Probabilistic load flow analysis for evaluation of photovoltaic grid connection applications
Open accessAbstract
Uncertainty in power system analysis is increasing, mainly due to decentralized generation and the related spatial distribution of power plants, as well as the inherent volatility of renewable energy sources. In Austria, this development is reflected in a high number of photovoltaic grid connection applications in recent years. On the consumption side, there are changes in grid loads due to the increasing electrification of society, which is reflected, for example, in a rising number of electric vehicles. These aspects of uncertainty in generation and consumption must be considered in the planning process of distribution grids. A proper way to include uncertainty in the hosting capacity analysis of power grids are probabilistic load flow calculation methods. This paper provides an introductory overview of probabilistic load flow analysis, available calculation methods, required input parameters and the interpretation of results. This paper focuses on photovoltaics, so a correlation analysis of historical power generation measurements of spatially distributed photovoltaic power plants in Austria is presented. Furthermore, an insight into the development of Austrian photovoltaic grid connection applications from recent years is given.
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Probabilistic hosting capacity assessment methods and probabilistic load flow tools have been introduced to quantify the impact of high PV penetration on voltage profiles in large sets of realistic LV networks.
“In parallel, probabilistic hosting capacity assessment methods and probabilistic load flow tools have been introduced to quantify the impact of high PV penetration on voltage profiles in large sets of realistic LV networks [95,96].”
From Voltage Regulation in Rooftop PV-Rich Distribution Networks: A Review and Detailed Case Study (2026) · cites this paper as [96]
Section 2, “Hosting capacity of distribution grids” (p. 469), identifies probabilistic assessment as a method for PV hosting capacity in LV grids and voltage violations as a key constraint. Section 5 describes probabilistic load flow for assessing overvoltage, but its reference to more than 24,000 Austrian LV feeders concerns a separate feeder-classification study. The paper does not establish that probabilistic tools quantified voltage profiles across a large set of realistic LV networks. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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Research works printed but not linked: 19
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Voltage Regulation in Rooftop PV-Rich Distribution Networks: A Review and Detailed Case Study
Rahman, O., Elphick, S., & Robinson, D. A. (2026) · Electronics · doi:10.3390/electronics15051074 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Wohlfart, P., & Renner, H.
- Affiliations
- Graz University of Technology (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Wohlfart, Peter
- ORCID
- Renner, Herwig
- Venue
- e+i Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik
- Published
- 2024-12
- Volume
- 141
- Issue
- 7-8
- Pages
- 468-475
- ISSN
- 0932-383X (ISSN-L)
- 1613-7620
- OpenAlex
- W4405246490
- Cited by
- 3
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3
- FWCI
- 0.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- e+i Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Klima- und Energiefonds
- Graz University of Technology
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Optimal Power Flow Distribution
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality › Power System Reliability and Maintenance
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Power System Optimization
- Keywords
- probabilistic load flow, photovoltaic grid connection, hosting capacity, power system uncertainty, distributed generation, renewable energy variability, electric vehicles, distribution network planning
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