Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World
Open accessAbstract
We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high‐sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability ( P ≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability ( P > 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low‐sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming ( P ≪ 1%) and has low likelihood ( P ≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.
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In the Arctic, sea-ice extent has been found to be linearly related to global-mean temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
“In the Arctic the latter has been found to be linearly related to global-mean temperature (e.g.Gregory et al., 2002;Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018), atmospheric CO 2 concentration (e.g.Johannessen, 2008;Notz and Marotzke, 2012) and anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (Zickfeld et al., 2012;Herrington and Zickfeld, 2014;Notz and Stroeve, 2016).”
From Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records (2019) · cites this paper as Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018
Section 2.2 reports a linear relationship between global-mean temperature and Arctic sea-ice area in observations and simulations. The citing sentence refers to sea-ice extent, whereas the paper explicitly uses area rather than extent (Section 2.1). This citation is attached to the temperature relationship, not the separate claims about CO₂ concentration or emissions. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredObservational uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty for estimating at which level of global warming the Arctic will lose its summer sea-ice cover.
“Niederdrenk and Notz (2018) found that observational uncertainty is the main source of uncertainty for estimating at which level of global warming the Arctic will lose its summer sea-ice cover.”
From Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records (2019) · cites this paper as Niederdrenk and Notz (2018)
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Cites
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records
Lavergne, T., Sørensen, A. M., Kern, S., Tonboe, R., Notz, D., Aaboe, S., Bell, L., Dybkjær, G., Eastwood, S., Gabarro, C., et al. (2019) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-13-49-2019 · Cited by 469 · see citing works
“…relationships allow one to estimate the future evolution of Arctic sea ice directly from the observational record (e.g. Notz and Stroeve, 2016; Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018), to evaluate the sea-ice evolution in coupled climate models, and to bias correct estimates from climate models for…”
BackgroundSelf-citation1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts
Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., D'haen, S., Hare, W., Lissner, T., Ly, M., Nauels, A., Noblet, M., Pfleiderer, P., Pringle, P., et al. (2018) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
- Authors
- Niederdrenk, A. L., & Notz, D.
- Affiliations
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Niederdrenk, Anne Laura
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2018-02-20
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1963-1971
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2790794870
- Cited by
- 87
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 9
- FWCI
- 5.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- German Ministry for Education and Research
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Keywords
- Arctic sea ice, 1.5 °C warming, 2 °C warming, observational uncertainty, climate model ensembles, climate change scenarios
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