An industry perspective on current QSP trends in drug development
Open accessAbstract
2023 marks the 10th anniversary of Natpara’s submission to the US FDA, which led to the first recorded regulatory interaction where a decision was supported by Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology (QSP) simulations. It had taken about 5 years for the timid QSP discipline to emerge as an effective Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) tool with visible impact in the pharmaceutical industry. Since then, the presence of QSP in the regulatory environment has continued to increase, to the point that the Agency reported 60 QSP submissions in 2020 alone, representing ~ 4% of their annual IND submissions [1]. What sort of industry mindset has enabled QSP to reach this level of success? How does QSP fit within the MIDD paradigm? Does QSP mean the same to Discovery and to Clinical Development projects? How do ‘platforms’ compare to ‘fit-for-purpose’ QSP models in an industrial setting? Can QSP and empirical Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling be complementary? What level of validation is required to inform drug development decisions? This article reflects on all these questions, in particular addressing those audiences with limited line-of-sight into the drug industry decision-making machinery.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Examples of QSP contexts of use in early clinical development include first-in-human dose projections, recommended phase 2 or 3 dose optimization/justification, mechanistic biomarker-based patient stratification, and mechanistic insight into combination treatment or dose optimization across indications.
“In this setting, examples of QSP CoU could be first in human (FIH) dose projections, recommended phase 2 or 3 dose (RP2D/RP3D) optimization/justification; mechanistic biomarker-based patient stratification or providing mechanistic insight into combination treatment or dose optimization across indications (8) (9).”
From Best Practices on QSP Model Reporting for Regulatory Use: perspectives from ISoP QSP SIG Working Group (2026) · cites this paper as [9]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Kuemmel, C., Yang, Y., Zhang, X., Florian, J., Zhu, H., Tegenge, M., Huang, S., Wang, Y., Morrison, T., & Zineh, I. (2020) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12479 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Friedrich, C. (2016) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12056 · Cited by 87 · see citing works
Cucurull‐Sanchez, L., Chappell, M. J., Chelliah, V., Amy Cheung, S. Y., Derks, G., Penney, M., Phipps, A., Malik‐Sheriff, R. S., Timmis, J., Tindall, M. J., et al. (2019) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12381 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citationNext-Generation Model-Based Drug Discovery and Development: Quantitative and Systems Pharmacology
Allerheiligen, S. R. B. (2010) · Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics · doi:10.1038/clpt.2010.81 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Kirouac, D. C., Cicali, B., & Schmidt, S. (2019) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.12390 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Bai, J. P. F., Schmidt, B. J., Gadkar, K. G., Damian, V., Earp, J. C., Friedrich, C., van der Graaf, P. H., Madabushi, R., Musante, C. J., Naik, K., et al. (2021) · The AAPS Journal · doi:10.1208/s12248-021-00585-x · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 37
- [1]Chan JR et al (2022) Current practices for QSP model assessment: an IQ consortium survey. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn,: p. 1–13 PMC9371373 35953664
- [2]Peterson MC, Riggs MM (2015) FDA Advisory Meeting Clinical Pharmacology Review utilizes a quantitative systems Pharmacology (QSP) Model: a Watershed Moment? CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 4(3):e00020 26225239 PMC4394612 · DOI · Paper page
- [5]Vicini P, van der Graaf PH (2013) Systems pharmacology for drug discovery and development: paradigm shift or flash in the pan? Clin Pharmacol Ther 93(5):379–381 23598453 · DOI · Paper page
- [6]Danhof M (2022) Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Conference (QSPC). From PKPD to QSP [Online] 2022 [cited June 30th 2023]; Available from: https://www.qspc.eu/qspc
