Modeling the Impact of Genetic Screening Technologies on Healthcare: Theoretical Model for Asthma in Children

Abstract

Background and objective This study focuses on the potential impact of genetic screening technologies on healthcare. Genetic screening for asthma in children was chosen as a case study to explore the cost effectiveness of applying early genetic screening to infants, and preventive treatment to the population at risk. Early intervention could prevent progression and facilitate clinical management of the disease. From the elite group of genetic markers that have been associated with asthma-related phenotypes, ADAM33 was the first published candidate gene detected by a positional cloning approach, marking the entry of asthma research into the genomic era. The model was, therefore, initially set for an ex ante analysis of the cost effectiveness of applying the preventive program to an infant population at risk, i.e. infants presenting wheezing episodes during the first year of life, and the ADAM33 ST+7 genetic marker, with the idea of expanding to further markers and their combinations lat a later date. Methods In accordance with the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, four categories of asthma were considered. A Markov model was constructed, consisting of six mutually exclusive disease states (including healthy and dead states) with a simulation horizon of 100 years and a cycle length of 1 year. We define a scenario where early genetic screening was applied to infants presenting wheezing episodes during the first year of life and a preventive treatment to those childre…