Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM

Gregory, J. M.; Stott, P. A.; Cresswell, D. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Gordon, C.; Sexton, D. M. H.

doi:10.1029/2001gl014575

Cited by 145Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamicsClimate variability and modelsCryospheric studies and observations

Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM

Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Cresswell, D. J., Rayner, N. A., Gordon, C., Sexton, D. M. H.·2002·Geophysical Research Letters

DOI 10.1029/2001gl014575

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Abstract

The HadCM3 AOGCM has been used to undertake an ensemble of four integrations from 1860 to 1999 with forcings due to all major anthropogenic and natural climate factors. The simulated decreasing trend in average Arctic sea ice extent for 1970–1999 (−2.5% per decade) is very similar to observations. HadCM3 indicates that internal variability and natural forcings (solar and volcanic) of the climate system are very unlikely by themselves to have caused a trend of this size. The simulated decreasing trend in Arctic sea ice volume (−3.4% per decade for 1961–1998) is less than some recent observationally based estimates. Extending the integrations into the 21st century, Arctic sea ice area and volume continue to decline. Area decreases linearly as global‐average temperature rises (by 13% per K), and volume diminishes more rapidly than area. By the end of the century, in some scenarios, the Arctic is ice‐free in late summer.

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In the Arctic, sea-ice extent has been found to be linearly related to global-mean temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
“In the Arctic the latter has been found to be linearly related to global-mean temperature (e.g.Gregory et al., 2002;Niederdrenk and Notz, 2018), atmospheric CO 2 concentration (e.g.Johannessen, 2008;Notz and Marotzke, 2012) and anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (Zickfeld et al., 2012;Herrington and Zickfeld, 2014;Notz and Stroeve, 2016).”
From Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records (2019) · cites this paper as Gregory et al., 2002

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Authors: Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Cresswell, D. J., Rayner, N. A., Gordon, C., & Sexton, D. M. H.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
ORCID: Gregory, J. M.
Stott, P. A.
Rayner, N. A.
Sexton, D. M. H.
Venue: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2002-12
Volume: 29
Issue: 24
ISSN: 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
1944-8007
DOI: 10.1029/2001gl014575
OpenAlex: W1979979919
Cited by: 145
References: 15
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 8
FWCI: 4.20
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor, 20 d)
Locations: Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
Keywords: Arctic sea ice, sea ice decline, HadCM3, climate model projections, sea ice volume, sea ice area, anthropogenic forcing, natural climate variability, solar forcing, volcanic forcing, ice-free Arctic, global warming, climate sensitivity

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Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM

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