Cited by 123Occupational and environmental lung diseasesOccupational Health and Global JusticeGlobal Cancer Incidence and Screening

Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models

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Marinaccio, Alessandro, Montanaro, Fabio, Mastrantonio, Marina, Uccelli, Raffaella, Altavista, Pierluigi, Nesti, Massimo, Costantini, Adele Seniori, Gorini, Giuseppe·2005·International Journal of Cancer

Abstract

Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid‐1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970–1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age‐cohort‐period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012–2024. Results estimated using age‐period‐cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

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  1. [2]2. Boffetta P, Burdorf A, Goldberg M, Merler E, Siemiatycki J. Towards the coordination of European research on the carcinogenic effects of asbestos. Scand J Work Environ Health 1998;24:312-7.
  2. [10]10. Selikoff IJ, Hammond EC, Seidmann H. Latency of asbestos disease among insulation workers in the United States and Canada. Cancer 1980;46:2736 -40.
  3. [34]34. Desoubeaux N, Bouvier V, Gervais R, Galateau-Salle F, Thibon P, Leplumey T, Herbert C, Lecherbonnier Y, Daviet JP, Letourneux M. Me ´sothe ´liomes malins en Basse-Normandie: analyse descriptive, fac- teurs pronostiques et survie-une e ´tude de population. Rev Epidemiol Sante Publ 2001;49:523-9.

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Authors
Marinaccio, A., Montanaro, F., Mastrantonio, M., Uccelli, R., Altavista, P., Nesti, M., Costantini, A. S., & Gorini, G.
Affiliations
  • Istituto Cantonale di Patologia (CH)
  • National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (IT)
Corresponding author
Marinaccio, Alessandro
Venue
International Journal of Cancer
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2005-01-11
Volume
115
Issue
1
Pages
142-147
ISSN
  • 0020-7136 (ISSN-L)
  • 1097-0215
OpenAlex
W2033493603
Cited by
123
References
39
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 10
FWCI
5.33
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • International Journal of Cancer (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Occupational and environmental lung diseases
  • Social Sciences › Health › Occupational Health and Global Justice
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
Keywords
pleural mesothelioma, asbestos consumption, mortality prediction, age-period-cohort model, occupational asbestos exposure, misdiagnosis, Italy
MeSH terms
Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Asbestos, Humans, Italy, Male, Mesothelioma, Middle Aged, Pleural Neoplasms, Time Factors, Models, Statistical, Cohort Studies, Occupational Exposure

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