Drought under global warming: a review
Open accessAbstract
This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Niña‐like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El‐Niño‐like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21 st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models' ability to predict tropical SSTs. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 45–65 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Detection and Attribution Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change
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Decreases in crop yield, due to drought and other factors, will pose a threat to food security.
“Decreases in crop yield, due to drought and other factors, will pose a threat to food security, as already evidenced by long periods of drought in North America, West Africa, and East Asia [157,636].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [157]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal warming and changes in drought
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2067 · Cited by 3,382 · see citing works
Self-citationChanges in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D. R., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J. P., Luo, Y., Marengo, J. A., McInnes, K. L., Rahimi, M., et al. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.006 · Cited by 2,559 · see citing works
“This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including simulations with different hydrological models as well as PDSI and CDD estimates (Alexander et al., 2006; Andreadis and Lettenmaier, 2006; van der Schrier et al., 2006a; Kunkel et al., 2008; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a; Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialIndices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data
Zhang, X., Alexander, L. V., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P. D., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B. C., & Zwiers, F. W. (2011) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.147 · Cited by 2,299 · see citing works
“Two main differences in various indices of extremes are (1) how the distribution was defined, and (2) how far into the tails of the distribution the index threshold is located.”
BackgroundLittle change in global drought over the past 60 years
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., & Roderick, M. L. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11575 · Cited by 1,978 · see citing works
Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32290-x · Cited by 1,943 · see citing works
Hydrological drought explained
Loon, A. F. V. (2015) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1085 · Cited by 1,812 · see citing works
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., & Smerdon, J. E. (2015) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400082 · Cited by 1,455 · see citing works
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Swain, D. L., & Touma, D. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1422385112 · Cited by 1,389 · see citing works
“Although precipitation deficits are a prerequisite for the moisture deficits that constitute “drought” (by any definition) (15), elevated temperatures can greatly amplify evaporative demand, thereby increasing overall drought intensity and impact (16, 17).”
BackgroundThe Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A Systematic Descriptive Review
Cianconi, P., Betrò, S., & Janiri, L. (2020) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00074 · Cited by 1,320 · see citing works
The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity1
Lobell, D., & Gourdji, S. (2012) · Plant Physiology · doi:10.1104/pp.112.208298 · Cited by 919 · see citing works
“…T will increase evapotranspiration rates, and along with more intense storms and an associated higher proportion of runoff, this will lead to significant drying trends in soil moisture and a higher risk of agricultural drought in many agricultural land areas in the coming century (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundClimate variability and vulnerability to climate change: A review
Thornton, P. K., Ericksen, P. J., Herrero, M., & Challinor, A. J. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12581 · Cited by 1,235 · see citing works
“…to increase flash floods and runoff, and as a result increase soil erosion, diminish soil moisture and increase the risk of agricultural drought (Dai, 2011), as well as increasing the potential for crop losses due to flooding and affecting the dynamics of livestock diseases and their vectors,…”
BackgroundThe role of gibberellin signalling in plant responses to abiotic stress
Colebrook, E. H., Thomas, S. G., Phillips, A. L., & Hedden, P. (2013) · Journal of Experimental Biology · doi:10.1242/jeb.089938 · Cited by 1,085 · see citing works
“Response to soil drying Soil moisture deficit is a major constraint to crop yields that is predicted to become more serious in some regions, including southern Europe, as a result of climate change (Dai, 2011; Lobell and Gourdji, 2012).”
BackgroundGlobal warming and 21st century drying
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., & Coats, S. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y · Cited by 1,078 · see citing works
“Recently, there has been support for the use of the Penman-Monteith method (Penman 1948; Xu and Singh 2002) as an alternative to Thornthwaite for calculating PET for drought projections (Dai 2011, 2013 ; Hoerling et al. 2012; van der Schrier et al. 2013; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
InfluentialCharacteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008
Dai, A. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd015541 · Cited by 1,070 · see citing works
Self-citationWill drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., & Dosio, A. (2017) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5291 · Cited by 1,073 · see citing works
“…in the last decades (IPCC, 2014b, 2014a), drought can be considered a special case, as its global tendency towards more or less frequent drought events is still an open and debated issue (Dai, 2011, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012; Spinoni et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Schubert et al., 2016).”
