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Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence
Open accessAbstract
This study provides estimates of the human contribution to the observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes. We consider the annual maxima of daily (RX1day) and 5 day consecutive (RX5day) precipitation amounts over the Northern Hemisphere land area for 1951–2005 and compare observed changes with expected responses to external forcings as simulated by multiple coupled climate models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effect of anthropogenic forcings can be detected in extreme precipitation observations, both individually and when simultaneously estimating anthropogenic and naturally forced changes. The effect of natural forcings is not detectable. We estimate that human influence has intensified annual maximum 1 day precipitation in sampled Northern Hemisphere locations by 3.3% [1.1% to 5.8%, >90% confidence interval] on average. This corresponds to an average intensification in RX1day of 5.2% [1.3%, 9.3%] per degree increase in observed global mean surface temperature consistent with the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship.
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Cited by
More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A., & Maher, N. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2941 · Cited by 1,792
Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
Fischer, E. M., & Knutti, R. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2617 · Cited by 1,427
How climate change affects extreme weather events
Stott, P. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf7271 · Cited by 940
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
O’Gorman, P. A. (2015) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3 · Cited by 881
“Anthropogenic forcing has been shown to have contributed to the intensification of precipitation extremes over Northern Hemisphere land [53,95].”
BackgroundAttribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., et al. (2016) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.380 · Cited by 781
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Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., & Min, S.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2013-10-11
- Volume
- 40
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 5252-5257
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1773518713
- Cited by
- 354
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 13.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Zhang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., & Min, S. (2013). Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.51010
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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