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Development of a volcanic risk management system at Mount St. Helens—1980 to present

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Wright, Heather M. N., Driedger, Carolyn L., Pallister, John S., Newhall, Christopher G., Clynne, Michael A., Ewert, John W.·2023·Bulletin of Volcanology
DOI 10.1007/s00445-023-01663-y
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Abstract

Here, we review volcanic risk management at Mount St. Helens from the perspective of the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) experience over the four decades since its 18 May 1980 climactic eruption. Prior to 1980, volcano monitoring, multidisciplinary eruption forecasting, and interagency coordination for eruption response were new to the Cascade Range. A Mount St. Helens volcano hazards assessment had recently been published and volcanic crisis response capabilities tested during 1975 thermal unrest at nearby Mount Baker. Volcanic unrest began in March 1980, accelerating the rate of advance of volcano monitoring, prompting coordinated eruption forecasting and hazards communication, and motivating emergency response planning. The destruction caused by the 18 May 1980 eruption led to an enormous emergency response effort and prompted extensive coordination and planning for continuing eruptive activity. Eruptions continued with pulsatory dome growth and explosive eruptions over the following 6 years and with transport of sediment downstream over many more. In response, USGS scientists and their partners expanded their staffing, deployed new instruments, developed new tools (including the first use of a volcanic event tree) for eruption forecasting, and created new pathways for agency internal and external communication. Involvement in the Mount St. Helens response motivated the establishment of response measures at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Since assembly during the early and mid-1990s, volcano hazard working groups continue to unite scientists, emergency and land managers, tribal nations, and community leaders in common cause for the promotion of risk reduction. By the onset of renewed volcanic activity in 2004, these new systems enabled a more efficient response that was greatly facilitated by the participation of organizations within volcano hazard working groups. Although the magnitude of the 2004 eruptive sequence was much smaller than that of 1980, a new challenge emerged focused on hazard communication demands. Since 2008, our understanding of Mount St. Helens volcanic system has improved, helping us refine hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. Some professions have worked independently to apply the Mount St. Helens story to their products and services. Planning meetings and working group activities fortify partnerships among information disseminators, policy and decision-makers, scientists, and communities. We call the sum of these pieces the Volcanic Risk Management System (VRMS). In its most robust form, the VRMS encompasses effective production and coordinated exchange of volcano hazards and risk information among all interested parties.

Overview

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TL;DR

This review traces how volcanic risk management at Mount St. Helens evolved from the 1980 climactic eruption through 2023, arguing that a non-formalized but integrated Volcanic Risk Management System (VRMS) emerged through repeated crises, partnerships, and communication advances. It emphasizes that scientific monitoring and forecasting improved, but long-term engagement, uncertainty communication, and forecasting of collapse, blast, and explosive magnitude remain difficult.

Key findings

  • The 18 May 1980 eruption killed 57 people and caused an estimated $1.1 billion in damages (not inflation-adjusted); the debris avalanche traveled up to 29 km, the lateral blast reached 28 km, the vertical column reached 30 km, and a delayed lahar reached the Columbia River about 120 km away.
  • Forecasting improved after 1980: increasing seismicity, gas emission, and deformation repeatedly preceded dome extrusion and explosions, allowing successful forecasts before all but two dome-building eruptions, though eruption size and style remained hard to forecast.
  • By 2004, existing monitoring, coordination plans, and volcano hazard working groups enabled a more efficient response; about 2,500 people were evacuated from Johnston Ridge Observatory, and the Joint Information Center handled approximately 800 media inquiries during 3–13 October 2004.
  • The paper identifies the VRMS as encompassing scientists, land and emergency managers, tribal nations, schools, parks, news media, and community leaders; since 1995, Cascades Volcano Observatory scientists attended more than 70 comprehensive volcano hazard working group meetings.

Methods

  • Narrative review and synthesis of USGS experience at Mount St. Helens over four decades, organized into seven time periods: 1970s, March–May 1980, 18 May 1980, late May 1980–1986, 1986–2004, 2004–2008, and 2008–2023.
  • Draws on published scientific literature, agency reports, monitoring records, event trees, hazard assessments, emergency coordination plans, and oral communications with responders, scientists, and communicators.
  • Main analysis is qualitative historical synthesis, using Table 1 and figures to trace changes in monitoring, forecasting, hazards communication, education, and emergency management.

Limitations

  • The paper’s “Challenges” section states remaining limitations: maintaining monitoring networks, forecasting sector collapse and lateral blasts, forecasting explosive magnitude, forecasting small/phreatic explosions, sustaining long-term multi-agency participation, institutionalizing two-way science communication, communicating uncertainty, linking preparedness to volcano state, and long-term risk mitigation in a multi-risk environment.
  • Evident from the text: this is a retrospective, USGS-centered review rather than a formal outcome evaluation; it relies heavily on cited literature, agency documents, and oral histories, and it notes that robust evaluation of volcanic hazard outreach effectiveness “remains to be completed.”