BackgroundThe pollutant emissions from diesel-engine vehicles and exhaust aftertreatment systems
Reşitoğlu, İ. A., Altınışık, K., & Keskin, A. (2014) · Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy · doi:10.1007/s10098-014-0793-9 · Cited by 1,040 · see citing works
“…of ocean since 1950s, 3.2 cm sea-levels rising per decade, an exceptional number of extreme heat waves in last decade, and drought affecting food crop growing areas (Levitus et al. 2012; Meyssignac and Ca-zenave 2012; McKechnie and Wolf 2010; Li et al. 2009; Heyder et al. 2011; Dai 2011).”
BackgroundInfluentialGlobal desertification: Drivers and feedbacks
D’Odorico, P., Bhattachan, A., Davis, K. F., Ravi, S., & Runyan, C. W. (2012) · Advances in Water Resources · doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.01.013 · Cited by 1,005 · see citing works
“Global aridity has increased since the middle of the 20th century over Africa, east and southern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe [45].”
BackgroundInfluentialDryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges
Huang, J., Li, Y., Fu, C., Chen, F., Fu, Q., Dai, A., Shinoda, M., Ma, Z., Guo, W., Li, Z., et al. (2017) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2016rg000550 · Cited by 971 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.028 · Cited by 919 · see citing works
“Recent downscaling results (Lionello et al., 2008; Evans, 2009; Jin et al., 2010; Dai, 2011) suggest that the eastern Mediterranean will experience a decrease in precipitation during the rainy season due to a northward displacement of the storm tracks (Section 14.”
BackgroundNear-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.023 · Cited by 927 · see citing works
The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010–2018): A climate dynamics perspective
Garreaud, R. D., Boisier, J. P., Rondanelli, R., Montecinos, A., Sepúlveda, H. H., & Veloso‐Aguila, D. (2019) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6219 · Cited by 892 · see citing works
Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land
Greve, P., Orlowsky, B., Mueller, B., Sheffield, J., Reichstein, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2014) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2247 · Cited by 864 · see citing works
Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests
Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Anderson, C. M., Bartuska, A., Ciais, P., Cullenward, D., Field, C. B., Freeman, J., Goetz, S. J., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaz7005 · Cited by 854 · see citing works
Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices
Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A. K., & Trenberth, K. E. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x · Cited by 845 · see citing works
“It has been shown that sparse and poor quality of precipitation data [106] generate large uncertainties in quantifying spatiotemporal drought assessment under climate change [26, 27, 80, 107].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialDrivers and impacts of changes in China’s drylands
Li, C., Fu, B., Wang, S., Stringer, L. C., Wang, Y., Li, Z., Liu, Y., & Zhou, W. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00226-z · Cited by 832 · see citing works
Climate change impacts on soil salinity in agricultural areas
Corwin, D. L. (2021) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/ejss.13010 · Cited by 806 · see citing works
“Even though there is no short-term extreme weather event that can be conclusively attributed to climate change, there is a statistical record of these events showing that they clearly occur with increased frequency and/or intensity (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundWorld drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Carrão, H., Barbosa, P., & Vogt, J. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3875 · Cited by 806 · see citing works
“Recently, Dai (2011) and Sheffield et al. (2012) discussed drought trends of the last 60 years: they showed that different computation techniques result in different evaluations of the global drought trends.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialGlobal warming: review on driving forces and mitigation
Al‐Ghussain, L. (2018) · Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy · doi:10.1002/ep.13041 · Cited by 797 · see citing works
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., et al. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110 · Cited by 777 · see citing works
“This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (3), associated with a reduction in water availability at continental (4, 5) and global scales (6, 7).”
BackgroundEvidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López‐Moreno, J. I., Beguerı́a, S., Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorín-Molina, C., Morán‐Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R. M., et al. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001 · Cited by 765 · see citing works
“resulting in more frequent and severe droughts (Dai 2011).”
BackgroundA review of environmental droughts: Increased risk under global warming?
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Quiring, S. M., Peña‐Gallardo, M., Yuan, S., & Domínguez‐Castro, F. (2019) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102953 · Cited by 749 · see citing works
Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future
Cook, B. I., Mankin, J., & Anchukaitis, K. J. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2 · Cited by 752 · see citing works
The 2010–2015 megadrought in central Chile: impacts on regional hydroclimate and vegetation
Garreaud, R. D., Álvarez-Garretón, C., Barichivich, J., Boisier, J. P., Christie, D. A., Galleguillos, M., LeQuesne, C., McPhee, J., & Zambrano‐Bigiarini, M. (2017) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017 · Cited by 739 · see citing works
Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying
Milly, P. C. D., & Dunne, K. A. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3046 · Cited by 727 · see citing works
Multifaceted characteristics of dryland aridity changes in a warming world
Lian, X., Piao, S. L., Chen, A., Huntingford, C., Fu, B., Li, L., Huang, J., Sheffield, J., Berg, A., Keenan, T. F., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00144-0 · Cited by 743 · see citing works
A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective
Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F. E. F., & Trambauer, P. (2014) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014 · Cited by 709 · see citing works
“Sci., 18, 3635–3649, 2014 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/3635/2014/ literature (e.g. Dai, 2011; Mishra and Sing, 2010; Ntale and Gan, 2003; Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008; UNISDR, 2004; Zargar et al., 2011).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialEvidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
Chiang, F., Mazdiyasni, O., & AghaKouchak, A. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w · Cited by 689 · see citing works
Drought characterization from a multivariate perspective: A review
Hao, Z., & Singh, V. P. (2015) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.031 · Cited by 686 · see citing works
Hansen, J. E., Kharecha, P. A., Sato, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Ackerman, F., Beerling, D. J., Hearty, P. J., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., Hsu, S.-L., Parmesan, C., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 · Cited by 676 · see citing works
“Data analyses have found an increase of drought intensity at many locations [130–131] The magnitude of change depends on the drought index employed [132], but soil moisture provides a good means to separate the effect of shifting seasonal precipitation and confirms an overall drought…”
Macknick, J., Newmark, R. L., Heath, G. A., & Hallett, K. C. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045802 · Cited by 635 · see citing works
Evaluation of the ESA CCI soil moisture product using ground-based observations
Dorigo, W. A., Gruber, A., de Jeu, R., Wagner, W., Stacke, T., Loew, A., Albergel, C., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Parinussa, R., et al. (2014) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2014.07.023 · Cited by 634 · see citing works
“This may have a considerable impact if the models are used for studying long-term trends or future predictions (Dai, 2011; Sheffield, Wood, & Roderick, 2012).”
BackgroundClimate Change and Drought: a Precipitation and Evaporation Perspective
Dai, A., Zhao, T., & Chen, J. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0101-6 · Cited by 638 · see citing works
“Drought is a recurring extreme climate event over land characterized by below-normal precipitation and also often associated with warm temperatures over a period of months to years [2, 18, 65, 106].”
BackgroundSelf-citationA scPDSI‐based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901–2009
van der Schrier, G., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Jones, P. D. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50355 · Cited by 631 · see citing works
“[85] A comparison with the recently published [Dai, 2011b] scPDSI dataset shows that the dominant mode of variability in the current study and in the Dai scPDSI dataset for the 1901–2009 period are very similar, with a temporal evolution suggesting a trend toward drying.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialPlant developmental responses to climate change
Gray, S. B., & Brady, S. M. (2016) · Developmental Biology · doi:10.1016/j.ydbio.2016.07.023 · Cited by 621 · see citing works
Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health
McMichael, A. J. (2013) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmra1109341 · Cited by 622 · see citing works
Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects
Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., & Xia, Y. (2018) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2016rg000549 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
“Other factors, such as land surface interactions or feedbacks (e.g., reduced soil moisture and increased temperature) may also contribute to the atmospheric anomaly or occurrence of meteorological drought (Dai, 2011; Fernando et al., 2016; Kam, Sheffield, & Wood, 2014b; Koster & Suarez, 1995).”
BackgroundSpatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961–2012: A climatic perspective
Xu, K., Yang, D., Yang, H., Li, Z., Qin, Y., & Shen, Y. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.047 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
“Droughts occur over most parts of the world, both in wet and humid regions (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundAnticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems
Price, D. T., Alfaro, R. I., Brown, K. J., Flannigan, M., Fleming, R. A., Hogg, E. H., Girardin, M. P., Lakusta, T., Johnston, M., McKenney, D. W., et al. (2013) · Environmental Reviews · doi:10.1139/er-2013-0042 · Cited by 605 · see citing works
The Impact of Climate Change on the Cost of Bank Loans
Javadi, S., & Masum, A. A. (2020) · Journal of Corporate Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102019 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
Desert dust hazards: A global review
Middleton, N. (2016) · Aeolian Research · doi:10.1016/j.aeolia.2016.12.001 · Cited by 601 · see citing works
Scientists' warning on climate change and insects
Harvey, J. A., Tougeron, K., Gols, R., Heinen, R., Abarca, M., Abram, P. K., Basset, Y., Berg, M. P., Boggs, C. L., Jacques Brodeur, B., et al. (2022) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1002/ecm.1553 · Cited by 599 · see citing works
“In several different regions, the duration and intensity of prolonged (acute) droughts is increasing and is concomitant with above average temperatures, heat waves and often fire (Dai, 2011; Williams et al., 2022).”
BackgroundSwann, A. L. S., Hoffman, F. M., Koven, C. D., & Randerson, J. T. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1604581113 · Cited by 585 · see citing works
Yu, M., Li, Q., Hayes, M. J., Svoboda, M. D., & Heim, R. R. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3701 · Cited by 587 · see citing works
“KEY WORDS China; drought trends, severity and frequency; SPEI Received 13 March 2012; Revised 20 February 2013; Accepted 28 February 2013”
BackgroundInfluentialEcosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions
Ponce‐Campos, G. E., Moran, M. S., HUETE, A. R., Zhang, Y., Bresloff, C. J., Huxman, T. E., Eamus, D., Bosch, D. D., Buda, A. R., Gunter, S. A., et al. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature11836 · Cited by 586 · see citing works
Oceanic and terrestrial sources of continental precipitation
Gimeno, L., Stohl, A., Trigo, R. M., Domínguez, F., Yoshimura, K., Yu, L., Drumond, A. R. D. M., Durán‐Quesada, A. M., & Nieto, R. (2012) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2012rg000389 · Cited by 580 · see citing works
“However, sparsely populated regions such as the Amazon [Lewis et al., 2011] and Australia [Dai, 2011] have also been affected by an increasing frequency of extreme drought events.”
BackgroundInfluentialGlobal changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension
Orlowsky, B., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9 · Cited by 549 · see citing works
“The regions displaying consistent increases in dryness based both on the CDD and often soil moisture analysis are also identified as hot spots for changes in dryness based on other measures in, e.g., Sheffield and Wood (2008) and Dai (2010).”
BackgroundTirivarombo, S., Osupile, D., & Eliasson, P. (2018) · Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C · doi:10.1016/j.pce.2018.07.001 · Cited by 541 · see citing works
On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demand‐ to supply‐side thinking
Ellison, D., Futter, M. N., & Bishop, K. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x · Cited by 540 · see citing works
“Dai (2010), for example, neglects potential connections between forest cover and drought potential.”
