01437-y · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Martine, M., Mills, M., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., et al. (2021) · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-133 · Cited by 98
“3c), and the underlying difference in CO2 concentration, common to all models, as prescribed for the SSP scenarios in Meinshausen et al. (2020) (Fig.”
BackgroundSmall Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world
Vousdoukas, M. I., Athanasiou, P., Giardino, A., Mentaschi, L., Stocchino, A., Kopp, R. E., Menéndez, P., Beck, M. W., Ranasinghe, R., & Feyen, L. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01230-5 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
“…until mid-century, when they start to be reduced without reaching net-zero; high emissions (SSP3–7.0), with emissions rising constantly to almost double from current levels by the end of the century; and a high fossil-fuel development world throughout the twenty-first century (SSP5–8.5) 44 .”
InfluentialDesert ecosystems in China: Past, present, and future
Wang, X., Geng, X., Liu, B., Cai, D., Li, D.-F., Xiao, F., Zhu, B.-Q., Hua, T., Lu, R.-J., & Liu, F. (2022) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104206 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change
Lachs, L., Donner, S., Mumby, P., Bythell, J., Humanes, A., East, H., & Guest, J. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40601-6 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives
Schleussner, C., Ganti, G., Rogelj, J., & Gidden, M. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Self-citationDeng, Z., Javanroodi, K., Nik, V., & Chen, Y.-X. (2023) · Building Simulation · doi:10.1007/s12273-023-1032-2 · Cited by 87
Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming
Martinez‐Villalobos, C., Fu, D., Loikith, P. C., & Neelin, J. D. (2025) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01737-w · Cited by 100 · see citing works
“Despite using the SSP5–8.5 pathway, known as the most sensitive greenhouse scenario, there is little divergence between scenarios for the timespan of interest 58 .”
InfluentialPitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes
Brunner, L., & Aiko Voigt, A. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46349-x · Cited by 87 · see citing works
European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios
Farooq, Z., Sjödin, H., Semenza, J., Tozan, Y., Sewe, M. O., Wallin, J., & Rocklöv, J. (2023) · One Health · doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100509 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
Jenkins, S., Smith, C., Allen, M., & Grainger, R. (2023) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01568-2 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?
McKinnon, K. A., & Simpson, I. R. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl100380 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100
Jiang, L., Dunne, J. P. P., Carter, B. R., Tjiputra, J. F., Terhaar, J., Sharp, J. D., Olsen, A. S., Alin, S. R., Bakker, D. C. E., Feely, R. A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2022ms003563 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
“5 (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundHama, A. A., & Khwarahm, N. R. (2022) · Ecological Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101930 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes
Fabiano, F., Meccia, V., Davini, P., Ghinassi, P., & Corti, S. (2020) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-2020-37-supplement · Cited by 83
“SSP2–4.5 and SSP3–7.0 are intermediate scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialReactive halogens increase the global methane lifetime and radiative forcing in the 21st century
Li, Q.-Y., Fernández, R., Hossaini, R., Iglesias-Suarez, F., Cuevas, C., Apel, E., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J., & Saiz-Lopez, A. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30456-8 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., & Tjiputra, J. F. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Das, J., Velpuri, M., & Umamahesh, N. (2021) · Science of the Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150424 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks
Möller, T., Högner, A., Schleussner, C., Bien, S., Kitzmann, N. H., Lamboll, R., Rogelj, J., Donges, J. F., Rockström, J., & Wunderling, N. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
“Shaded areas represent the 95% con fi dence interval. implicitly via the assumptions of some of the scenarios used in this study (for instance SSP1 and SSP5 58,59 ).”