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s00445-023-01663-y

Cites

163 of 163 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

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Figures

Image 1
CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 2
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 3 a , b Incident Command structures used by responders during the 1980 and 2004 eruptions demonstrate increasing complexity in the number and types of roles required for adequate response. a Modified
Fig. 3 a , b Incident Command structures used by responders during the 1980 and 2004 eruptions demonstrate increasing complexity in the number and types of roles required for adequate response. a ModifiedCC-BY · From the PDF
Image 4
CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 5
CC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 5 An event tree for Mount St. Helens eruptive forecasting, largely following the format of one used in 2004 (Newhall and Pallister 2015). Probabilities of events on the left depend strongly on monitoring data or observations, whereas those on the right are more
Fig. 5 An event tree for Mount St. Helens eruptive forecasting, largely following the format of one used in 2004 (Newhall and Pallister 2015). Probabilities of events on the left depend strongly on monitoring data or observations, whereas those on the right are moreCC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 6 Graphical cartoon of the Mount St. Helens magmatic system demonstrates greater spatial, compositional, and process-specific understanding than was available in 1980. This graphic was constructed from parts of depictions shown by Pallister et al. (2008, 2017), Olson (2016), Karakas et al. (2017), Blatter et al. (2017), and Wanke et al. (2019a). Mafic magmas generated in the mantle intrude and lodge in the lower crust east of Mount St. Helens where they fractionate to more silicic compositions. Evolved magma batches ascend within a preheated crustal column. A key feature of the cartoon is that magma batches are deflected westward where they encounter a dense body (perhaps an early to mid-Tertiary pluton) in the mid-crust. Ascent continues until magma intersects a crustal weakness (perhaps the St. Helens seismic zone; Weaver et al. 1987) and ascends vertically to a shallow magma reservoir. The shallow reservoir is composed mostly of crystal mush that intermittently contains small bodies of andesite/dacite magma
Fig. 6 Graphical cartoon of the Mount St. Helens magmatic system demonstrates greater spatial, compositional, and process-specific understanding than was available in 1980. This graphic was constructed from parts of depictions shown by Pallister et al. (2008, 2017), Olson (2016), Karakas et al. (2017), Blatter et al. (2017), and Wanke et al. (2019a). Mafic magmas generated in the mantle intrude and lodge in the lower crust east of Mount St. Helens where they fractionate to more silicic compositions. Evolved magma batches ascend within a preheated crustal column. A key feature of the cartoon is that magma batches are deflected westward where they encounter a dense body (perhaps an early to mid-Tertiary pluton) in the mid-crust. Ascent continues until magma intersects a crustal weakness (perhaps the St. Helens seismic zone; Weaver et al. 1987) and ascends vertically to a shallow magma reservoir. The shallow reservoir is composed mostly of crystal mush that intermittently contains small bodies of andesite/dacite magmaCC-BY · From the PDF
Fig. 7 Effective Volcanic Risk Management System at Mount St. Helens requires trusting partnerships among scientists, policy managers, decision-makers, communicators, and the community at risk. Here, the volcano observatory includes US Geological Survey employees and partners from other scientific and governmental agencies and academia. Communication partners include professional communicators, including news and social media journalists,
Fig. 7 Effective Volcanic Risk Management System at Mount St. Helens requires trusting partnerships among scientists, policy managers, decision-makers, communicators, and the community at risk. Here, the volcano observatory includes US Geological Survey employees and partners from other scientific and governmental agencies and academia. Communication partners include professional communicators, including news and social media journalists,CC-BY · From the PDF

Verification

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Citations

Cites

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Metadata

Authors
Wright, H. M. N., Driedger, C. L., Pallister, J. S., Newhall, C. G., Clynne, M. A., & Ewert, J. W.
Affiliations
United States Geological Survey (US)
Corresponding author
Wright, Heather M. N.
ORCID
Venue
Bulletin of Volcanology
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2023-09-08
Volume
85
Issue
10
ISSN
  • 0258-8900 (ISSN-L)
  • 1432-0819
DOI
10.1007/s00445-023-01663-y
OpenAlex
W4386544133
Semantic Scholar
48742ddaf3f42684401f7e9ebaf6207beeb1b0d6
Cited by
10
References
163
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3
FWCI
2.94
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
Bulletin of Volcanology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
U.S. Geological Survey
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
  • Social Sciences › Communication › Public Relations and Crisis Communication
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Safety and Risk Management
Keywords
Mount St. Helens, volcanic risk management, volcanic hazard assessment, eruption forecasting, volcano monitoring, emergency planning, hazard communication, inter-agency coordination, Cascade Range volcanoes, risk mitigation

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