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Cited by 781Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental ImpactMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations

Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events

Open access
Stott, Peter A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Otto, Friederike E. L., Sun, Ying, Vanderlinden, Jean‐Paul, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Vautard, Robert, von Storch, Hans +3 more·2016·WIREs Climate Change
DOI 10.1002/wcc.380PMC PMC4739554
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Abstract

Extreme weather and climate‐related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human‐induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23–41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Detection and Attribution Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models

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  • Anthropogenic climate change increases the intensity, duration, and frequency of many hydrological, meteorological, climatological, and biological hazards.

    “Anthropogenic climate change increases the intensity, duration, and frequency of many hydrological, meteorological, climatological, and biological hazards (IPCC, 2018, 2021; Stott et al., 2016).”

    From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Stott et al., 2016

    The Introduction reports that anthropogenic forcing has increased the occurrence of extreme temperature and rainfall events, and Broad-Scale Approaches reports an increase in the intensity of extreme one-day precipitation. The paper does not establish increases in duration or address biological hazards; its Abstract also says evidence for effects on droughts and storms is more mixed. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • An increasing literature shows how short-term events, such as storms, and medium-term events, such as droughts, are linked to anthropogenic climate change and can also be used for estimation of longer-term climatic impacts.

    “Yet, an increasing literature shows how short-term events, such as storms, and medium-term events, such as droughts, are linked to anthropogenic climate change (Lehmann et al., 2018;Otto, 2017;Stott et al., 2016) and can also be used for the estimation of longer-term climatic impacts (Hsiang, 2016).”

    From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Stott et al., 2016

    Stott et al. describe a rapidly developing literature that assesses whether anthropogenic climate change changes the probability or magnitude of extreme events (Abstract). But the Discussion and Conclusions says evidence for human influence on droughts and storms is mixed, so the unqualified claim that those events are linked to climate change overstates this source. The longer-term impacts clause is cited to Hsiang, not Stott. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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1 of the 69 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. [4]Cubasch U, Wuebbles D, Chen D, Facchini MC, Frame D, Mahowald N, Winthur J‐G. Introduction In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G‐K, Tignor M, Alen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press; 2013, 119– 158.
  2. [6]Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Feng J. Anthropogenic influence on extreme daily temperatures at regional scales. J Climate 2011, 24: 881– 892.
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  11. [70]Stehr N, von Storch H. Soziale Naturwissenschaft oder die Zukunft der Wissenschaftskulturen. Vorgänge 1998, 142: 8– 12.

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Authors
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., & Zwiers, F. W.
Affiliations
  • Met Office (GB)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • China Meteorological Administration (CN)
  • Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR)
  • Weather and Climate Modeling Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut De Bilt Netherlands
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Institut für Küstenforschung Geesthacht Germany
  • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR)
  • Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Victoria Canada
Corresponding author
Stott, Peter A.
ORCID
Venue
WIREs Climate Change
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2015-12-16
Volume
7
Issue
1
Pages
23-41
ISSN
  • 1757-7780 (ISSN-L)
  • 1757-7799
DOI
10.1002/wcc.380
PMC
PMC4739554
OpenAlex
W2220861217
Cited by
781
References
69
Citations by year
2026: 49 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 85 · 2023: 95 · 2022: 102 · 2021: 84 · 2020: 88 · 2019: 72 · 2018: 55 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 18
FWCI
3.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum für Materialforschung und kustenforschung (The Helmholtz Center Geesthacht) (submittedVersion)
  • UVic’s Research and Learning Repository (University of Victoria) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • EUCLEIA (EUropean Climate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution) (607085)
  • UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund
  • Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)
  • ERC (338965-A2C2)
  • Chinese programs (2012CB417205, YHY201406020)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords
event attribution, extreme weather events, climate change detection, anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, temperature extremes, heavy rainfall, drought, storms, uncertainty analysis, stakeholder communication

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