CGIAR modeling approaches for resource‐constrained scenarios: II. Models for analyzing socioeconomic factors to improve policy recommendations

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Through communities of practice of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, efforts are underway to improve data findability, accessibility, and interoperability for reuse, which is essential for the modeling reviewed.

“Through the communities of practice of the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture, efforts are underway to enhance data findability, accessibility, and interoperability to enhance the reuse of data, essential for the type of modeling discussed in this review.”

May combine two claims.

ICARDA and CIMMYT are both currently involved in research projects that use bio-economic household models.

“Both ICARDA and CIMMYT are currently engaged in research projects related to using bio-economic household models.”

May combine two claims.

For most crops, integrated crop-pest models or data on pest and disease effects on yields are lacking, which prevents calibration and evaluation of models.

“However, for most crops, there is a lack of integrated crop-pest models or even data on the effect of pests and diseases on yields to calibrate and evaluate models.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Participatory methods have not always been included in economic simulation models.

“However, participatory approaches have not always been incorporated into the economic simulation models.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Many models at higher aggregation levels struggle to capture key economic components, such as the labor market.

“Moreover, many of the higher aggregation levels models have difficulty capturing key components of the economy such as the labor market.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Market imperfections are typically not adequately represented in models.

“Market imperfections are usually not represented adequately.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

ICRISAT promotes more multidisciplinary collaboration among modelers, crop physiologists, and key stakeholders to connect structural model outputs with crop improvement programs and better target technologies for greater impact.

“To foster the link between the structural models' outcomes with the crop improvement programs to better target the technologies to achieve greater impacts, ICRISAT encourages more multidisciplinary collaboration among modelers, crop physiologists, and key stakeholders.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Several CGIAR centers support interdisciplinary approaches.

“Various centers foster interdisciplinary approaches.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Smart phones for GPS coordinates and Google Maps for locating villages, obtaining coordinates, and linking them to global soil and historical weather data are now advantages available to bio-economic modeling.

“The possibility of smart phones for getting GPS coordinates and the feasibility of using Google Maps to locate villages, obtain their GPS coordinates, and linking them to global soil and historical weather data are now advantages that bio-economic modeling work can use.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The study highlights a clear distinction between foresight and ex-ante impact assessment, although the literature often uses the terms interchangeably.

“As our study highlights, there is a clear distinction between foresight and ex-ante impact assessment even though the terms are often used interchangeably in the literature.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

CGIAR centers show clear willingness to continue deploying the IMPACT model and interest in collaborating with advanced research institutes and academia on alternative integrated assessment models, such as through AgMIP.

“Across the different CGIAR centers, there is a clear willingness for continued deployment of the IMPACT model, while there is also an interest to actively pursue collaboration with other advanced research institutes and academia regarding alternate integrated assessment models, for example, through Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (https://agmip.org/).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

ICRISAT still uses models that have been calibrated and validated to judge how competitive alternative technologies and management practices are, and to study socioeconomic processes that may enable sustainable intensification in mixed crop-livestock systems, particularly in semi-arid areas.

“ICRISAT, for example, continues using the calibrated and validated models to evaluate the competitiveness of alternative productivity enhancing technologies and management practices and the socioeconomic processes that can facilitate sustainable intensification of mixed crop-livestock systems particularly in semi-arid environments.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Labor demand for specific technologies or practices is hard to address because of poor data, including insufficient data on labor quantity used in crop production, labor price, and gender disaggregation.

“Labor demand for specific technologies or practices, while a major issue for sustainable development is difficult to address because of poor data, among others, inadequate data on quantity of labor used in crop production, price of labor, and gender disaggregation.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Bio-economic models are used in exploratory studies to understand potential impacts of drivers such as climate change and alternative crop management practices.

“Bio-economic models are used for exploratory studies to understand the potential impacts of drivers, for instance climate change and alternative crop management practices.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

At CIMMYT, crop modelers and economists work together in a dedicated team on ex-ante impact assessment.

“At CIMMYT, for instance, crop modelers and economists are working in a dedicated team on ex-ante impact assessment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Some of this work is done in close collaboration with the CGIAR Excellence in Breeding Platform, creating more synergies.