BackgroundChanging global patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards
Güneralp, B., Güneralp, İ., & Liu, Y. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.002 · Cited by 515 · see citing works
Global patterns of phosphatase activity in natural soils
Margalef, O., Sardans, J., Fernández‐Martínez, M., Molowny‐Horas, R., Janssens, I. A., Ciais, P., Goll, D. S., Richter, A. A., Obersteiner, M. H., Asensio, D., et al. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01418-8 · Cited by 499 · see citing works
Carrão, H., Naumann, G., & Barbosa, P. (2016) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.012 · Cited by 488 · see citing works
A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., de Jager, A., McCormick, N. L., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., Magni, D., Masante, D., & Mazzeschi, M. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100593 · Cited by 458 · see citing works
Droughts in East Africa: Causes, impacts and resilience
Haile, G. G., Tang, Q., Sun, S., Huang, Z., Zhang, X., & Liu, X. (2019) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.015 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J. J., Cavazos, T., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Coppola, E., Evans, J. P., Geyer, B., et al. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0084.1 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
“…and meteorological drought projections based on global climatemodels (GCMs) of previous (e.g., CMIP3; Seager et al. 2007; Sheffield and Wood 2008; Dai 2011; Unauthenticated | Downloaded 03/07/22 01:04 PM UTC Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012) and current generations (CMIP5; Prudhomme et al. 2014;…”
BackgroundA process-based typology of hydrological drought
Loon, A. F. V., & Lanen, H. A. J. V. (2012) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012 · Cited by 433 · see citing works
“According to recent drought studies (EU, 2006, 2007; Sheffield, 2008; Feyen and Dankers, 2009; Dai, 2011), there is an increasing trend in drought extent and population affected by drought, which makes drought research and management a pressing issue.”
BackgroundA Remotely Sensed Global Terrestrial Drought Severity Index
Mu, Q., Zhao, M., Kimball, J. S., McDowell, N. G., & Running, S. W. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00213.1 · Cited by 427 · see citing works
Chen, H., & Sun, J. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00707.1 · Cited by 417 · see citing works
“Previous work has suggested that dry areas increased by approximately 1.74%decade21 from 1950 to 2008 (Dai 2011a).”
InfluentialA comprehensive drought monitoring method integrating MODIS and TRMM data
Du, L., Tian, Q., Yu, T., Meng, Q., Jancsó, T., Udvardy, P., & Huang, Y. (2012) · International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation · doi:10.1016/j.jag.2012.09.010 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
“The ustained drought in 2000–2002 may cause by El Niño-Southern scillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific which lead to weakned summer monsoons and thus drier conditions in East China Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundA multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century
Touma, D., Ashfaq, M., Nayak, M. A., Kao, S., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.011 · Cited by 410 · see citing works
“…that compare drought projections obtained using various drought indices, and show that the choice of methods to calculate drought characteristics can also introduce uncertainties in drought projections in the future periods (Dai, 2011; Keyantash and Dracup, 2002; Mo, 2008; Sheffield and Wood, 2007).”
InfluentialProjected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
Haile, G. G., Tang, Q., Hosseini‐Moghari, S., Liu, X., Gebremicael, T. G., Leng, G., Kebede, A., Xu, X., & Yun, X. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001502 · Cited by 417 · see citing works
“This is also in agreement with Dai (2011) who 10.1029/2020EF001502 Earth's Future showed that the occurrence of warming since the 1980s has contributed to the upward trend in global drought areas.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialRoot exudate metabolomes change under drought and show limited capacity for recovery
Gargallo‐Garriga, A., Preece, C., Sardans, J., Oravec, M., Urban, O., & Peñuelas, J. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-30150-0 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams
Jaeger, K., Olden, J., & Pelland, N. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.1320890111 · Cited by 381 · see citing works
“colonization and population recovery among stream fishes? Freshw Biol 54(7):”
BackgroundInfluentialHuman water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide
Wada, Y., van Beek, R., Wanders, N., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034036 · Cited by 400 · see citing works
“Recent studies by Dai (2011, 2013) and Sheffield et al (2012) suggest that anthropogenic global warming is likely responsible for intensifying meteorological droughts, e.g. enhanced evaporative demand and altered monsoon circulation over regions such as Africa and Asia.”
BackgroundAnthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities
AghaKouchak, A., Mirchi, A., Madani, K. M., Baldassarre, G. D., Nazemi, A., Alborzi, A., Anjileli, H., Azarderakhsh, M., Chiang, F., Hassanzadeh, E., et al. (2021) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000683 · Cited by 421 · see citing works
Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
Berg, A., & Sheffield, J. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0 · Cited by 396 · see citing works
Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019
Cunha, A. P. M. D. A., Zeri, M., Leal, K. R. D., Costa, L. C. O., Cuartas, L. A., Marengo, J. A., Tomasella, J., Vieira, R. M. D. S. P., Barbosa, A. A., Cunningham, C., et al. (2019) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos10110642 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
“Furthermore, drought severity is dependent not only on the duration, intensity, and geographical extent of a specific drought episode but also on the demands made by human activities and vegetation on a region’s water supplies [20].”
BackgroundDrought over East Asia: A Review
Zhang, L., & Zhou, T. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00259.1 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
“Evaluations of drought indices have been performed by Keyantash and Dracup (2002) and Dai (2011a).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialFlexas, J., Niinemets, Ü., Gallé, A., Barbour, M. M., Centritto, M., Díaz‐Espejo, A., Douthe, C., Galmés, J., Ribas‐Carbó, M., Rodrı́guez, P. L., et al. (2013) · Photosynthesis Research · doi:10.1007/s11120-013-9844-z · Cited by 372 · see citing works
“Furthermore, it has been suggested that climate change may exacerbate the present shortage of water and is likely to increase drought in some Earth regions (IPCC 2007), although this has not happened yet at the extent predicted (Dai 2011; Sheffield et al. 2012).”
BackgroundDroughts in Asian Least Developed Countries: Vulnerability and sustainability
Miyan, M. A. (2014) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.003 · Cited by 378 · see citing works
“At the same time, a widespread increase in droughts and spatially coherent shifts in drought regimes are expected with changing global circulation pattern (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundLi, X., Li, Y., Chen, A., Gao, M., Slette, I. J., & Piao, S. L. (2019) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.036 · Cited by 374 · see citing works
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections
Orlowsky, B., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
“Further regions of increased drought include South Africa, Central America/Mexico and North East Brazil, reconfirming results in Sheffield and Wood(2008b); Dai (2011).”
BackgroundResultDrought Stress in Plants: Causes, Consequences, and Tolerance
Salehi-Lisar, S. Y., & Bakhshayeshan-Agdam, H. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-28899-4_1 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts
Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Konings, A. G., & Shaw, J. D. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00919-1 · Cited by 362 · see citing works
Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought
Wanders, N., & Wada, Y. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.047 · Cited by 359 · see citing works
Evaluating global trends (1988–2010) in harmonized multi‐satellite surface soil moisture
Dorigo, W. A., de Jeu, R., Chung, D., Parinussa, R., Liu, Y., Wagner, W., & Fernández‐Prieto, D. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl052988 · Cited by 351 · see citing works
“Encapsulating precipitation, evaporation, infiltration, and runoff it is a suited state variable for studying climate variability and the severity and duration of drought events [Dai, 2011; De Jeu et al., 2012].”
