Cited by 61Cardiovascular Health and Risk FactorsHealthcare Systems and Public HealthHealth Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention

Forty-year coronary mortality trends and changes in major risk factors in the first 10 years of follow-up in the seven countries study

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Menotti, Alessandro, Lanti, Mariapaola, Kromhout, Daan, Blackburn, Henry, Nissinen, Aulikki, Dontas, Anastasios, Kafatos, Antony, Nedeljkovic, Srecko +1 more·2007·European Journal of Epidemiology

Abstract

Time trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a 40-year follow-up were studied in the Seven Countries Study. Thirteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry were enrolled in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece and Japan) for a total of 10,628 subjects. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at entry and at the 10-year follow-up examination and coronary heart disease mortality data collected during 40 years. During the 40-year follow-up, the hazard rate of the Weibull parametric distribution (annual conditional risk of death) for CHD mortality tended to slightly decline in the US, Finnish, Dutch and Japanese cohorts, moderately increased in Italy and exponentially increased in cohorts of Serbia and Greece. A strong positive association was found between the shape of the hazard curve, describing the acceleration of the hazard, and a score of population mean risk factor changes (serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence) observed during the first 10 years of follow-up, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 between the two indicators. The countries with a relative decline in the annual hazard function were the same where, during the same historical period, large decreases in official death rate from CHD were recorded, and viceversa. The acceleration in mortality risk for CHD mortality in different countries, described by the shape of the Weibull distribution, is related to changes in mean levels of major coronary risk factors.

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Crossref · 10.1007/s10654-007-9176-4

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Authors
Menotti, A., Lanti, M., Kromhout, D., Blackburn, H., Nissinen, A., Dontas, A., Kafatos, A., Nedeljkovic, S., & Adachi, H.
Affiliations
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • University of Minnesota (US)
  • University of Crete (GR)
  • Kurume University (JP)
Corresponding author
Menotti, Alessandro
Venue
European Journal of Epidemiology
Published
2007-09-07
Volume
22
Issue
11
Pages
747-754
ISSN
  • 0393-2990 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-7284
OpenAlex
W2048186816
Cited by
61
References
28
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 5
FWCI
5.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • European Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
  • STM:n Hallinnonalan avoin julkaisuarkisto (Julkari) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Istituto Superiore di Sanità
  • Science and Engineering Research Board
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
Keywords
coronary heart disease mortality, mortality trends, cardiovascular risk factors, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking prevalence, Seven Countries Study, cross-national comparison
MeSH terms
Adult, Coronary Artery Disease, Europe, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Japan, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Risk Factors, United States, Cohort Studies

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