The 4-2-1 family structure in China: a survival analysis based on life tables
Open accessAbstract
Concern about ensuring old-age support in 4-2-1 families-consisting of four older people (paternal and maternal grandparents), two parents, and only one child-has risen with the increase in the number of families with only one child. In this article, using life table data and probability theory, we examine survival probabilities and coexistence durations for China's 4-2-1 family structure, as well as urban and rural differences and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We find that once the grandparents have all entered the "old-age" phase (over 60 years old), the probability that all four will survive is only 0.61. The four grandparents are likely to coexist for 16 years after the birth of their grandchild, then one will die and the remaining three will probably spend another 8 years together; finally, after another dies, the surviving two will coexist for another 5 years. There is no significant difference between urban and rural families in terms of the duration of their coexistence. As the ages at which the parents had their child rise, the durations become shorter. The pressure of old-age support in such families is not as severe as expected.
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A large number of so-called '4-2-1' or '4-2-2' families emerged, in which a couple must raise one or two children of their own and also support four aging parents.
“A large number of so-called ‘4-2-1’ (12) or ‘4-2-2’ (13) families emerged, in which a couple must not only raise one or two children of their own, but also support four aging parents.”
From Caring alone: older adult care burdens, practices, and structural imbalances among China's one-child generation (2025) · cites this paper as [12]
The Introduction (page unavailable) defines a 4-2-1 family as four grandparents, two parents and one child, and reports projections of many such families. But the Introduction and Discussion explicitly reject the claim that the couple must support all four older people at once; the paper says the probability is very slim. Citation 13, not this paper, is attached to “4-2-2.” (LLM, conf=0.88)
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“A large number of so-called ‘4-2-1’ (12) or ‘4-2-2’ (13) families emerged, in which a couple must not only raise one or two children of their own, but also support four aging parents.”
- Authors
- Jiang, Q., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J. J.
- Affiliations
- Xi'an Jiaotong University (CN)
- ORCID
- Jiang, Quanbao
- Venue
- European Journal of Ageing
- Published
- 2011-05-20
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 119-127
- ISSN
- 1613-9372 (ISSN-L)
- 1613-9380
- PMC
- PMC5547295
- OpenAlex
- W2123188306
- Cited by
- 48
- References
- 11
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 0.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- European Journal of Ageing (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Social Science Fund of China
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Keywords
- one-child policy, old-age support, intergenerational coexistence, survival probability, grandparents, urban-rural differences, age at first birth, family structure, China
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