Backgroundde Janvry, A., & Sadoulet, É. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003024545-19 · Cited by 351 · see citing works
Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure
Lanen, H. A. J. V., Wanders, N., Tallaksen, L. M., & Loon, A. F. V. (2013) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013 · Cited by 343 · see citing works
“…for present and future climate (e.g., Andreadis et al., 2005; Sheffield and Wood, 2008a, b; Shukla and Wood, 2008; Sheffield et al., 2009, 2012; Dai, 2011, 2013; Hannaford et al., 2010; Prudhomme et al., 2011; Stahl et al., 2011; Corzo Perez et al., 2011; Wehner et al., 2011; Van Huijgevoort…”
BackgroundEnhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions
Huang, J., Guan, X., & Ji, F. (2012) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-12-5391-2012 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
“El Nĩno-like SST warming in the Pacific caused shifts in the warmest SSTs in the Pacific, causing drought in East China (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundDrought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda
Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C. C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz, Y., Siebert, S., & Sebesvári, Z. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab225d · Cited by 333 · see citing works
Climate risk: The price of drought
Huynh, T., Nguyen, T., & Truong, C. (2020) · Journal of Corporate Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101750 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Ozone effects on crops and consideration in crop models
Emberson, L. D., Pleijel, H., Ainsworth, E. A., van den Berg, M., Ren, W., Osborne, S., Mills, G., Pandey, D., Dentener, F. J., Büker, P., et al. (2018) · European Journal of Agronomy · doi:10.1016/j.eja.2018.06.002 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
“Heavy rains will wash soluble pollutants out of the atmosphere and (thick) cloud cover will limit ozone forming photochemical reactions (Reddy et al., 2008; David and Nair, 2011).”
BackgroundAn Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health
McMichael, C., Barnett, J., & McMichael, A. J. (2012) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.1104375 · Cited by 329 · see citing works
Skansi, M. D. L. M., Brunet, M., Sigró, J., Aguilar, E., Groening, J. A. A., Bentancur, O., Castellón, Y., Amaya, R. L. C., Jácome, H., Ramos, A. M., et al. (2012) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.004 · Cited by 323 · see citing works
“Linear trend estimation of indices Although the RClimDex software also produces trend files for each index, in this study the estimated change is explained by a linear trend fitted over two different periods: (i) a common period (1969–2009) used for assessing local trends and (ii) the period 1950–2010 for which the li…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., & Vogt, J. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
On the observed variability of monsoon droughts over India
Kumar, K. N., Rajeevan, M. N., Pai, D. S., Srivastava, A. K., & Preethi, B. (2013) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2013.07.006 · Cited by 321 · see citing works
“Many of the current climate models are capable of simulating the precipitation deficits during the recent droughts over North America and Africa (Dai, 2011).”
BackgroundInfluentialDrought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of environment and society
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda, M. D., Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N. A., Fuchs, B. A., et al. (2016) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1154 · Cited by 324 · see citing works
Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change
Padrón, R. S., Gudmundsson, L., Decharme, B., Ducharne, A., Lawrence, D. M., Mao, J., Peano, D., Krinner, G., Kim, H., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2020) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0594-1 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Zhao, T., & Dai, A. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00363.1 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Self-citationChallenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle
Hegerl, G. C., Black, E. C. L., Allan, R. P., Ingram, W., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker, A., et al. (2014) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00212.1 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
“…the scope of this paper to provide a full review of water cycle changes or to discuss regional changes (see Collins et al. 2013; Sánchez-Lugo et al. 2014), changes in the biosphere and cryosphere, river discharge (see Dai et al. 2009), or drought (see Dai 2011a,b, 2013a; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
- Authors
- Dai, A.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Dai, Aiguo
- ORCID
- Dai, Aiguo
- Venue
- WIREs Climate Change
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-10-19
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 45-65
- ISSN
- 1757-7780 (ISSN-L)
- 1757-7799
- OpenAlex
- W2165301409
- Cited by
- 3,523
- References
- 136
- Citations by year
- 2026: 173 · 2025: 241 · 2024: 317 · 2023: 283 · 2022: 348 · 2021: 327 · 2020: 295 · 2019: 296 · 2018: 227 · 2017: 221 · 2016: 209 · 2015: 185 · 2014: 141 · 2013: 120 · 2012: 99
- FWCI
- 73.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- drought, global warming, aridity trends, tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, ENSO, Sahel drought, climate model projections, drought forecasting, Asian monsoon, atmospheric circulation changes
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