The DOI matches its Crossref record; 81 of the 81 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Performance of Risk Prediction Models
Abstract
For medical decision making and patient information, predictions of future status variables play an important role. Risk prediction models can be derived with many different statistical approaches. To compare them, measures of predictive performance are derived from ROC methodology and from probability forecasting theory. These tools can be applied to assess single markers, multivariable regression models and complex model selection algorithms. This article provides a systematic review of the modern way of assessing risk prediction models. Particular attention is put on proper benchmarks and resampling techniques that are important for the interpretation of measured performance. All methods are illustrated with data from a clinical study in head and neck cancer patients. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)
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Cites
Breiman, L. (2001) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1023/a:1010933404324 · Cited by 133,538
Harrell, F. E. (2001) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3462-1 · Cited by 9,195
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Pencina, M. J., D' Agostino, R. B., D' Agostino, R. B., & Vasan, R. S. (2008) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.2929 · Cited by 6,493
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Gneiting, T., & Raftery, A. E. (2007) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/016214506000001437 · Cited by 5,793
A Predictive Model for Aggressive Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma
(1993) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm199309303291402 · Cited by 4,949
Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author)
Breiman, L. (2001) · Statistical Science · doi:10.1214/ss/1009213726 · Cited by 4,340
Time‐Dependent ROC Curves for Censored Survival Data and a Diagnostic Marker
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Internal validation of predictive models
Steyerberg, E. W., Harrell, F. E., Borsboom, G. J. J. M., Eijkemans, M. J. C., Vergouwe, Y., & Habbema, J. D. F. (2001) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00341-9 · Cited by 2,746
A Simple Generalisation of the Area Under the ROC Curve for Multiple Class Classification Problems
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Cited by
Assessing the Performance of Prediction Models: A Framework for Traditional and Novel Measures
Steyerberg, E. W., Vickers, A. J., Cook, N. R., Gerds, T., Gonen, M., Obuchowski, N., Pencina, M. J., & Kattan, M. W. (2010) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e3181c30fb2 · Cited by 5,170
Self-citationMoons, K. G. M., Altman, D. G., Reitsma, J. B., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Macaskill, P., Steyerberg, E. W., Vickers, A. J., Ransohoff, D. F., & Collins, G. S. (2015) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m14-0698 · Cited by 5,147
Alba, A. C., Agoritsas, T., Walsh, M., Hanna, S., Iorio, A., Devereaux, P. J., McGinn, T., & Guyatt, G. (2017) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2017.12126 · Cited by 1,631
Cohen, M. E., Ko, C. Y., Bilimoria, K. Y., Zhou, L., Huffman, K., Wang, X., Liu, Y., Kraemer, K., Meng, X., Merkow, R., et al. (2013) · Journal of the American College of Surgeons · doi:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2013.02.027 · Cited by 583
Ling, Y., Johnson, M. K., Kiely, D. G., Condliffe, R., Elliot, C. A., Gibbs, J. S. R., Howard, L. S., Pepke-Zaba, J., Sheares, K. K. K., Corris, P. A., et al. (2012) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.201203-0383oc · Cited by 560
Metadata
- Authors
- Gerds, T. A., Cai, T., & Schumacher, M.
- Venue
- Biometrical Journal
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2008-07-29
- Volume
- 50
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 457-479
- ISSN
- 0323-3847 (ISSN-L)
- 1521-4036
- OpenAlex
- W2093194558
- Cited by
- 288
- References
- 81
- FWCI
- 9.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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