- [9]International Consortium for Innovation & Quality in Pharmaceutical Development. [Online] [cited June 30th 2023]; Available from: https://iqconsortium.org/ 36477720
- [11]Zineh I (2019) Quantitative systems Pharmacology: A Regulatory Perspective on translation. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 8(6):336–339 30924594 PMC6618141 · DOI
- [12]Bai JPF et al (2021) Quantitative systems pharmacology: Landscape analysis of regulatory submissions to the US Food and Drug Administration. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 10(12):1479–1484 34734497 PMC8673997 · DOI
- [14]Madabushi R et al (2022) Review: role of model-informed Drug Development approaches in the lifecycle of Drug Development and Regulatory decision-making. Pharm Res 39(8):1669–1680 35552984 PMC9097888 · DOI
- [15]Krishnaswami S et al (2020) MID3: Mission impossible or model-informed drug Discovery and Development? Point-counterpoint discussions on Key challenges. Clin Pharmacol Ther 107(4):762–772 31955417 PMC7158219 · DOI
- [16]Marshall S et al (2019) Model-informed drug Discovery and Development: current industry Good Practice and Regulatory expectations and Future perspectives. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 8(2):87–96 30411538 PMC6389350 · DOI · Paper page
- [17]Manolis E et al (2017) Commentary on the MID3 good practices Paper. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 6(7):416–417 28653481 PMC5529732 · DOI
- [18]Galluppi GR et al (2021) Industrial Perspective on the benefits realized from the FDA’s model-informed Drug Development Paired Meeting Pilot Program. Clin Pharmacol Ther 110(5):1172–1175 33991429 PMC8596613 · DOI
- [19]Madabushi R et al (2019) The US Food and Drug Administration’s model-informed Drug Development Paired Meeting Pilot Program: early experience and impact. Clin Pharmacol Ther 106(1):74–78 31081932 · DOI · Paper page
- [22]Bradshaw EL et al (2019) Applications of quantitative systems Pharmacology in Model-Informed Drug Discovery: perspective on Impact and opportunities. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 8(11):777–791 31535440 PMC6875708 · DOI
- [24]Polasek TM, Rostami-Hodjegan A (2020) Virtual twins: understanding the data required for Model-Informed Precision Dosing. Clin Pharmacol Ther 107(4):742–745 32056199 · DOI
- [25]Venkatakrishnan K, van der Graaf PH (2022) Toward Project Optimus for Oncology Precision Medicine: multi-dimensional dose optimization enabled by quantitative clinical pharmacology. Clin Pharmacol Ther 112(5):927–932 36264968 · DOI
- [27]Crisp A et al (2018) Practical experiences of adopting assurance as a quantitative framework to support decision making in drug development. Pharm Stat 17(4):317–328 29635777 · DOI
- [29]Agoram B (2014) Evaluating systems Pharmacology Models is different from evaluating standard pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models, vol 3. Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology, CPT, p 101. 2 PMC3944115 24552986
- [30]Androulakis IP (2022) Towards a comprehensive assessment of QSP models: what would it take? J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn PMC9922790 35962928
- [31]Sové RJ et al (2020) QSP-IO: a quantitative systems Pharmacology Toolbox for mechanistic Multiscale modeling for Immuno-Oncology Applications. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 9(9):484–497 32618119 PMC7499194 · DOI
- [32]Scheuher B et al (2023) Towards a platform quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model for preclinical to clinical translation of antibody drug conjugates (ADCs). J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn PMC11576657 37787918
- [33]Lu J et al (2014) An in-silico model of lipoprotein metabolism and kinetics for the evaluation of targets and biomarkers in the reverse cholesterol transport pathway. PLoS Comput Biol 10(3):e1003509 24625468 PMC3952822 · DOI
- [34]Karelina T et al (2017) Studying the Progression of Amyloid Pathology and its Therapy using Translational Longitudinal Model of Accumulation and distribution of amyloid Beta. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 6(10):676–685 28913897 PMC5658285 · DOI
- [35]Klinke DJ (2008) 2nd, Integrating epidemiological data into a mechanistic model of type 2 diabetes: validating the prevalence of virtual patients Ann Biomed Eng, 36(2): p. 321 – 34 18046647
- [36]Schmidt BJ et al (2013) Alternate virtual populations elucidate the type I interferon signature predictive of the response to Rituximab in rheumatoid arthritis. BMC Bioinformatics 14:221 23841912 PMC3717130 · DOI