MethodHussain, S., Hussain, E., Saxena, P., Sharma, A., Thathola, P., & Sonwani, S. (2024) · Frontiers in Sustainable Cities · doi:10.3389/frsc.2023.1308684 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
van Noije, T., Bergman, T., Sager, P. L., O’Donnell, D., Makkonen, R., Ageitos, M. G., Döscher, R., Fladrich, U., von Hardenberg, J., Keskinen, J., et al. (2021) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. R., Dorheim, K., Gasser, T., Gieseke, R., Hope, A., Leach, N., McBride, L., et al. (2021) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001900 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Self-citationvan Noije, T., Bergman, T., Sager, P. L., O'Donnell, D., Makkonen, R., Ageitos, M. G., Döscher, R., Fladrich, U., von Hardenberg, J., Keskinen, J., et al. (2020) · doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-413 · Cited by 78
Dunne, J. P., Hewitt, H. T., Arblaster, J., Bonou, F., Boucher, O., Cavazos, T., Dingley, B., Durack, P., Hassler, B., Juckes, M., et al. (2025) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-18-6671-2025 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“2 et al., 2017; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Self-citationEvolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Álvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J.-B., Berends, C., Bernales, J., et al. (2024) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004561 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Costoya, X., deCastro, M., Carvalho, D., & Gómez-Gesteira, M. (2022) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.113101 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections
Fallah, B., Didovets, I., Rostami, M., & Hamidi, M. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8519 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
“Sustain-able future climate scenarios limit global warming under 2 C at the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
BackgroundA global atlas of marine antibiotic resistance genes and their expression.
Xu, N., Qiu, D., Zhang, Z.-Y., Wang, Y., Chen, B.-A., Zhang, Q., Wang, T., Hong, W., Zhou, N., Peñuelas, J., et al. (2023) · Water Research · doi:10.1016/j.watres.2023.120488 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output
Olonscheck, D., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Milinski, S., Beobide‐Arsuaga, G., Baehr, J., Fröb, F., Ilyina, T., Kadow, C., Krieger, D., Li, H., et al. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2023ms003790 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
“The globally integrated CO 2 flux into the ocean is larger in the mid and high-end SSP than in the respective RCP scenarios (Figure 1e), likely caused by the stronger prescribed atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the SSP than respective RCP scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2011, 2020).”
BackgroundKoven, C., Arora, V., Cadule, P., Fisher, R., Jones, C. D., Lawrence, D., Lewis, J., Lindsay, K., Mathesius, S., Meinshausen, M., et al. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-885-2022 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
“All models were forced with specified atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (not greenhouse gas emissions) (Meinshausen et al., 2020), and land use change forcings (Ma et al.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationSimpson, I. R., Rosenbloom, N. A., Danabasoglu, G., Deser, C., Yeager, S. G., McCluskey, C. S., Yamaguchi, R., Lamarque, J., Tilmes, S., Mills, M. J., et al. (2023) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0666.1 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Lee, W. R., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., & MacMartin, D. G. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-663-2023 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Global Burden of Disease from Environmental Factors
Clark, S. N., Anenberg, S. C., & Brauer, M. D. (2024) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071823-105338 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
“In this context, a reference temperature scenario is compared against a more optimistic scenario of emissions reductions based on RCPs and SSPs.”
InfluentialAtmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling
Atwood, T., Romanou, A., DeVries, T., Lerner, P., Mayorga, J. S., Bradley, D., Cabral, R., Schmidt, G. A., & Sala, E. (2024) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1125137 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“5, a mid-range shared socioeconomic pathway scenario, of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O ’ Neill et al., 2016; Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
Majdi, F., Hosseini, S. A., Karbalaee, A., Kaseri, M., & Marjanian, S. (2022) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03916-2 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Methane removal and the proportional reductions in surface temperature and ozone
Abernethy, S., O’Connor, F. M., JONES, C. D., & Jackson, R. B. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0104 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
“6 (‘Sustainability’, a low-emissions scenario) [31].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialTransition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake
Chen, Z., Wang, W., Forzieri, G., & Cescatti, A. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45957-x · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“5 scenario because C4MIP simulations are available only for the highest emission trajectory (CO 2 concentration is projected to reach 1135ppm in 2100 64 ).”
BackgroundThe need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7
Sanderson, B., Booth, B. B. B., Dunne, J., Eyring, V., Fisher, R. A., Friedlingstein, P., Gidden, M., Hajima, T., Jones, C. D., Jones, C. G., et al. (2024) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“Emissions-driven simulations to date in CMIP have been highly idealized (e.g., ZECMIP; Jones et al., 2019). emissions-driven focus allows coupled system processes to be represented in policy-relevant scenarios, but this requires a refinement in the way that scenarios have traditionally been framed and categorized (O’Ne…”
InfluentialSelf-citationDurability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals
Brunner, C., Hausfather, Z., & Knutti, R. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01808-7 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“See Meinshausen et al. 37 for more details about the emissions rates and the underlying methodology and assumptions.”
Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity
Smith, C. J., Harris, G., Palmer, M., Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J., Myhre, G., Schulz, M., Golaz, J., Ringer, M., Storelvmo, T., et al. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd033622 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
CMIP6 precipitation and temperature projections for Chile
Salazar, Á., Thatcher, M., Goubanova, K., Bernal, P. A., Gutiérrez, J. R., & Squeo, F. A. (2023) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-023-07034-9 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“It presents a new framework of socioeconomic scenarios, named Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that are combined with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of CMIP5 (Eyring et al. 2016; Meinshausen et al. 2020).”
Siabi, E. K., Awafo, E., Kabo-bah, A., Derkyi, N., Akpoti, K., Mortey, E., & Yazdanie, M. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4225254 · Cited by 66
Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia
Furian, W., Maussion, F., & Schneider, C. (2022) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2022.821798 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
“We use for every GCM different climate scenarios, each following a different development path of human society on the basis of the SSP scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
MethodAtmospheric methane underestimated in future climate projections
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., & Brovkin, V. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1814 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation
Charlesworth, E. J., Plöger, F., Birner, T., Baikhadzhaev, R., Ábalos, M., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Dennison, F. W., Jöckel, P., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39559-2 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation
Brazzola, N., Patt, A., & Wohland, J. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01404-7 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Mequanint, F., Gayler, S., Weber, T., Tesfaye, K., & Streck, T. (2023) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-023-02337-2 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Mathur, M., Mathur, P., & Purohit, H. (2023) · Ecological Processes · doi:10.1186/s13717-023-00423-2 · Cited by 63
Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models
Terhaar, J., Frölicher, T. L., & Joos, F. (2022) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Climate change knowledge, attitude and perception of undergraduate students in Ghana
Ofori, B. Y., Ameade, E. P. K., Ohemeng, F., Musah, Y., Quartey, J., & Owusu, E. H. (2023) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000215 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
“…by natural events such as the Earth’s orbit, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids and asteroids reaching the Earth’s surface [4, 5], accumulating evidence suggests that 21 st century climate change is caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere due to human activities [6].”
BackgroundOn the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Consumptions: A Meta-Analysis
Campagna, L., & Fiorito, F. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15010354 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Liddicoat, S., Wiltshire, A., Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Lawrence, D., Pongratz, J., Schwinger, J., et al. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0991.1 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“For ScenarioMIP, the emissions of different greenhouse gases from the IAMs were converted into their respective concentrations using version 7.0 of MAGICC, a carbon cycle–climate model of intermediate complexity (Meinshausen et al. 2020, 2011).”
MethodInfluentialVisioni, D., Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Haywood, J., Boucher, O., Lawrence, M., Irvine, P., Niemeier, U., Xia, L., et al. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
- Authors
- Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., & Wang, R. H. J.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Empa (CH)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Meinshausen, Malte
- Gidden, Matthew J.
- Vogel, Elisabeth
- Beyerle, Urs
- Gessner, Claudia
- Nauels, Alexander
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Krummel, Paul B.
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Montzka, Stephen A.
- Rayner, Peter J.
- Reimann, Stefan
- Smith, Steven J.
- Velders, Guus J. M.
- Vollmer, Martin K.
- Wang, Ray H. J.
- ORCID
- Meinshausen, Malte
- Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.
- Lewis, Jared
- Gidden, Matthew J.
- Vogel, Elisabeth
- Freund, Mandy
- Beyerle, Urs
- Gessner, Claudia
- Nauels, Alexander
- Bauer, Nico
- Canadell, Josep G.
- Daniel, John S.
- John, Andrew
- Krummel, Paul B.
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Montzka, Stephen A.
- Rayner, Peter J.
- Reimann, Stefan
- Smith, Steven J.
- van den Berg, Marten
- Velders, Guus J. M.
- Vollmer, Martin K.
- Wang, Ray H. J.
- Venue
- Geoscientific Model Development
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-08-13
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 3571-3605
- ISSN
- 1991-959X (ISSN-L)
- 1991-9603
- OpenAlex
- W3048501727
- Cited by
- 1,815
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 288 · 2025: 412 · 2024: 396 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 241 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 33 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 66.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Geoscientific model development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- Australian Research Council (FT130100809)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, greenhouse gas concentrations, long-lived greenhouse gases, radiative forcing, fossil fuel emissions, land use change emissions, net-negative emissions, non-CO2 emissions, surface air temperature, RCP scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
