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Regression analysis often provides useful forecasts.
“We have ample evidence that regression analysis often provides useful forecasts (Armstrong 1985; Allen and Fildes 2001).”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Allen and Fildes 2001
Allen and Fildes note that since 1985 there has been a substantial increase in the attention paid to ex ante forecast comparisons in published papers.
“Allen and Fildes (2001) note that since 1985 there has been a substantial increase in the attention paid to ex ante forecast comparisons in published papers.”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Allen and Fildes (2001)
The mountains of articles on autocorrelation testing contrast with the near absence of studies on the impact of autocorrelation correction on ex ante forecast performance.
“They also describe the evidence on the principles. For example, on the matter of evidence on one of the diagnostic statistics they state (p. 311), 'The mountains of articles on autocorrelation testing contrast with the near absence of studies on the impact of autocorrelation correction on [ ex ante ] forecast performance.'”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Allen and Fildes (2001)
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SURVEY vs ARCH MEASURES OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*
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Self-citationThe tourism forecasting competition
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Self-citationDIRECT MULTI‐STEP ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING
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Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data
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Illusions in Regression Analysis
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Significance tests harm progress in forecasting
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Data Collection Opportunities and Challenges for Skilled Construction Labor Demand Forecast Modeling
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Self-citationReplacement Beef Cow Valuation under Data Availability Constraints
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Forecasting on Complex Datasets with Association Rules
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Simulated Annealing Sales Combining Forecast in FMCG
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- Authors
- Allen, P. G., & Fildes, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Massachusetts System (US)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- ORCID
- Fildes, Robert
- Venue
- International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
- Publisher
- Springer US
- Published
- 2001
- Pages
- 303-362
- ISSN
- 0884-8289 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4211085029
- Cited by
- 85
- References
- 163
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 19.61
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International series in management science/operations research/International series in operations research & management science (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Diverse Scientific and Economic Studies
- Keywords
- econometric forecasting, vector autoregression, dynamic structure, lag selection, error correction model, cointegration, unit root tests, misspecification tests, parameter constancy, forecast performance, judgmental forecasting, long-term forecasting
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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