- [37]Gadkar K et al (2014) A mechanistic systems Pharmacology Model for prediction of LDL cholesterol lowering by PCSK9 antagonism in human dyslipidemic populations. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 3:e149 25426564 PMC4260002 · DOI · Paper page
- [38]Allen RJ, Rieger TR, Musante CJ (2016) Efficient generation and selection of virtual populations in quantitative systems Pharmacology models. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 5(3):140–146 27069777 PMC4809626 · DOI
- [39]Rieger TR et al (2018) Improving the generation and selection of virtual populations in quantitative systems pharmacology models. Prog Biophys Mol Biol 139:15–22 29902482 · DOI · Paper page
- [40]Milberg O et al (2019) A QSP Model for Predicting clinical responses to Monotherapy, Combination and Sequential Therapy following CTLA-4, PD-1, and PD-L1 checkpoint blockade. Sci Rep 9(1):11286 31375756 PMC6677731 · DOI
- [41]Wang H et al (2019) In silico simulation of a clinical trial with anti-CTLA-4 and anti-PD-L1 immunotherapies in metastatic breast cancer using a systems pharmacology model. R Soc Open Sci 6(5):190366 31218069 PMC6549962 · DOI
- [42]Wang H et al (2020) Conducting a virtual clinical trial in HER2-Negative breast Cancer using a quantitative systems Pharmacology Model with an epigenetic modulator and Immune Checkpoint inhibitors. Front Bioeng Biotechnol 8:141 32158754 PMC7051945 · DOI
- [43]Susilo ME et al (2023) Systems-based digital twins to help characterize clinical dose-response and propose predictive biomarkers in a phase I study of bispecific antibody, mosunetuzumab, in NHL. Clin Transl Sci PMC10339700 36908269
- [44]Cheng Y et al (2022) Virtual Populations for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models, in Systems Medicine, J.P.F. Bai and J. Hur, Editors. Springer US: New York, NY. p. 129–179 35437722
- [45]Zhang T et al (2022) Two heads are better than one: current landscape of integrating QSP and machine learning: an ISoP QSP SIG white paper by the working group on the integration of quantitative systems pharmacology and machine learning. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 49(1):5–18 35103884 PMC8837505 · DOI
- [46]Braakman S, Pathmanathan P, Moore H (2022) Evaluation framework for systems models. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 11(3):264–289 34921743 PMC8923730 · DOI
- [47]Ramanujan S et al (2019) A Flexible Approach for Context-Dependent Assessment of quantitative systems Pharmacology models. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 8(6):340–343 30983158 PMC6617835 · DOI
- [49]Musuamba FT et al (2021) Scientific and regulatory evaluation of mechanistic in silico drug and disease models in drug development: building model credibility. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 10(8):804–825 34102034 PMC8376137 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Saini, A., & Farnoud, A. (2025) · CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.70127 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Zaph, S., Shtylla, B., Chang, S., Cheng, Y., Gong, J. Q. X., Gulati, A., Hansson, E., Kulesza, A., Ratushny, A. V., Reali, F., et al. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.07811
- Authors
- Cucurull-Sanchez, L.
- Affiliations
- GlaxoSmithKline (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Cucurull-Sanchez, Lourdes
- Venue
- Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics
- Published
- 2024-03-05
- Volume
- 51
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 511-520
- ISSN
- 1567-567X (ISSN-L)
- 1573-8744
- PMC
- PMC11576823
- OpenAlex
- W4392450309
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 10
- FWCI
- 25.05
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Pharmaceutical studies and practices
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computational Theory and Mathematics › Computational Drug Discovery Methods
- Keywords
- quantitative systems pharmacology, model-informed drug development, regulatory submissions, FDA, industry perspectives, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling, model validation, drug development decision-making
- MeSH terms
- Drug Development, Network Pharmacology, Drug Industry, Humans, Models, Biological, United States, United States Food and Drug Administration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review