Quantifying the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time
Open accessAbstract
Summary: Despite over 140 million SARS‐CoV‐2 infections worldwide since the beginning of the pandemic, relatively few confirmed cases of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection have been reported. While immunity from SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is probable, at least in the short term, few studies have quantified the reinfection risk. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review to synthesise the evidence on the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time. A standardised protocol was employed, based on Cochrane methodology. Electronic databases and preprint servers were searched from 1 January 2020 to 19 February 2021. Eleven large cohort studies were identified that estimated the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 reinfection over time, including three that enrolled healthcare workers and two that enrolled residents and staff of elderly care homes. Across studies, the total number of PCR‐positive or antibody‐positive participants at baseline was 615,777, and the maximum duration of follow‐up was more than 10 months in three studies. Reinfection was an uncommon event (absolute rate 0%–1.1%), with no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time. Only one study estimated the population‐level risk of reinfection based on whole genome sequencing in a subset of patients; the estimated risk was low (0.1% [95% CI: 0.08–0.11%]) with no evidence of waning immunity for up to 7 months following primary infection. These data suggest that naturally acquired SARS‐CoV‐2 immunity does not wane for at least 10 months post‐infection. However, the applicability of these studies to new variants or to vaccine‐induced immunity remains uncertain.
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Analyses of reinfection with Omicron in the United Kingdom and Qatar support the finding of increased reinfection risk associated with Omicron.
“This finding has now been supported by analyses of reinfection with Omicron in the United Kingdom and Qatar ( 14 – 16 ).”
From Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa (2021) · cites this paper as [14]
Data from Qatar suggest that protection provided by prior infection is similar for Alpha and Delta.
“data from Qatar suggest that protection provided by prior infection is similar for Alpha and Delta ( 14 ).”
From Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa (2021) · cites this paper as [14]
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Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa
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- Authors
- O Murchu, E., Byrne, P., Carty, P. G., De Gascun, C., Keogan, M., O’Neill, M., Harrington, P., & Ryan, M.
- Affiliations
- Health Information and Quality Authority George’s Court Dublin Ireland
- Health Information and Quality Authority (IE)
- UCD National Virus Reference Laboratory Dublin Ireland
- Beaumont Hospital (IE)
- Trinity College Dublin (IE)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Reviews in Medical Virology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2021-05-27
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- e2260-e2260
- ISSN
- 1052-9276 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-1654
- PMC
- PMC8209951
- OpenAlex
- W3165369455
- Cited by
- 84
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 11
- FWCI
- 6.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Reviews in Medical Virology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lenus, The Irish Health Repository (Dr Steevens Hospital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Health Research Board (HRB‐CICER‐2016‐1871)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, COVID-19 pandemic, waning immunity, natural immunity, healthcare workers, nursing homes, whole genome sequencing, SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccine-induced immunity
- MeSH terms
- Reinfection, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Aged, Humans, Pandemics
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