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Cited by 34Fish Ecology and Management StudiesMarine and fisheries researchWildlife Ecology and Conservation

Role of carryover effects in conservation of wild Pacific salmon migrating regulated rivers

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Gosselin, Jennifer L., Buhle, Eric R., Van Holmes, Christopher, Beer, W. Nicholas, Iltis, Susannah, Anderson, James J.·2021·Ecosphere
DOI 10.1002/ecs2.3618
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Abstract

Determining which factors are most effective for mitigative strategies in conservation management can be difficult for species with complex life cycles. Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) migrating through a hydroelectric power system experience conditions that can affect their survival directly within a life stage and indirectly in subsequent life stages through carryover effects. We quantified the association of covariates with survival across life stages of Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha): juveniles migrating downstream, juveniles in the estuary, subadults in the ocean, and adults migrating upstream. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian mark–recapture model to ~400,000 wild Snake River Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, USA). Modeled covariates of survival included migration timing, river temperature, flow, percent of water spilled over dams, snow water equivalent, juvenile fish transportation, juvenile fish length, dam powerhouse passage, sea surface temperature, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. By analyzing these covariates in a unified model, we evaluated their relationships to survival within and across life stages in a common currency. Among direct effects, the negative relationship of sea surface temperature to ocean survival had the largest marginal effect size. Carryover effects also had substantial marginal effect sizes. Ocean survival was associated positively with juvenile length and snow water equivalent and negatively with river temperature. In comparison, direct effects on juvenile and adult survival generally showed smaller marginal effect sizes. Both juvenile and adult survival were negatively associated with river temperature. Juvenile survival increased with fish length, while adult survival was positively related to flow and negatively to percent water spilled at dams. The greatest variability in survival, however, was in the ocean stage. Thus, as the ocean continues to warm and as the human population exerts more pressure on the ecosystem, carryover effects will be increasingly important for recovering salmon and other migratory species.

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  • These studies suggest that estuarine growth can be an important 'carryover' effect of estuary rearing that relates to subsequent ocean survival.

    “These studies suggest that estuarine growth can be an important”

    From Life in the Fast Lane: Feeding and Growth of Juvenile Steelhead and Chinook Salmon in <scp>Main‐Stem</scp> Habitats of the Columbia River Estuary (2022) · cites this paper as Gosselin et al. 2021

    The Results (page unavailable) identify fish length as an important carryover predictor of ocean survival. But the Covariates section (page unavailable) says length was measured in the juvenile downstream reach and that no estuary covariates other than passage type were examined. The paper therefore does not establish that growth during estuary rearing relates to subsequent ocean survival. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Cited by

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Authors
Gosselin, J. L., Buhle, E. R., Van Holmes, C., Beer, W. N., Iltis, S., & Anderson, J. J.
Affiliations
  • University of Washington (US)
  • Biomark (United States) (US)
  • School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat Street Seattle Washington 98105 USA
Corresponding author
Gosselin, Jennifer L.
ORCID
Venue
Ecosphere
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2021-07
Volume
12
Issue
7
ISSN
2150-8925 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1002/ecs2.3618
OpenAlex
W3180358810
Cited by
34
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 1
FWCI
2.88
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Ecosphere (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • Bonneville Power Administration
  • National Marine Fisheries Service
  • Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
Keywords
residual effects, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Snake River, hydroelectric dams, salmon survival, juvenile survival, sea surface temperature, river temperature, snow water equivalent, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, salmon conservation, life stages, migration timing

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