The DOI matches its Crossref record; 62 of the 62 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010: WORLD DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGIES FOR 1951-2010
Abstract
In the context of climate change characterized by rising temperature and more extreme precipitation regimes, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters. This paper presents maps of global drought frequency, duration, and severity for the periods 1951–1970, 1971–1990, and 1991–2010, to give an overview of the respective drought hot spots. Drought frequency is defined as the number of drought events occurred, drought duration as the number of months in drought conditions, and drought severity as the sum of the integral area below zero of each event. Because drought is mainly driven by rainfall deficits, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the base indicator to derive drought-related quantities. SPI-12 has been calculated on a monthly basis using a Gamma distribution fitted to a 60-year baseline period (1951–2010). Global grids (0.5° × 0.5°) of the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 dataset provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used as precipitation data input. The regions most exposed to prolonged and severe droughts during 1951–1970 were the Central United States, the Argentinian Pampas, Russia, and Central Australia; during 1971–1990 they were Southern Chile, the Sahel, and Siberia; during 1991–2010 they were the Amazon Forest, the Congo River Basin, Mongolia, North Eastern China, and Borneo. A linear trend analysis between 1951 and 2010 shows a small global increase in each drought component, but drought frequency decreased in the Northern Hemisphere. The increase in drought frequency, duration, and severity is found to be significant in Africa, Eastern Asia, Mediterranean region, and Southern Australia, while the Americas and Russia show a decrease in each drought component.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Marquis, M. C., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., Miller, H. L., & Chen, Z. (2007) · Cited by 23,383
Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998) · FAO eBooks · Cited by 20,520
(2007) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 9,612
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2909.1 · Cited by 9,493
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate
Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948) · Geographical Review · doi:10.2307/210739 · Cited by 9,087
(1993) · Cited by 7,699
Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012 · Cited by 5,436
Mitchell, T. D., & Jones, P. D. (2005) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1181 · Cited by 3,822
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523 · cited 4×
“Recently, Dai (2011) and Sheffield et al. (2012) discussed drought trends of the last 60 years: they showed that different computation techniques result in different evaluations of the global drought trends.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialUnderstanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions
Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985) · Water International · doi:10.1080/02508068508686328 · Cited by 3,154
Research works printed but not linked: 21
- Agnew, 2000, Using the SPI to identify drought, Drought Netw. News, 12, 6
- Henricksen, 1986, Growing period and drought early warning in Africa using satellite data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 7, 1583, 10.1080/01431168608948955 · doi:10.1080/01431168608948955
- Kurnik, 2011, Testing two different precipitation datasets to compute the standardized precipitation index over the Horn of Africa, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 5947, 10.1080/01431161.2010.499380 · doi:10.1080/01431161.2010.499380
- Li, 2003, Studies on drought in the past 50 years in China, Chin. J. Agrometeorol., 1, 002
- Liu, 2009, Drought reconstruction in the Qilian Mountains over the last two centuries and its implications for large-scale moisture patterns, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26, 621, 10.1007/s00376-009-9028-0 · doi:10.1007/s00376-009-9028-0
- McKee, 1993, Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 179
- McKee, 1995, Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Applied Climatology, 233
- McVicar, 2001, Rapidly assessing the 1997 drought in Papua New Guinea using composite AVHRR imagery, Int J Remote Sens, 22, 2109, 10.1080/01431160120728 · doi:10.1080/01431160120728
- Meshcherskaya, 1997, The drought and excessive moisture indices in a historical perspective in the principal grain-producing regions of the former Soviet Union, J. Clim., 10, 2670, 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2670:TDAEMI>2.0.CO;2 · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010
- Min, 2003, Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 223, 10.1002/joc.872 · doi:10.1002/joc.872
- National Geographic Society, 2010, National Geographic Atlas of the World
- Pozzi W Sheffield J Stefanski R Cripe D Pulwarty R Vogt J Heim R Brewer MJ Svoboda M Westerhoff R van Dijk A Lloyd-Hughes B Pappenberger F Werner M Dutra E Wetterhall F Wagner W Schubert S Mo K Nicholson M Bettio L Nuñez L van Beek R Bierkens M Goncalves LG Zell de Mattos JG Lawford R 2013 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00176 · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00176
- Prabhakar, 2008, Climate change adaptation implications for drought risk mitigation: a perspective for India, Clim. Change, 88, 113, 10.1007/s10584-007-9330-8 · doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9330-8
- Rouault, 2003, Intensity and spatial extension of drought in South Africa at different time scales, Water SA, 29, 489
- Scian, 1997, Retrospective analysis of the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the semi-arid Pampas region, Argentina, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 313, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970315)17:3<313::AID-JOC112>3.0.CO;2-W · doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(19970315)17:3<313::aid-joc112>3.0.co;2-w
- Stagge, 2013, Pan-European comparison of candidate distributions for climatological drought indices, SPI and SPEI, Geophys. Res. (Abstracts), 15, EGU2013
- Szentimrey T. 1999 Proceedings of the Second Seminar for Homogenization of Surface Climatological Data
- Wu, 2005, The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 505, 10.1002/joc.1142 · doi:10.1002/joc.1142
- Yusof, 2012, Use of statistical distribution for drought analysis, Appl. Math. Sci., 6, 1031
- Zanvettor, 2000, Using the SPI to monitor the 1999-2000 Drought in Northeastern Argentina, Drought Netw. News, 12, 4
- Zhang, 2013, Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, J. Geograph. Sci., 23, 3, 10.1007/s11442-013-0989-7 · doi:10.1007/s11442-013-0989-7
Cited by
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., Drüke, M., Fetzer, I., Bala, G., von Bloh, W., et al. (2023) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 · Cited by 3,311
Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
Chiang, F., Mazdiyasni, O., & AghaKouchak, A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w · Cited by 689
Structure and Functioning of Dryland Ecosystems in a Changing World
Maestre, F. T., Eldridge, D. J., Soliveres, S., Kéfi, S., Delgado-Baquerizo, M., Bowker, M. A., García-Palacios, P., Gaitán, J., Gallardo, A., Lázaro, R., et al. (2016) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032311 · Cited by 561
A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., Magni, D., Masante, D., & Mazzeschi, M. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593 · Cited by 452
Self-citationIncrease in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change
Grillakis, M. G. (2019) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001 · Cited by 404
Metadata
- Authors
- Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrao, H., Barbosa, P., & Vogt, J.
- Venue
- International Journal of Climatology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-11-27
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2792-2804
- ISSN
- 0899-8418 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1847031783
- Cited by
- 803
- References
- 62
- FWCI
- 11.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1 (tdm)
- onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010: WORLD DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGIES FOR 1951-2010. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1002/joc.3875
- The paper
- Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrao, H., Barbosa, P., & Vogt, J. (2014). World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010: WORLD DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGIES FOR 1951-2010. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3875
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
