Uncertainty in the economic evaluation of health care technologies: the role of sensitivity analysis
Abstract
Given the increased use of economic evaluation to inform decision making in the health service, it is particularly important that the research methods used are critically assessed and, where possible, improved. The systematic handling of uncertainty in economic evaluation is an important area that remains methodologically underdeveloped. With the increased use of the clinical trial as a vehicle for economic evaluation, there has been recent interest in how the statistical methods routinely employed to handle uncertainty in clinical research might be applied to economic evaluation. This paper reviews the types of uncertainty that exist in economic evaluation and argues that some forms of uncertainty are not amenable to statistical methods. Sensitivity analysis is not a single approach but can take a number of different forms. The different types of sensitivity analysis are reviewed, with an indication of their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the different types of uncertainty in economic evaluation.
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Methodological uncertainty can be as important as parameter uncertainty.
“Methodological uncertainty has been identified as a specific type [8,9] that can be as important as parameter uncertainty [10].”
From Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-6 (2012) · cites this paper as [8]
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- Authors
- Briggs, A., Sculpher, M., & Buxton, M.
- Affiliations
- Brunel University of London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Sculpher, Mark
- Venue
- Health Economics
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1994-03
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 95-104
- ISSN
- 1057-9230 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-1050
- OpenAlex
- W2023723044
- Cited by
- 521
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 17 · 2012: 23
- FWCI
- 11.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Health Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic and Environmental Valuation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Delphi Technique in Research
- Keywords
- uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, economic evaluation, health technology, types of uncertainty, clinical trials, healthcare decision-making, methodological critique
- MeSH terms
- Cost-Benefit Analysis, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Sensitivity and Specificity, Technology Assessment, Biomedical, Health Care Costs
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