Risking the World’s End
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the doomsday device example, Self Sampling boosts the posterior probability of the doomsday hypothesis from one in a million to close to one.
“Since there are more centers in glorious-future worlds than doomsday worlds by a factor of billions, the posterior probability of the doomsday hypothesis is boosted from one in a million to close to one.”
From Multiple Universes and Self-Locating Evidence (2022) · cites this paper as Leslie 1990
Cites
Inflationary universe: A possible solution to the horizon and flatness problems
Guth, A. H. (1981) · Physical Review D · doi:10.1103/physrevd.23.347 · Cited by 9,983 · see citing works
American Philosophical Quarterly
(2023) · American Philosophical Quarterly · doi:10.5406/21521123.60.4.09 · Cited by 3,244 · see citing works
Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay
Coleman, S., & De Luccia, F. (1980) · Physical Review D · doi:10.1103/physrevd.21.3305 · Cited by 1,537 · see citing works
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (A)
(1893) · Rendiconti del Circolo Matematico di Palermo Series 2 · doi:10.1007/bf03017680 · Cited by 492 · see citing works
Is the Universe a Vacuum Fluctuation?
Tryon, E. P. (1973) · Nature · doi:10.1038/246396a0 · Cited by 436 · see citing works
Dynamics of false-vacuum bubbles
Blau, S. K., Guendelman, E. I., & Guth, A. H. (1987) · Physical review. D. Particles, fields, gravitation, and cosmology/Physical review. D. Particles and fields · doi:10.1103/physrevd.35.1747 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
The anthropic principle and its implications for biological evolution
Carter, B. (1983) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.1983.0096 · Cited by 375 · see citing works
An obstacle to creating a universe in the laboratory
Farhi, E., & Guth, A. H. (1987) · Physics Letters B · doi:10.1016/0370-2693(87)90429-1 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Turner, M. S., & Wilczek, F. A. (1982) · Nature · doi:10.1038/298633a0 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Gauge Theories of the Forces between Elementary Particles
Hooft, G. ’. (1980) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0680-104 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Physical cosmology and philosophy
Leslie, J. (1990) · Macmillan , Collier-Macmillan eBooks · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationDawson, J. M. (1989) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0389-54 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Veltman, M. J. G. (1986) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1186-76 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Hut, P., & Rees, M. J. (1983) · Nature · doi:10.1038/302508a0 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Elementary Particles and Forces
Quigg, C. (1985) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0485-84 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Anthropic Principle, World Ensemble, Design
Leslie, J. (1982) · American Philosophical Quarterly · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationMatthews, D. L., & Rosen, M. D. (1988) · Scientific American · doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1288-86 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
The Universe: Inflation Out Of Chaos
Linde, A. D. (1985) · The New Scientist · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ginzburg, V. L. (1981) · Zemlia i Vselennaia · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 20 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
(2002) · Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) · Cited by 421 · see citing works
Is our Universe likely to decay within 20 billion years?
Page, D. N. (2008) · Physical review. D. Particles, fields, gravitation, and cosmology/Physical review. D. Particles and fields · doi:10.1103/physrevd.78.063535 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Philosophical Implications of Inflationary Cosmology
Knobe, J., Olum, K. D., & Vilenkin, A. (2006) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axi155 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
The Doomsday Argument and the Number of Possible Observers
Olum, K. D. (2002) · The Philosophical Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1467-9213.00260 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Multiple Universes and Self-Locating Evidence
Isaacs, Y., Hawthorne, J., & Sanford Russell, J. (2022) · The Philosophical Review · doi:10.1215/00318108-9743809 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Conflict between anthropic reasoning and observation
Olum, K. D. (2004) · Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.0003-2638.2004.00452.x · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Time and the Anthropic Principle
Leslie, J. (1992) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/101.403.521 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationUniversal doomsday: analyzing our prospects for survival
Gerig, A., Olum, K. D., & Vilenkin, A. (2013) · Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics · doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2013/05/013 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
The Doomsday Argument without Knowledge of Birth Rank
Monton, B. (2003) · The Philosophical Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1467-9213.00297 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Observational selection effects and probability
Bostrom, N. (2000) · London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument
ECKHARDT, W. (1993) · Mind · doi:10.1093/mind/102.407.483 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Too Soon for Doom Gloom?Preprint
Kopf, T., Krtouš, P., & Page, D. N. (1994) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.gr-qc/9407002 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Bayes, urns, and doomsday: A reply to Barker and Schrage
Leslie, J. (1992) · Interchange · doi:10.1007/bf01450190 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationPhilosophical Implications of Inflationary CosmologyPreprint
Knobe, J., Olum, K. D., & Vilenkin, A. (2003) · PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0302071 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
The future of intelligence in the Universe: a call for humility
Friederich, S., & Wenmackers, S. (2023) · International Journal of Astrobiology · doi:10.1017/s1473550423000101 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Anomalous Observers in the Subjectively Identical Reference ClassPreprint
Schneider, M., & Olum, K. (2013) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1304.2625 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Doomsday Argument in Many WorldsPreprint
Gerig, A. (2012) · arXiv (Cornell University) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1209.6251 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Barker, E. (1992) · Interchange · doi:10.1007/bf01450188
Schrage, G. (1992) · Interchange · doi:10.1007/bf01450189
Causality and the Doomsday ArgumentPreprint
Phillips, I. (2005) · CogPrints (University of Southampton)
- Authors
- Leslie, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Guelph (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Leslie, John
- Venue
- Interchange
- Published
- 1990-03
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 49-58
- ISSN
- 0020-5230 (ISSN-L)
- 0826-4805
- 1573-1790
- OpenAlex
- W1974171762
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 20
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 10.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Interchange (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Nuclear Issues and Defense
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural Studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