“Some of this work is done in close collaboration with the Excellence in Breeding Platform of the CGIAR ensuring more synergies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

CGIAR possesses the capability to conduct bio-economic modeling at the household level for evaluating pipeline technologies against farming systems and livelihood strategies across centers.

“As far as we are aware, within the CGIAR there is capacity for household-level bio-economic modeling in order to assess pipeline technologies in terms of how they fit into farming systems and livelihood strategies at different centers.”

May combine two claims.

Farm household-level bio-economic models are potent instruments for ex-ante assessment of pipeline technologies, able to incorporate climate change and weather variability scenarios.

“This is a powerful tool for ex-ante impact assessment of pipeline technologies that can readily capture climate change and weather variability scenarios to see how pipeline technologies fit into present and future farming systems and livelihood strategies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Models combined from different scientific domains may have incompatible scales, and assessment of scale differences between biophysical and socioeconomic models is often missing.

“Very often with bio-economic models and interlinked process models from different scientific domains, models are combined that may not be completely compatible in terms of their scales.”

• Also stated in: § 3 DATA AND TOOLS USED · plain

  “We recognize that this assessment of scale difference between biophysical and socioeconomic is often missing.”

May combine two claims.

An expanded partial budget analysis evaluates the inherent risk of technology packages rather than only average outcomes, and employs subjective time preferences to assess how well new packages align with farm households' risk management strategies.

“The expanded partial budget analysis looks at the intrinsic risk of different technology packages instead of just the average case.”

• Also stated in: § 3.1.6 Farm household-level bio-economic models · plain

  “Using subjective time preferences, the approach calculates how well new technology packages fit into risk management strategies of farm households (Tesfaye et al., 2018).”

• cites Tesfaye et al., 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Collaboration between crop and economic modeling yields greater impact than the combined effect of separate modeling efforts.

“Since linking crop modeling and economic modeling is complicated and requires an interdisciplinary approach, more impact can be achieved through such collaboration than through the sum of individual modeling activities.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Socioeconomic modeling evaluates how well technologies fit different contexts and extends beyond the original field or laboratory testing sites.

“This is because, for example, socioeconomic modeling considers the suitability of technologies to different contexts and goes beyond the field or laboratory where technologies were initially innovated and tested.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

CGIAR research is mostly focused on resource-constrained smallholder farmers.

“This means research is mostly focused toward resource-constrained smallholder farmers.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Crop models within bio-economic frameworks rely heavily on advances in crop science, and CGIAR centers have a strong record of contributing to that science.

“The crop models used in the bio-economic modeling frameworks depend critically on the advancement of crop science; the CGIAR centers have a demonstrated record of significant contributions.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Interdisciplinary collaboration and collaboration across research organizations are required for linking crop and economic models.

“This requires interdisciplinary collaboration and very often collaboration across a variety of research organizations.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Integrating partial and general equilibrium models is crucial to capture general equilibrium effects of technology change.

“Therefore, to capture general equilibrium effects of technology change, as predicted by partial equilibrium economic models such as the IMPACT or assumed using expert opinion, integrating partial and general equilibrium models is crucial.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Alternatives to costly and time-consuming household surveys can increase the use of bio-economic models, especially at lower aggregation levels.

“Finding alternatives to costly and time-consuming household surveys can enhance the use of bio-economic models especially at lower aggregation levels.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

This information can support policy advice and decision support for various stakeholders.

“This can be used for policy advice and decision support for various stakeholders.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Bio-economic modeling approaches address complex challenges and therefore can benefit greatly from interdisciplinary and interinstitutional collaboration.

“Bio-economic modeling approaches tackle complex challenges and hence can benefit tremendously from interdisciplinary and interinstitutional collaboration.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

There is an opportunity to exploit a new data paradigm in regions that have traditionally lacked data.

“There is an opportunity to take advantage of a new data paradigm in traditionally data-poor regions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

GFSF is a CGIAR-wide initiative that uses diverse quantitative methods for strategic foresight to assess promising technologies, investments, and policy reforms and to inform policy decisions.

“the GFSF project is an excellent platform of CGIAR research centers that focuses on evaluating promising technologies, investments, and policy reforms with various quantitative methods for strategic foresight to inform policy decisions”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Computable general equilibrium models account for interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors that affect crop supply, demand, and price formation.

“Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models consider the interactions between agriculture and other economic sectors are affecting the supply, demand, and price formation of crops.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

This includes reusing models in new locations, on larger data sets, and analyzing results with big data analytics tools.

“This includes but is not limited to reusing models in new locations, on larger sets of information, and allowing the results to be analyzed with big data analytics tools.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

A data revolution is underway, with new data sources appearing regularly; new data sources and techniques for improving data operability offer scope to use existing models in new ways.

“We are in the middle of a data revolution, with new data sources coming available regularly, the use of new data sources, and new techniques to enhance data operability offer scope for using existing models in new and exciting ways.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Adding socioeconomic context greatly increases the value of crop model outputs and the crop science knowledge and data behind them, regardless of scale.

“The value of crop model outputs, and underpinning crop science knowledge and data, is greatly enhanced by adding the socioeconomic context irrespective of the scale at which this occurs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

SPAM employs a cross-entropy method to generate plausible estimates of crop distribution at disaggregated spatial units.

“Using a variety of inputs, the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM, http://mapspam.info/)uses a cross-entropy approach to make plausible estimates of crop distribution within disaggregated units.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Improved data interoperability allows multiple models to be applied to the same data set.

“Enhanced data interoperability also allows multiple models to be used on the same data set.”

May combine two claims.

As a result, food prices would fall and household incomes would rise, so the large share and number of hungry people in Africa could decline by 2030 under increased investment.

“As a result, food prices will decline and household incomes will increase; therefore, the large share and number of hungry people in Africa could decline by 2030 under increased investment.”

• cites Mason-D'Croz et al. (2019)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Growing availability of interoperable farm-household survey data sets offers scope to use existing tools with these data sets alongside more readily available crop modeling results.

“The increasing availability of interoperable data sets at farm household level based on surveys offers scope to use existing tools with these data sets in combination of more readily available crop modeling results.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Mason-D'Croz et al. (2019) found that increased investments of US$15 billion per year between 2015 and 2030 may raise crop and livestock productivity in Africa by 50% relative to 2010 levels.

“Mason-D'Croz et al. (2019) found that increased investments, US$15 billion yr -1 between 2015 and 2030, may boost crop and livestock productivity by 50% in Africa vs. 2010 productivity levels.”

• cites Mason-D'Croz et al. (2019)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Connecting integrated crop-pest disease models with economic models would provide foresight about emerging pests and diseases and their impact on crop production.

“Linking the integrated crop-pest disease models with the economic models will provide foresight of emerging pests and diseases and its impact on crop production.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Information from these models can support priority setting in international agricultural research, better understanding of agricultural households, and agri-food system outcomes under changing and uncertain conditions.

“The information can be used for priority setting within international agricultural research, for a better understanding of agricultural households, and agri-food systems outcomes under changing circumstances and uncertain conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

For complex dynamic agri-food systems, various models offer insights into key parts of the system under different scenarios.

“For complex dynamic agri-food systems, various models provide insights into key parts of the system under various scenarios.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture includes two communities of practice relevant here, one for crop modeling and one for socioeconomic data.

“Another example of effective collaboration is the CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture (https://bigdata.cgiar.org/)hosting two relevant communities of practice in the context of the current review: one on crop modeling and one on socioeconomic data.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Combining crop modeling and economic modeling provides scope and opportunity for both foresight analysis and ex-ante impact assessment.

“The combination of crop modeling and economic modeling offers scope and opportunity for both foresight analysis and ex-ante impact assessment.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Modeling the risk that new and emerging pests and diseases pose to production, productivity, and food security is an important topic receiving increasing attention.

“Modeling the risk of new and emerging pests and diseases on production, productivity, and food security is an important topic that is getting more attention (Duku, Sparks, & Zwart, 2016;Mottaleb, Loladze, Sonder, Kruseman, & San Vicente, 2019;Mottaleb et al., 2018;Yigezu et al., 2010;Yigezu & Sanders, 2012).”

• cites Duku, Sparks, & Zwart, 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Mottaleb, Loladze, Sonder, Kruseman, & San Vicente, 2019Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Mottaleb et al., 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

This information can now be used for various purposes, such as yield gap analysis with data collected years ago that lacked weather and soil data now available.

“We can now use this information for various purpose, for example, yield gap analysis using data that was collected a few years ago that did not contain weather and soil data that is now available.”